Tracy Wells

Jenrick was runner up in the Tory Party’s 2024 leadership election. He is arguably their most effective digital age campaigner. And yet the Conservative Party and its leader Kemi Badenoch are almost certainly stronger following his expulsion for allegedly plotting to defect to Reform. Don’t take my word for it. I have spoken to Tory MPs today from all wings and factions in the party. And there was no hint of sadness or regret at his brutal removal. While none of them have explicitly said “good riddance,” they believe that his presence as a constant rival to Badenoch was too painful a reminder of the party’s modern history of civil war. And they are also convinced that Badenoch’s decisiveness in expelling him reinforces her growing reputation for decisiveness and shows a defter political touch than she manifested during her first months as leader. Her party is still somewhere between six and 10 percentage points behind Reform in the polls. And Reform is continuing to successfully woo councillors from the Tories. But its lead over the Conservatives has been on a narrowing trend in recent weeks. Badenoch’s confidence and new ruthless streak has been visible for a while: she showed it when authorising her officials to character assassinate the former Conservative chancellor Nadhim Zahawi a few days ago, after he defected to Nigel Farage’s team. By the way, no MP believes the reports that Badenoch found out by pure chance about his alleged treachery when one of her colleagues happened upon his draft resignation speech. “We assume one of his team ratted him out but wants protecting” said a senior Tory. This is a return to politics as high grade soap opera. As for Reform, it is moot whether its leadership in the polls would be reinforced or weakened by the potential high-profile recruitment. As Michael Gove said on my show last night, with every Tory defection Reform looks less like a breath of new political air and more like an agglomeration of retreads from the last discredited government. Farage and Reform were benefiting, in this analysis, from being the devils we didn’t know. There is a risk that with every Tory recruit they become tainted not only by the last government’s conspicuous flaws but also its perceived addiction to skullduggery and backstabbing.