Will retweeted
Peter Lynch: "I went down more than the market everytime! I just don't worry about it"
Will retweeted
This is one of my hand drawn charts from the ’80s I framed up for the office.
I have spent my life trying to demonstrate that markets are not random collections of disconnected events. There is an underlying structure to their movements, and that structure involves the interaction of time, price, capital flows, and human confidence.
Will retweeted
地震警報システムが、マグニチュード9.9という誤った地震警報を発しました。私は、これが単なる誤作動ではないと考えています。観測機器は、何なのか分からない信号を正確に記録していたのです。
今夜、日本に関する最新の地震予測を発表します。
note.com/geoscience16
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
気象庁によると、緊急地震速報の誤報はカムチャツカ半島付近の実際のM6.9地震をシステムがM9.9と過大推定した処理によるもので、サイバー攻撃の可能性は否定され原因調査中。未知の信号に関する公式情報はありません。
k-tai.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/news/2148…
news.infoseek.co.jp/article/yomiur…
Will retweeted
docomo系のケータイは今回の緊急地震速報に反応しなかったそうです（自分もそう）。こちらにドコモからの謝罪があります。
xitter.cf/docomo/status/21110274…
歴史上、最大マグニチュードはM9.5で、M9.9はちょっとあり得ないため、ドコモは緊急地震速報の各報の検証段階で、M9.5超の地震には反応しないような仕組みを加えてたのかも。
なお、マグニチュードは数学的にはずっと大きな数値も可能ですが、M10あたりだと、動いた断層の長さは１万メートルくらいになってしまう（という話）。というか、そんな長さの断層は地球上にはないため、M9.9というマグニチュードはあり得ないことになる（あるとすれば隕石衝突か）。
さすがに今回の件は誤検知などで済ませられる問題でなく、気象庁のシステム自体の妥当性も再考する必要がありそう（気象庁地震は会見で、「処理するソフトウェアに何らかの問題があった」と認めている）。
【お詫び】緊急地震速報（緊急速報「エリアメール」）が配信されなかった事象について
2026年10月16日（金）午後0時40分頃、カムチャツカ半島付近で発生した地震に伴い気象庁から配信された緊急地震速報について、ドコモをご利用のお客さまに緊急速報「エリアメール」が配信されない事象が発生しました。
本事象の原因は当社のシステム不具合と判明しました。
現在、解消に向け早急に対応を進めておりますが、事象解消までエリアメールが配信されない場合がございます。
詳細はこちら
docomo.ne.jp/info/notice/pag…
お客さまには、ご迷惑とご心配をおかけしましたこと、深くお詫び申し上げます。
Will retweeted
【お詫び】緊急地震速報（緊急速報「エリアメール」）が配信されなかった事象について
2026年10月16日（金）午後0時40分頃、カムチャツカ半島付近で発生した地震に伴い気象庁から配信された緊急地震速報について、ドコモをご利用のお客さまに緊急速報「エリアメール」が配信されない事象が発生しました。
本事象の原因は当社のシステム不具合と判明しました。
現在、解消に向け早急に対応を進めておりますが、事象解消までエリアメールが配信されない場合がございます。
詳細はこちら
docomo.ne.jp/info/notice/pag…
お客さまには、ご迷惑とご心配をおかけしましたこと、深くお詫び申し上げます。
Will retweeted
There was recently an overnight attack on supermarket refrigeration systems in France that forced temperatures as high as 50 C or 122 F across 150 stores. Food had to be discarded after six hours in high temperatures. Every aspect of life that operates online is fair game in cyberwarfare. zurl.co/9pB5X
Will retweeted
Breaking: Michael Burry says the market is "within 0-9 months of a significant top"
Most of his short book consist of:
• Nasdaq 100 $QQQ puts
• Semiconductor ETF $SMH puts
Both positions expire in Spring 2027 and are 20% out of the money
Burry remains short $ORCL, $MET, $CAT, $PLTR and claims "This last few months of the bull could be wild," per his Substack
Will retweeted
Oil tanker rates from the Middle East to Asia are EXPLODING:
Daily tanker rates have surged to $1.068 million for voyages to India, $906,000 to China and $904,000 to Japan.
Meanwhile, at least 10 empty very large crude carriers, alongside several Suezmax tankers, have stopped or reversed course while approaching Fujairah in the UAE amid escalating Iranian attacks.
This threatens a key workaround that has helped Persian Gulf oil exports recover toward prewar levels, as shuttle tankers carry crude through the Strait of Hormuz to larger vessels waiting outside the waterway.
The system is becoming harder to sustain as tanker availability tightens, ship-to-ship transfers keep vessels occupied for longer, and rising security risks make routes through the region more costly.
If empty supertankers continue retreating, fewer receiving vessels could be available, forcing shuttle tankers to remain occupied longer and slowing crude shipments.
The disruption comes as tanker availability is already tight, pushing shipping costs to record levels.
The risk for the global economy is no longer just higher oil prices, but whether enough tankers will be willing and available to move the oil.
Will retweeted
Japanese investors are DUMPING US Treasuries:
Japanese investors sold a net -¥4.45 trillion, or -$28 billion, of long-term US government bonds in the first half of 2026, marking the first half-year net sale since 2022.
This marks a sharp reversal from previous periods, when Japanese investors purchased between roughly ¥2 trillion and ¥11 trillion in US government debt per half-year.
The shift comes as higher yields at home make Japanese government bonds increasingly attractive relative to foreign debt, particularly when currency-hedging costs and rising fiscal risks are taken into account.
Furthermore, Japanese pension funds, banks and insurers are redirecting more capital toward domestic bonds, while quarterly retail applications for Japanese government bonds have surged to a record ~¥3.1 trillion in Q3 2026.
Japan is not abandoning foreign assets altogether, with investors continuing to buy overseas equities and selected foreign government bonds, including German, Italian and UK debt.
Rising Japanese bond yields pose an increasing threat to US bonds and stocks.
Will retweeted
$JPM JPMorganChase Q3 FY26.
• Net revenue +8% Y/Y to $50.9B ($0.3B miss)
• Net income +6% Y/Y to $15.3B
• Equities trading +49% vs. fixed income -4%
• Asset & Wealth AUM +13% Y/Y to $5.2T
• FY26 NII guide raised by $0.7B to ~$106.2B
Will retweeted
🚨 THE NEXT GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS COULD START WITH CHINA BUYING OIL
Ken Griffin says oil could have been near $200. Instead, it’s around $100.
WHY? CHINA.
China dramatically reduced its oil purchases to protect refiners and control inflation, helping absorb a massive global supply shock.
Even some of Wall Street’s biggest commodity experts underestimated the scale.
What happens when China starts buying oil again?
And that’s only HALF the story.
China has stacked gold for 23 straight months and also announced internationalizing its Chinese Yuan for global trade and settlement for the first time ever.
BRICS is rolling out their gold-backed, blockchain-based trade and settlement system, that completely bypasses U.S. dollars.
Hong Kong and Shanghai have built gold-settlement plumbing that can clear without going through the dollar. Russia and China have transacted a record flow with oil-gold transactions.
China has drained nearly $800 Billion liquidity from their U.S. Treasuries holdings. It's their biggest sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis.
The CCP can never replace the dollar, but they’re taking advantage of the situation in real time.
Why it matters: If confidence in Treasuries cracks, paper assets do not drift lower politely. Gold can reprice violently. China wants an escape hatch if that day comes.
This was exactly warned by the famous City of London banker @LordBelgrave at the start of the year.
The dollar does not lose because China posts a gold contract. It loses if America refuses to get its fiscal house in order.
Will retweeted
🚨Global banking sector is in trouble.
Bank stocks are crashing in the US, Europe and Asia all together as bond yields hit multi decade highs.
In the US, the KBW bank index, which tracks the biggest US banks, is down 12% in the last 2 months.
Goldman Sachs is down -22%
Bank of America -17%
Wells Fargo -9%
JPMorgan -9%
Citigroup -10%
In Europe, the Euro Stoxx Banks index is down 6% in the last month
On Oct 7 alone, the STOXX Europe Banks index fell 3.5%, with Deutsche Bank, UniCredit and Société Générale each down more than 4%
In Asia:
DBS, OCBC and UOB fell up to 9% this week.
Banks hold huge amounts of government bonds, and when yields rise the value of those bonds falls.
US banks held $326.7B in unrealized bond losses at the end of Q2, per FDIC
The 10 year yield has since risen above 5%, and is now above 5.2%, so those losses are likely even bigger now.
Investors fear a repeat of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, when it was forced to sell bonds at a loss as depositors pulled their money out.
