My column on the S&P 500 in the Globe and Mail:
Why index investors may unknowingly be putting themselves at great risk theglobeandmail.com/investin…
WhiteFalcon retweeted
Why index investors may unknowingly be putting themselves at great risk theglobeandmail.com/investin…
Great writeup on the CEO of a core holding $NU
David Vélez is the founder of Nubank, a bank with 140 million customers and a market capitalization of $60 billion.
When he started the business in 2013, no one thought it would work, not even his investors. He has faced down regulators, oligopolies, and corruption to build Latin America's largest digital bank. Now he is bringing Nubank to the United States, where he faces his biggest challenge yet.
@gabi_imarques, who grew up four miles from Nubank's headquarters in Brazil, spent time with @velez_david in São Paulo, where the business started, and in Miami, its latest beachhead.
She profiles a man who is no stranger to a fight, having grown up in Medellín, Colombia, when the city was at war with Pablo Escobar. Six-year-old Vélez would pull on layers of sweaters before stepping outside, hoping, as a child might, that the extra padding would cushion any bullets.
colossus.com/article/david-v…
WhiteFalcon retweeted
More than 95% of banking around the world still runs through the same expensive branches. Customers pay for that infrastructure whether they use it or not.
We built Nu because that math never made sense to us. We were told it was impossible in Brazil. Then in Mexico. Then in Colombia. Now, more than 140 million people in these three countries trust us with their financial lives.
So the next step became obvious: keep expanding the model beyond our core markets.
Today, we are launching Nu in the United States through a partner bank model, with a full suite of financial products for everyday banking. And, for people whose lives already cross borders, we are also introducing Nu Global, a multi-currency digital account allowing fee-free, fast money movement across more than 35 countries.
There are certainly still those who think this is impossible. That disbelief has always been our best fuel.
Every time we entered a new market, the incumbents had more capital, more branches, more history. Every time, we brought our culture: people who choose the harder problem on purpose, teams that act like owners, and an obsession with fighting complexity and making customers love us fanatically.
The US market is the largest and most competitive financial market in the world. But despite the number of players, many customers still face complexity, high costs, and fragmented financial lives. Our answer is the one we have been executing in Latin America for thirteen years: no branches, technology built from the ground up, a low cost to serve — and that efficiency returned to customers as better yields, no fees, and service they don't have to fight for.
We have believed since day one that consumer-obsessed digital banking is the future of retail banking. That was never a Brazilian thesis, or a Latin American one. It is a global one.
Our launch of Nu US and Nu Global are where we start proving it: we are no longer building the largest digital bank in Latin America; we are building a global one.
And we are still in the first minute of the first half.
nu.com/en/newsroom/company/n…
WhiteFalcon retweeted
I would have expected the market to start discerning between SaaS that is impacted by AI, SaaS that needs to evolve, and SaaS that benefits from AI. Analytical SaaS, Creative SaaS is in category 1, System or Record, Human workflow and Engagement and Productivity are in category 2 and Infrastructure SaaS and Cybersecurity are in 3. This constant paranoid reaction of the market will continue to create buying opportunities for the discerning.
WhiteFalcon retweeted
Where this is actually leading
For the longest time consulting was seen as the dirtiest of dirty revenue source in software. Yuck. Who wants it. Push it down to other orgs if ppl really need it. Do the bare min, at lowest cost.
I think it's about time a lot of software companies re-thought this approach.
One of the biggest things that give me pause re software
If you had a magic genie that can make custom software that perfectly fits your business needs, perfectly, as a single vendor, for $10k a year
It's easy to see that demand is going to shift to that vs existing model
It's very important to distinguish what exactly we are betting against here.
WhiteFalcon retweeted
Replying to @Claudia_Sahm
The Fed has destroyed the financial system by explicitly monetizing the government, implicitly stepping in to monetize fiscal impropriety via an unlimited repo backstop, and generating extreme and capricious redistributions of wealth to favour asset owners. They’ve engineered a position of fiscal dominance and can’t tighten rates effectively, either. Since they blew out the balance sheet rate hikes on that balance sheet just lead to more monetization. And the 3% of GDP fiscal blowout on rate hikes in 2023 shows that. At that time, the Fed had printed so much money (in excess of both a 15yr fiscal blowout and even the demands of a euphoric bubble in 2021-22), there was a latent $2.5tr in RRP. They did nothing to neutralize or absorb that liquidity and then it automatically seeped out as repo markets tightened, reflating the bubble from 2023 to now. The financial markets now rest on an unprecedented amount of repo lending to NBFIs bc the Fed accommodated both the fiscal supply, and the repo market, and bailed out the sovereign at par with the BTFP.
The Fed doesn’t understand the second order consequences of what they do, how the balance sheet works, or the socially disastrous impacts of their policy. They’ve brought the currency to the brink of a monetized dish wars spiral and seem to have no awareness of this if Powell’s comments on gold are anything to go by.
They care not practitioners - all the academics there use single-stage models (when the economy is a dynamic non-equalizing cycle), unsullied by contact with reality. And they don’t ever learn from the systematic errors their models produce.
To answer your question the FOMC should be replaced by a systematic macro algorithm based on projected potential real GDP growth. Nothing more. No inflation bias, no sovereign or financial backstop. Easy to build. The emotional human involvement here is not necessary and extremely corrosive.
FY 2025 Letter is up
It has been more than 4 years since we began!
In this letter, we talk about our top holdings and how the portfolio is positioned going forward.
whitefalconcap.com/letters
WhiteFalcon retweeted
"Why should companies pay for SaaS (HR/CRM/ERP/etc.) when they could just vibe code them?"
I get variations of this question or comment with some regularity (granted, it's sometimes just me talking to myself).
Here are some biased (but hopefully, well-considered) thoughts:
1) I am a big proponent and user of vibe coding (what I call "agentic coding"). I do it every day, 7 days a week, including Sundays. It's amazing.
2) My company, HubSpot is a software company. We have hundreds of professional engineers -- just about all of them use AI for product development too. They are brilliant and know how to build production-grade products.
3) Even with this powerful army of talent, the number of internal, core SaaS applications that we have replaced with a vibe-coded variant is exactly ZERO. The number of applications we plan to replace is also exactly ZERO.
4) It's not the absence of talent that keeps us from rolling our own SaaS apps, it's the presence of focus. It would be silly to try and replace our HR, team collaboration, expense tracking and 100+ other SaaS apps we use when we can just buy them. Just doesn't make sense.
5) That's us -- as a software company at some scale. If you're a non-software company it makes even less sense for you. Doesn't matter how good the AI coding tools get. Let's say you *could* vibe code a replacement for that SaaS app you're using, who's going to maintain it? Who's going to keep up with industry trends? What are you going to do when the 20-something genius that vibe coded it over a weekend leaves the company? Who do you call when there's a major bug?
6) If you're a Fortune 500 company at some scale, perhaps you could pull this off for some discrete use cases and the tradeoffs are worth it. You have an IT/Engineering department that is larger than the population of some countries. You can take on the pain in return for the positives.
For the millions of others, my advice is:
Spend every calorie possible on creating value for your customers.
WhiteFalcon retweeted
Okay let me clear this debate (longer post but needed).
As someone who’s worked at market-neutral L/S pods and at a 40-ticker LO fund - I can safely say both are retarded ways to invest and both sides can stfu. The only true (and correct) way to invest is one that champions flexibility and adaptability whereby the PM is free to make directional bets with varying levels of concentration, turnover, net exposure, and leverage. This set up has increasingly become rare, but is the only path for the best investors.
Pods and LOs are alike are constructed in a way to obscure the mediocrity and downright incompetence of the vast majority of institutional active managers. What do you do when 90% of people in an industry are shit at their jobs? You create these institutional constraints to convince LPs they need you and excuse underperformance. It’s no surprise passive has taken majority share.
L/S pods are retarded because stock prices don’t move on fundamentals over the short term, yet pods are comped on daily P&L and have no ability to have 1-2 year duration for when the fundamentals do matter. Hence a big disconnect between theory and application. You want market neutral? Stick with FX, commodities, or quant. But stop pretending your “deep fundamental research” will consistently work in a portfolio that is a hodgepodge of beta and factor hedges with very high turnover and strict volatility limits. In other words the pod style is literally fugazi and everyone is just praying each day random price movements don’t zero them out.
LO mutual funds are equally as retarded on the other end of the spectrum. Pure beta exposure with performance that is consistently below their index. Most of these managers can’t pick winning stocks because they think emulating fundamental analysis 101 gives them the right to generate alpha. You want to outperform via quality? Yeah, get in line next to the other thousand managers. What’s worse - if you want to outperform via quality then you need much higher degree of portfolio concentration and much higher time horizon. Living by annual performance with 40 tickers that seldom change simply won’t cut it.
WhiteFalcon retweeted
🎙️ [NEW PODCAST] Compounders, Value Today, and Value Tomorrow with Balkar Sivia, Founder & Portfolio Manager @WhiteFalconCap
🔑 Key takeaways:
- Why Balkar runs an unconstrained, opportunistic strategy
- The three engines powering White Falcon’s portfolio
- Real-world examples of narrative shifts and turnaround opportunities
- Lessons on value traps, AI, and evolving as an investor
🎧 Listen: microcapnewsletter.substack.…
📺 Watch now: youtube.com/watch?v=lXMozewL…
#Investing #Compounders
Telus revised its offer for Telus International $TIXT from US$3.4 to US$4.5 per share - a 32% bump
WhiteFalcon retweeted
Value investing is partially dead bc investors can't think for themselves and believe that applying the same single formula grants them a God given right to outperform for 50 yrs.
unavailable
$NU
All this for 16x 2026e E
Estuve revisando los resultados de $NU esta mañana, y la verdad que el motor es un violín. Ejecutan mejor y más rápido que cuando yo estaba ahí.
Q2’25: Datos duros
• Ingresos: USD 3.7B (+40% YoY FXN)
• Utilidad neta: USD 637M (+42% YoY) esto es un run rate de $2.5B! 🔥| ROE: 28%
• ARPAC: USD 12.2/mes (+18% YoY) y aún muy por debajo de bancos tradicionales (~USD 35 estimado), con un costo/cliente: USD 0.80 flat.
• Ratio de eficiencia: 28.3% (gasta USD 0.28 para generar USD 1; subió por vesting de RSUs y +marketing, pero el apalancamiento sigue intacto). Los incumbentes tienen aproximadamente el doble ~37–40 % como se ve en el gráfico abajo.
Clientes:
• Total: 122.7M (+17% YoY)
• Brasil: 107.3M (>60% de adultos)
• México: 12M (~13% de adultos)
• Colombia: 3.4M (~10% de adultos)
Crédito (la estrella del trimestre):
• Cartera total: USD 27.3B (+40% YoY; +8% QoQ)
• Con garantía (secured): +158% YoY en clientes activos (6.8M).
Qué es préstamos con garantía? Son prestamos respaldados por nómina (payroll), FGTS o activos/inversiones usados como colateral (p. ej., “Nu Limite Garantido”). Eso baja las pérdidas esperada y mejora el NIM ajustado por riesgo y consumo de capital más eficiente.
• Calidad de activos: NPL 15–90d 4.4% (–30 bps QoQ); 90+ en 6.6% (estacional).
Es decir, $NU logró mejorar la morosidad temprana, y el leve aumento en la mora dura es normal para la época del año, sin señales de deterioro estructural.
Depósitos: USD 36.6B (+41% YoY).
NII: USD 2.1B; NIM 17.7% y NIM ajustado por riesgo 9.2%.
En LatAm, pocos bancos pueden crecer 40% anual, con más de 120M de clientes, mejorando eficiencia y controlando la mora. $NU todavía monetiza menos que la banca tradicional, pero si mantiene este ritmo, el gap de ARPAC es solo cuestión de tiempo… y ahí el apalancamiento operativo va a ser brutal.
Vale 20 USD
NO ES RECOMENDACIÓN.
Prepping for a sale?
$LYFT
investor.lyft.com/news-and-e…
$EPAM
Finally returning to growth!
Lots of good color on the call on AI and enterprises doing it themselves.
WhiteFalcon retweeted
As everyone marvels at the performance of the U.S. stock market, just remember that in CAD, Aussie Dollar and Yen terms, the S&P 500 is barely up more than 1% for the year; flat against the Kiwi and Sterling; and down 3% in peso terms, down 5% in euro terms and down 6% in Swedish krona terms. Oh, and down 20% in gold terms. I hate to rain on the parade, but I think I just did. The illusion of a bull market through the lens of an ever depreciating DXY, which just broke below 98 after failing once again at the 50-day trendline.
Q2 Letter is up:
whitefalconcap.com/letters


















