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๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก๐ญ๐๐๐ก (Alpha Ideas Meet Update)
Summary: ๐๏ธ
โช๏ธCDMO with major ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐&๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง-๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ฉโ
& high customer stickiness
โช๏ธ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฒ ๐๐% ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ - to drive FY26 growth
โช๏ธGreenfield expansion by Marโ26 to take overall ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐.๐-๐๐ฑ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ซ๐จ๐ซ๐โ
โ
โช๏ธOnboarded clients like ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ข๐๐ง๐๐ (24,000Cr MCap Co), ๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐จ๐ง (๐๐ก๐ซ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐๐ค๐๐), among others
โช๏ธTargeting other high growth consumer segments like ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ, ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐จ๐, ๐๐ญ๐
โช๏ธ1st in Maharashtra to get FSC 22000 approval in food category - unlocks ๐๐ข๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐, ๐๐, ๐๐ญ๐
(Further, my analysis on projections FY26E to FY28E at the end)
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Detailed notes: ๐
๐
๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐ข๐ง๐ง๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง:
1. Influx is the owner of the formulation with majority of the customers.
2. Eg for Gummies, Protein Bars, etc all base formulations R&D done by Influx
3. Customer stickiness due to importance of taste, texture etc in such products & customer needs consistency
๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ:
1. FSC 22000 - 1st in Maharashtra to get this certification in food category - unlocks direct access to USA, EU, etc
2. First to get Nigeria approval in food category
๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฌ:
1. Serving the top D2C brands such as Carbamide Forte (avg 5-10k ratings per product on Amazon), Tata 1mg, etc
2. Recently onboarded marquee clientele such as Eris Lifescience (24,000Cr MCap co), La Renon (ChrysCap backed), among others
๐๐๐ฐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฌ:
1. Got approval for Aerosols in Marchโ2025
2. Cosmetics is an area of focus - have developed capabilities for colour cosmetics
3. Pet food is an emerging market - not easy to crack and Influx has been investing in this since 2022 and expect to reap rewards now
๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง:
1. ๐ฝ๐ง๐ค๐ฌ๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ก๐ - ๐พ๐ค๐ข๐ฅ๐ก๐๐ฉ๐๐ก๐ฎ ๐ค๐ ๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฃ๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐ง๐ช๐๐ก๐จ
- Capacity at existing unit increased by 60% *
- Includes new granulation line, capsule line (increases capsule capacity by 4x)
โถ๏ธSo revenue potential in my view should be 170-180Cr from this unit
2. ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ก๐ - ๐๐ช๐ฉ ๐ค๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ช๐ฃ๐๐จ:
- Expected completion by Marโ25/Aprโ25
- This unit will increase overall capacity by 2.5-3.0x
โฉ๏ธSo revenue potential from both units will be 450-500Cr
View on Promoter Mr Munir: Superb clarity & immense Passion for the business
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No projections shared by management. But my view:
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซโ
(Brownfield expansion)
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซโ
(New unit at 40-50% utilisation)
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซ
(Ramp up new unit to 85-90% utilisation)
A very strong consumer wellness co trading at 15x FY26E ; 9x FY27E vs peers / proxies at 30-35PE
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* Unlocked 40% of capacity at existing unit i.e. utilisation which was 93% would now be at 53-55%. This means 60-65% increase in overall capacity
NOTE: Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก๐ญ๐๐๐ก (Update)
A ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐๐ / ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐
Main Board quality company on SME platform
โ
Promoter quality + Manufacturing facility - Both are TOP Notch
Detailed analysis๐๐ป
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Co is engaged in CDMO (end-to-end right from ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐) for Nutraceutical brands
๐น๐๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ฉ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ:
1. Carbamide Forte (products - superb ratings on Amazon)
2. โ Divine nutrition - one of a well known brand in supplement etc
3. โ In talks with ON nutrition (US based- considered one of the top of industry)
๐น๐๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ:
- Net debt free
- โ Historical consistent Operating Cash Flows (OCF) to EBITDA of 50-60%
- โ Continuous capex over last 3-4 yrs funded out of internal accruals
๐น๐๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ - ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ (๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง) & ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐ฒ
- Setting up separate lines for these out of IPO funds
- Focus is on increasing this contribution from 5% currently to 15-20% in next 3 yrs
๐นCapex from IPO funds : ๐.๐๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฉ๐ซโ๐๐ (9 months from now)
- ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ซ โ
๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฑ
๐นFinancials/Projections (conservative):
FY25: Rev 105Cr ; PAT 13.4Cr
FY26E: Rev 175Cr ; PAT 23-24Crโ
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซ โ
Margin profile in line with peers like Zeon Lifesciences (unlisted) gives additional comfort
๐นPeer comparison (can check tagged tweet) - ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐๐% ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ / ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฌ
- No direct competitors, covered proxies (CDMO pharma, Nutraceutical brand owners, Consumer contract mfr)
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Disc: Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐
๐๐ก๐ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฒ
Currently mainly doing B2G and B2B
But, recently acquired Ricardo Elevators, which is a ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฏ๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ (๐๐๐)
- Home Elevators is a 2000Cr market seeing much stronger growth than traditional elevator market
- This is a brand play which entails higher multiples
โ
Ricardoโs ๐ฆ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ก๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ง ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ซ
โ
๐๐+ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐
๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ง๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฌ:
LTโs R&D, Manufacturing , execution capabilities
+
Ricardoโs product range, Brand and retail presence
Video below gives a gist of Ricardo (itโs a bit dated)
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Massive expansion:
LT has plans to expand its manufacturing facility to ๐.๐๐ฑโ
๐จ๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ (to commence in 12 months)
FY26E: Rev 110Cr ; PAT 17Cr
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ (๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐๐๐ซ๐๐จ) ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ซโ
(Based on order book - ss 3)
Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ง ๐๐๐ (Update)
I have added at these levels (after a guidance cut, stock has been hammered disproportionately)
Recent positives:
1๏ธโฃAppointed Anand Mohan as Global Sales Head - prior experience 7yrs at Propel (one of the leading domestic competitors - ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ฒ๐ซ๐ฌ)
2๏ธโฃOrders worth 34 Cr won in Decโ25, expecting most to be shipped out in Q4 itself
๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ง ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐๐ฏ๐ ๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ซ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐
๐๐๐ & ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐ญ ๐๐๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐%+ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐ง๐๐ฑ๐ญ ๐-๐ ๐ฒ๐ซ๐ฌ
๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ฎ๐๐ญ, ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐ & ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ฉ ๐ ๐๐ญ ๐๐-๐๐ ๐๐
(Covered in detail below)
Current MCap just 210Cr
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1๏ธโฃ๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ฎ๐๐ญ:
- Among the top domestic players in this segment. Competing with likes of Propel, Puzzolana, etc
- High acceptance in export markets gives further conviction on its product quality
2๏ธโฃ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ:
- 110,000 sqft automated facility
- Strong In house R&D capabilities
- Revenue potential of 250Cr+ from existing infra itself
3๏ธโฃ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ:
- Covered above - appointed sales head of Propel
โ
This move will help boost exports in markets like Africa, Russia, Middle East (exports was impacted due to US tariffs)
Ground level checks done with the competitors on the product, business seasonality , etc all of which checks out
No buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ง ๐๐๐ - ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐
(MCap 227 Cr)
Sector - Capital Goods ๐ญ
Taurian is manufacturer of crushers, screeners, etc used mainly in mining, infra, etc
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Amazing product and top notch quality (ground checks)
๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐-๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ๐๐ซ๐ฌ & ๐ ๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ (This product requires higher tech / engineering)
Taurian is the only these few players having ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ฌ/๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐ฌ (Upto 800TPH)โ
โ
๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ - ๐&๐, ๐๐๐, ๐๐๐ญ๐, ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐
110,000 sqft state of the art manufacturing facility (unlike majority SMEs having jugadu facilities 2-3 galas of 10,000 sqft each)
๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐% ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐ฑ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐๐๐ซ๐จ๐จ๐ฆโ
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Dynamic 2nd gen promoter - he will easily grow the business 70-80% CAGR
FY25: Rev 74Cr ; PAT 10Cr
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ + ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซโ
FY27E: Rev 240Cr ; PAT 35Cr
Capital goods companies with this kind of product line in my view ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐๐-๐๐ ๐๐ (๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ญ ๐๐.๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐๐๐ ; ๐.๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐๐๐) โ
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Other growth areas:
M-Sand machines is a big growth area - with govt moving towards banning of river sand mining, this will gain big traction. Taurian has entire range
Superior product quality has opened up export markets - Co expects 40% of revenue from exports next year (was negligible in FY25)
Waste processing in another sector which company could explore
Note: NOT a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐๐๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ (Update)
Finally, the 3rd aircraft has arrived !!
โ
Will give big boost to Q4
Ground checks suggest even Q3 should be all time high
So on track for:
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ
_______________________________
Further with 4th aircraft expected soon:
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ซ + ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ+
โ
Trading at just 16.5 PE (FY26E) ; 10PE (FY27E)
Further with preferential funds received (despite bad market & all the negativity around the stock), can expect ๐๐๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐ซ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ฌ (๐๐๐) as well which will be a massive massive trigger
Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐๐๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ (Update)
Good numbers
H1FY26 performance:
Rev: 240Cr vs 150Cr HoH vs 89Cr YoY
๐๐๐: ๐๐๐๐ซ๐ฅ ๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐
Q1 performance had been out of the park and co has maintained that performance in Q2
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Now key is to track 3rd and 4th aircraft. Expecting these to come in soon
1๏ธโฃExisting capacity: 44 tonnes
๐๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐ (๐๐ง๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐) - ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐
BUT, MAINLY, HUGE EXPANSIONโฆ
2๏ธโฃBy Q4FY26: Capacity 110 tonnes
And with fund raise plans in place
3๏ธโฃBy Q2FY27: Capacity 220 tonnes
4๏ธโฃ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐
๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ง๐ง๐๐ฌ
So with ๐-๐๐ฑ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐งโ
๐ข๐ง ๐ฉ๐ข๐ฉ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐, ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ฅ๐. Just need patience considering delays due to inherent limitations of this sector
DYODD | Not a buy / sell reco
๐
๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐จ (Update)
๐๐ฉ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง - ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐: ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฆ๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ
๐๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒโ
, but more importantly:
Freshara will be one of the very very rare companies with own ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ + ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ก๐๐ข๐ง - right from sourcing directly from farmers to selling under its own brand in leading retail chains like Walmart
____________________________________
๐๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐ซ (๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ) ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐ซ+ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐
Spain is the largest producer of olives globally. This acquisition opens many potential opportunities for Freshara:
1๏ธโฃEntry into retail chains like Walmart (currently Sarasa only selling in Spain) : Getting shelf space in Walmart in the US / UK is not an easy task. But Spanish olives brands have got preference with 3-4 brands already selling there
2๏ธโฃFreshara will start selling its own products (Gherkins, etc) under brand โSarasaโ & easier to push this as well in retail chains
___________________________________
Mgmt Guidance:
FY26E: Rev 325Cr ; PAT 33-35Cr
FY27E: Rev 600Cr (incl 200Cr Spain) ; PAT 60-62Cr
โ
๐๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ (๐
๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ) ; ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐% ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ !!
___________________________________
More on the turnaround plan for Sarasa and numbers soon ๐
Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐
๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐จ (Alpha Ideas meet update)
โช๏ธ3rd largest Gherkins exporter. ๐๐จ๐๐ฅ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ง๐จ. ๐ (๐ฅ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ) ๐๐ฒ ๐
๐๐๐/๐
๐๐๐โ
โช๏ธGherkins taste matters a lot - it is customised for each geography, customer stickiness also higher so not exactly a commodity play, but more B2B consumer play
โช๏ธCurrently exporting to 40 countries, plans to take this to 80 by FY27
โช๏ธ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐ญ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ expected next month (Sepโ25)โ
โช๏ธNew products like Baby corn, jalapeรฑos, etc have lot of potential and to drive growth
_________________________________
Now coming to the numbers (my view)โฆ
FY25: Revenue 250Cr ; PAT 29Cr
New unit which started in Janโ25, alone has revenue potential of 250-300 Croreโ
โ
Currently, running at 45-50% utilisation, with plans to ramp up to 90% by Marโ26
๐๐จ, ๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซโ
Further, few inorganic opportunities being evaluated and further capex being planned
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซ
View on Promoter Mr Junaid: Purely focused on execution with a well defined business plan
NOTE: Not a buy/sell reco | DYODD
Wealth Solitaire retweeted
Thanks times for recognizing @Zappfresh.
๐๐๐ ๐
๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐
๐จ๐จ๐๐ฌ (๐๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก) - Concall Update
Revenue ambition of 1000 Crore๐ฅ
Key takeaways:
Fอiอnอaอnอcอiอaอlอsอ:อ
1. ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐๐ก ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐ (as H1 sees festivals like Navratra, Shraddh, etc)
2. Margin improvement due to increased efficiency in Fish & Mutton categories.
โ
๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฌ
Aอdอdอiอtอiอoอnอaอlอ อGอrอoอwอtอhอ อLอeอvอeอrอsอ:อ
3. Big inorganic plans:
Co at advanced stages for 2 acquisitions in the ๐๐ง๐๐๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ โ
. These are ๐๐ข๐ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ณ๐๐ ๐จ๐ง๐๐ฌ.โ
โ
Co has a brilliant track record of acquiring struggling assets and turning around within 6-12 months (๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ฝ). So anything on these lines will be huge boost for FY27
4. Local meat shop tie ups:
Pilot project of 15-20 stores done in Bangalore.
โ
๐๐จ๐จ๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐ - not baked this in projections
5. Public private partnerships:
In talks with certain State Govts for a PPP to improve local meat ecosystem
โ
Even if Co can ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ค ๐ ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐, ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ ๐ก๐ฎ๐ ๐
Previous FY27 projections are excluding Local meat shops , PPP and inorganic. If that kicks in, ๐
๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐! โ๏ธ
_____________________________
FY26E: Rev 220Cr ; PAT 17Cr
FY27E (excl above levers): Rev 320Cr ; PAT 24-25Cr
FY27E (incl above levers): Rev 400Cr+; PAT 30Cr+โ
๐ฅ
๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐๐-๐๐% ๐๐ฏ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ญ ๐๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐๐๐
vs other brands at 30-35 forward PE with 30-40% CAGR
No buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐๐ ๐
๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐
๐จ๐จ๐๐ฌ (๐๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก) - Update
Superb H1 nos
H1FY26 performance:
Rev 96Cr vs 66Cr YoY
PAT 7Cr๐ฅ vs 2.5Cr YoY
๐
๐ฎ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ, ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ (Q3 & Q4)
โถ๏ธ FY26E: Rev 220Cr ; PAT 17Cr
(vs FY25 Rev 131Cr ; PAT 9Cr)
IPO funds full impact in FY27
โถ๏ธ FY27E: Rev 320Cr ; PAT 24-25Crโ
_________________________________
Profitable D2C with high growth available at very reasonable valuations:
FY26 basis: 1.8x revenue ; 22x PE
FY27 basis: 1.3x revenue ; 16x PE
v/s
Exorbitant valuations of other platform / D2C businesses
DYODD | Not a buy / sell reco
Phantom Digital (Business Update)
โฉ๏ธ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐๐๐๐๐ซ๐ฅ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ญโ๐๐ ๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐งโ๐๐
๐๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐ซ. Huge order book gives ๐ฏ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ ๐๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ
Tippet consolidation from Julโ25 and Milk consolidation from Octโ25
โ
Collections of 14Crore (20% of Sepโ25 Receivables) in Oct-Nov
Trading at just 9PE FY26E ; 6-7PE FY27E
Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ญ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅ (H1FY26 Update)
Absolute BLOCKBUSTER set ๐ฅ๐ฅ
Beyond everyoneโs expectations. ๐๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ
In my view, ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ญ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐:
1. Creative capabilities + super portfolio of brands (Tippett, Milk, etc)
2. Serving Marquee customers directly: Netflix, Marvel, Warner Bros
3. High margin business: 20% PAT
4. Growth outlook of 70%+ (current year 100-120%)
____________________________________
H1FY26 performance:
Revenue: 89Cr vs 35Cr YoY vs 64Cr HoH
(vs management guidance 65Cr)
๐๐๐: ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐ฅ vs 8Cr YoY vs 12Cr HoH
(vs management guidance 13Cr)
๐๐๐จ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ค ๐๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ญ.
๐๐ง ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ค ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ. ๐๐จ ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ
___________________________________
Market had been discounting / punishing phantom due to not meeting guidances in FY25 - but did not care to understand that entire industry was suffering then due to sudden external factors
โ
Now with this performance exceeding guidance big way + huge valuation mismatch, potential for huge re-rating
___________________________________
Industry checks:
1. Big turnaround in VFX is already underway
2. Strong order inflow and very good collections recently
Phantom is best poised to benefit with its creative capabilities and especially with recent acquisitions of top studios in US and Europe: Tippett and Milk
๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ญ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅ (H1FY26 Update)
Absolute BLOCKBUSTER set ๐ฅ๐ฅ
Beyond everyoneโs expectations. ๐๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ
In my view, ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ญ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐:
1. Creative capabilities + super portfolio of brands (Tippett, Milk, etc)
2. Serving Marquee customers directly: Netflix, Marvel, Warner Bros
3. High margin business: 20% PAT
4. Growth outlook of 70%+ (current year 100-120%)
____________________________________
H1FY26 performance:
Revenue: 89Cr vs 35Cr YoY vs 64Cr HoH
(vs management guidance 65Cr)
๐๐๐: ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐ฅ vs 8Cr YoY vs 12Cr HoH
(vs management guidance 13Cr)
๐๐๐จ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ค ๐๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ข๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ญ.
๐๐ง ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ค ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ. ๐๐จ ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ
___________________________________
Market had been discounting / punishing phantom due to not meeting guidances in FY25 - but did not care to understand that entire industry was suffering then due to sudden external factors
โ
Now with this performance exceeding guidance big way + huge valuation mismatch, potential for huge re-rating
___________________________________
Industry checks:
1. Big turnaround in VFX is already underway
2. Strong order inflow and very good collections recently
Phantom is best poised to benefit with its creative capabilities and especially with recent acquisitions of top studios in US and Europe: Tippett and Milk
๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ (๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐)
Very strong H1 performance
H1FY26: Rev 45Cr ; PAT 10Crโ
๐๐ง ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ค ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ ๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐ซ
โถ๏ธRecent B2C and B2B expansion to see impact in H2
______________________________________
Further full impact of IPO funds in FY27
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฏ ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ซ
๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ก๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ข๐๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐๐ค. Just 11PE FY26E ; 8PE FY27E
Poised for re-rating
DYODD | No buy / sell reco
๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ (๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐)
โ
๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฌ to be added over next 6 months
โฉ๏ธAlso since these will be within the hospital, ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐จ๐จ๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ. ๐๐จ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง / ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐
Star Imaging currently has 4 B2C centres generating 45Crore revenue.
๐๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ ๐ ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ๐จ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ (assuming these might be smaller ones)
After yesterdayโs update on B2C centre expansion, now this. Seems like ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ข๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐๐ก ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ซ๐-๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ โ
โ
Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก๐ญ๐๐๐ก (๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐)
What a superb concall. This business will definitely ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ญ ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ at the appropriate time
A few takeaways:
1๏ธโฃCapacity expanded by 30% in H1FY26.
โ
๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐งโ๐๐, ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐๐% ๐ข.๐. ๐.๐๐ฑ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฑ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ
________________________________
2๏ธโฃLargest client - Carbamide Forte has grown 4x in last 18 months. Influx is best positioned to serve them with its certifications etc
โ
๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ข๐ญ / ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฆ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐๐ซ๐๐
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐๐๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ง ๐
๐จ๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐, ๐๐๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฌ, ๐๐ญ๐ (see ss 2 and 3)
________________________________
3๏ธโฃProjections:
FY26 guidance Rev 160Cr ; PAT 24Cr
โ
๐๐๐ง ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ก ๐จ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง (๐๐%) ๐๐ฒ ๐
๐๐๐ ๐ข.๐. ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐
__________________________________
See full concall notes here โถ๏ธ xitter.cf/sachprat07/status/1988โฆ
DYODD | Not a buy / sell reco
๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก๐ญ๐๐๐ก (H1 Update)
Very very strong set
H1FY26: Rev 69Cr ; PAT 10Cr ๐ฅ
(vs guidance of 8.5Cr PAT)
Expanded capacity (out of internal accruals) in August to October will see full impact in H2FY26
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ซ
Also just look at the ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐๐ญ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ฌ , ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ โ
___________________________________
Further, above is without IPO funds usage
๐๐๐ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ฐ๐๐ฒ
FY27E: Rev 250Cr ; PAT 38Cr
FY28E: Rev 370Cr ; PAT 52Cr+
๐๐ก๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐ (๐
๐๐๐๐) ; ๐๐ ๐๐ (๐
๐๐๐๐)
I feel in the future, company will be compared to the likes of Hindustan Foods, which are trading at 50PE+
__________________________
Will post concall update soon
Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐๐๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ (Update)
Good numbers
H1FY26 performance:
Rev: 240Cr vs 150Cr HoH vs 89Cr YoY
๐๐๐: ๐๐๐๐ซ๐ฅ ๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐
Q1 performance had been out of the park and co has maintained that performance in Q2
____________________________________
Now key is to track 3rd and 4th aircraft. Expecting these to come in soon
1๏ธโฃExisting capacity: 44 tonnes
๐๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐ (๐๐ง๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐) - ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐๐-๐๐๐๐
BUT, MAINLY, HUGE EXPANSIONโฆ
2๏ธโฃBy Q4FY26: Capacity 110 tonnes
And with fund raise plans in place
3๏ธโฃBy Q2FY27: Capacity 220 tonnes
4๏ธโฃ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐
๐๐๐: ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ง๐ง๐๐ฌ
So with ๐-๐๐ฑ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐งโ
๐ข๐ง ๐ฉ๐ข๐ฉ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐, ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ฅ๐. Just need patience considering delays due to inherent limitations of this sector
DYODD | Not a buy / sell reco
๐๐๐๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ (Alpha Ideas Meet update)
Good presentation - Iโll cover just an ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ญ
(have covered all aspects previously so wonโt repeat)
_____________________________________
Existing aircraft:
- 2 Boeing 737 at 85% utilisation
- Major destinations Male, Hanoi, Myanmar, Bangkok
New aircraft:
- ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐-๐๐๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐ฉ๐ญโ๐๐โ
(๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง ๐ง๐๐ฑ๐ญ ๐-๐ ๐ฐ๐๐๐ค)
- ๐๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ญโ๐๐โ
- 5th 737 by Marโ26
Further, 2 Boeing 777 (wide body with 5x capacity vs 737) to be inducted by Decโ26
Faced some delays due to more stringent checks by Regulators after the recent Air India incident
Note: Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐๐ ๐
๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐
๐จ๐จ๐๐ฌ (๐๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก) - Update
Superb H1 nos
H1FY26 performance:
Rev 96Cr vs 66Cr YoY
PAT 7Cr๐ฅ vs 2.5Cr YoY
๐
๐ฎ๐ซ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ, ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ (Q3 & Q4)
โถ๏ธ FY26E: Rev 220Cr ; PAT 17Cr
(vs FY25 Rev 131Cr ; PAT 9Cr)
IPO funds full impact in FY27
โถ๏ธ FY27E: Rev 320Cr ; PAT 24-25Crโ
_________________________________
Profitable D2C with high growth available at very reasonable valuations:
FY26 basis: 1.8x revenue ; 22x PE
FY27 basis: 1.3x revenue ; 16x PE
v/s
Exorbitant valuations of other platform / D2C businesses
DYODD | Not a buy / sell reco
๐๐๐ ๐
๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐
๐จ๐จ๐๐ฌ (๐๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก) - Update
โ
๐๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ค๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ โ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐กโ - Very few new age consumer brands have managed to do this
A view on the business model below๐ฝ
_________________________________
๐๐๐๐ญ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฃ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฆ - Being 90% unorganised, absence of integrated supply chain and cold chain facilities leads to Poor quality , hygiene
๐๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐ข๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฆ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ค ๐ฆ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ with an integrated supply chain - incl end-to-end cold chain facilties, delivering within 24hrs
__________________________________
Omnichannel strategy:
๐. ๐๐๐ (๐๐% ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ)
- Targeting the mass segment with pricing 10-15% cheaper than licious and competitive (slightly higher) than local meat shops
- Personally liked the app a lot - superb interface / UI , easy tracking, etc
๐. ๐๐จ๐ซ๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฌ:
- Supplying to select food service chains like Pop Tates, Tibbs, etc
- Supply chain for meat is much more intensive than groceries etc. Hence, โ
๐๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ค๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ (๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐จ), Zepto - (already existing customers)
๐. ๐๐๐๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฉ๐ฌ:
- Unique offline strategy where Co ties up with local meat shops
โ
๐๐ง๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฑ๐๐ ๐ฏ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ ๐จ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ค๐ + ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐ + ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ญ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ (๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฑ)
_________________________________
๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ ๐ + ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ค๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐ก๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐-๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ / ๐๐ข๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฆ๐
Licious struggling since 3 years, with no growth (stuck at 700-800Cr) and burning huge cash (majorly in marketing)
On the other hand, Zappfresh has carved a niche with its pricing & omnichannel strategy without going berserk on marketing spends
_________________________________
Will cover Growth potential soon ๐
(Valuation covered in tagged tweet)
Note: Not a buy/sell reco | DYODD
๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ (๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐)
โ
๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฌ to be added over next 6 months
โฉ๏ธAlso since these will be within the hospital, ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐จ๐จ๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ. ๐๐จ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง / ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐
Star Imaging currently has 4 B2C centres generating 45Crore revenue.
๐๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ ๐ ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ๐จ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ (assuming these might be smaller ones)
After yesterdayโs update on B2C centre expansion, now this. Seems like ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ข๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐๐ก ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ซ๐-๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ โ
โ
Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ (๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐)
I have added more. Now part of high conviction portfolio
Key updates (see ss):
1๏ธโฃ๐๐-๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐๐ฆ๐
โช๏ธWith 4 B2C centres in UP, considering the micro market population in these areas, there is easy potential to add revenue of 12Cr+ from CGHS linked footfall itself
โช๏ธHoS company was previously doing 20Cr+ revenue from CGHS scheme
2๏ธโฃ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ค๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข
โช๏ธAdded 1 CT scan and 3 MRI machines - this should roughly mean additional revenue potential of 3-4Crore p.a.
โช๏ธFurther, radiology margins are much higher + operating leverage as these machines are in existing space
โถ๏ธ๐๐จ ๐๐ฅ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐% ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐๐จ๐ฏ๐ ๐.
โฉ๏ธ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ
_______________________________________
โ
Further, industry checks suggest UP ๐๐ค๐ซ๐ฉ ๐ฅ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐๐ฃ๐ฉ ๐๐๐ก๐๐ฎ๐จ ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐๐ฃ ๐ง๐๐จ๐ค๐ก๐ซ๐๐ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ข๐ค๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐ค๐ข๐ฅ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐จ ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐๐๐ง ๐๐ช๐๐จ
FY26E: Rev 110Cr ; PAT 22Cr
FY27E: Rev 140Cr ; PAT 28Cr
๐๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐๐๐
vs Chandan Healthcare at 23PE
vs other main board peers at 30-35PE
๐ฝ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ง ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ฅ๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐๐๐๐ฃ๐ค๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐จ๐๐๐ง๐. With CGHS re-empanelment and if itโs true that receivables issue is resolved, ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ซ๐-๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐
For more details, my previous tweetโถ๏ธ xitter.cf/wealthsolitaire/statusโฆ
Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก๐ญ๐๐๐ก (H1 Update)
Very very strong set
H1FY26: Rev 69Cr ; PAT 10Cr ๐ฅ
(vs guidance of 8.5Cr PAT)
Expanded capacity (out of internal accruals) in August to October will see full impact in H2FY26
๐
๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐๐๐ซ ; ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ซ
Also just look at the ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐๐ญ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ฌ , ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ฎ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ โ
___________________________________
Further, above is without IPO funds usage
๐๐๐ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ฐ๐๐ฒ
FY27E: Rev 250Cr ; PAT 38Cr
FY28E: Rev 370Cr ; PAT 52Cr+
๐๐ก๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐ (๐
๐๐๐๐) ; ๐๐ ๐๐ (๐
๐๐๐๐)
I feel in the future, company will be compared to the likes of Hindustan Foods, which are trading at 50PE+
__________________________
Will post concall update soon
Not a buy / sell reco | DYODD
๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก๐ญ๐๐๐ก (Update)
๐๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ฑโ
From my limited understanding of the economics:
โช๏ธ23,000/hr capsule line might yield revenue of INR 4.5-5 Crore
โช๏ธThe new 122,000/hr capsule line should yield ๐๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐-๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ญ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ฅ ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง โ
โ
(So this new line added ๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐-๐๐% ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ)
















































