@WeakConqueror

Veni, vidi, weaki. I only follow low-noise high-signal accounts. Do not post slop please.

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Joined February 2024
WeakConqueror retweeted
to those who have me on their contact email list: I have been hacked. Do not open an "invite" email from me. With apologies to all
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I think you missed my point @BrianCAlbrecht I did not mean to debate the finer points of econometric method. My point was that most people make political decisions based on their experience. In the 1970s and 1980s workers in the heartland were unionized and worked in close-knit communities. Those communities disintegrated when manufacturing jobs declined, and low-paying service jobs were not a good substitute. Anyone who has visited a town in decline will not be persuaded by econometrics. Perhaps the absolute loss of manufacturing jobs after 2001 had nothing to do with the increased import share from China. That, to me, seems unlikely. But even if the decline was in part inevitable as a consequence of automation, we did a terrible job as a society of managing a transition for communities to new stable ways of subsisting. A welfare check is not a good substitute for a high-paying job. Call me a cynic, but it has not been my experience that the majority of my colleagues are dispassionate scholars who leave their priors behind when analyzing data. We find what we look for, and often what we look for is confirmation to support policies from which we personally benefit. Most economists, as members of the coastal elite, benefit from cheaper consumer goods. And we proceed to write papers demonstrating how American workers also benefit from globalization, even though workers in the towns that lost manufacturing jobs have voted with their feet by moving away from a Democratic Party that supports globalization towards a Republican Party that is unashamedly populist. Economics is, and always has been in part, a political venture. Ricardo’s arguments for free trade were in direct opposition to the corn laws, which supported landowners over manufacturers and workers. The repeal of those laws redistributed away from the landed gentry toward merchants, manufacturers, and labor. Nobody compensated the landowners out of the gains from trade. So perhaps the Autor-Dorn-Hanson papers had no influence on the debate. But the political economy of the issue was instrumental in the rise of MAGA and the success of Trump.@carney @greg_ip @bungarsargon @jasonfurman @IvanWerning
"We do not need a PhD in economics to observe that the loss of these jobs was accompanied by an absolute decline in the standard of living in those regions that had previously supported well-paying blue collar jobs." That's not obvious to me. Let's take income to be standard of living. @joefrancis505 says no to the relative effect among employed. That doesn’t settle absolute changes, but disappearing factory jobs don’t establish them either for Bloom et al 2024 reasons. Maybe these just got classified as service workers?
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Germany should have pushed for integrating Europe in the early 2010s doing the single market for services, a fiscal union, common defense strategy and much more. Instead, they decided to stall the project and commit long-term economic harakiri because it was the most convenient option politically at the time. Now, we all pay for the mistakes of Angela Merkel and her ruinous tenure. Again, Schuman offered to integrate Europe 5 years (!) after Nazi troops were committing atrocities in France. Merkel was unable to see beyond a debt crisis and decided to stall the project. I think that says everything about the difference between the two politicians.
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Replying to @robin_j_brooks
Nope. Every day Germany stays in the euro, it benefits from a chronically weak euro that makes its exports too competitive at the expense of other EU countries. In fact, it is this chronically weak euro that made German industry fall asleep in the 2010s and stop innovating, thinking they could just export to China & America forever. All the while Merkel was pushing the narrative of the ‘lazy South’, shutting down nuclear plants, stopping investment in infrastructure and giving in to green pro-Russian propaganda to appease the lazy German voters. Germans today take more days off for sick leave than ANYONE ELSE in Europe, and their welfare is grossly expensive. Their fiscal rigor is also a pale memory of the past, as they now need to start investing in military after FREE RIDING on America for half a century. You are absolutely intellectually dishonest for pushing this rhetoric of Germany as a virtue country that somehow Europe should follow. Germany under Merkel has been the RUIN of the European project. Schuman, after 5 years the Nazi occupied his home country of France, managed to go to Berlin and propose to start a common market for coal and steel. Nowadays little, miserable ‘economists’ like yourself are unable to go beyond the Merkelian rhetoric of North vs South and still push nonsense propaganda about Germany ‘paying’ for the rest of Europe. If the AfD wants to get out of Europe, so be it. The rest of Europe should then put trade barriers with Germany and leave the country to rot in their nonsense.
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The much-hyped threat to birds from offshore wind seems to be exaggerated. A big study showed that 99.8% escape the turbines. And painting one blade black reduces the deaths that do occur by almost three quarters. euronews.com/2026/10/02/how-…
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At some point in the next 18 months, the Fed is going to hike too much, the AI bubble will burst, bond yields are going to plunge and all these theories about fiscal dominance are going to look rather silly. Always choose incompetence over conspiracy
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Ho letto e ascoltato, come spesso accade, molte cose inventate di sana pianta sulle scelte di bilancio che riguardano la Difesa. Telefonate dai toni duri, scontri e discussioni tra me, il Presidente Meloni e il Ministro Giorgetti. Sapete quante telefonate di questo tipo ci sono state negli ultimi sette giorni? ZERO. Non una o due, che sarebbero anche normali. Zero. C’è stata una riunione. E non avevo bisogno che qualcuno mi spiegasse cosa sta accadendo all’energia, ai carburanti, all’inflazione o ai debiti sovrani. Lo capisco benissimo. Per questo mi sono limitato a dire che ritenevo già importante poter contare, per la Difesa, sullo 0,3% del PIL previsto per il 2027, rinviando a tempi migliori il ragionamento sulle ulteriori necessità. Senza discussioni. Senza lotte. Senza obiezioni. Senza vincitori né vinti. La sicurezza che oggi dobbiamo garantire è anche quella economica delle famiglie, di fronte a una crisi che arriva dall’esterno e colpisce tutti. Oggi, invece, scopro dalle parole di un sedicente leader dell’opposizione che il Governo avrebbe deciso di spendere «14 miliardi in più in armi». Il Governo proporrà al Parlamento di utilizzare la clausola di salvaguardia europea, nata per le spese di difesa e oggi estesa anche alla sicurezza energetica, per finanziare sia la sicurezza sia gli interventi contro il caro energia. La Difesa ha aperto la strada a una flessibilità che consente anche di aiutare famiglie e imprese. Una scelta intelligente e utile. Ma sono utili anche le spese per la Difesa, presidente Conte. E ridurle tutte alla parola «armi» significa ignorare, o fingere di ignorare, ciò di cui si parla. Su 100 euro destinati alla Difesa: • 60 vanno al personale: donne e uomini di Esercito, Marina, Aeronautica, Carabinieri e personale civile. Complessivamente, 278.000 persone. • 10 servono al funzionamento quotidiano: carburanti, manutenzioni, divise, mense. Risorse che alimentano il lavoro di migliaia di commercianti, artigiani e piccole imprese. • 30 finanziano gli investimenti, che comprendono anche gli armamenti necessari ad assolvere il nostro compito: difendere i cittadini e la democrazia. Quegli investimenti sostengono un comparto che dà lavoro a oltre 300.000 persone. Non soltanto Leonardo, Fincantieri o Iveco, ma centinaia di grandi, medie e piccole aziende. E alimentano una crescita tecnologica e scientifica con ricadute fondamentali anche nella vita civile. Chi attacca in modo superficiale e indiscriminato le spese per la Difesa colpisce quindi il personale, il lavoro, le imprese e la capacità di innovazione del Paese. Soprattutto, dimentica il compito al quale queste risorse servono: quella difesa della Patria che la Costituzione definisce «sacro dovere del cittadino». A questo punto, però, mi sia consentito distinguere. C’è chi si oppone per un pacifismo sincero o per profonde convinzioni morali. Ha il mio pieno rispetto. C’è chi lo fa per convenienza politica, perché essere contro, senza approfondire, può portare voti. Ne comprendo il calcolo, ma non condivido questo modo di fare politica. E poi c’è chi lo fa perché sta dalla parte dei nostri nemici. Per questi ultimi ho solo disprezzo.
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There is no good reason for mosquitoes to exist in wealthy countries today. New technologies can get rid of the mosquito species that cause diseases like dengue, yellow fever, and malaria; and others can prevent them from carrying those diseases. worksinprogress.co/issue/mos… So why do mosquitoes still exist? In a new article for Works in Progress, Maya Rosen explains how state incapacity and risk aversion led to over a decade of delays and billions of unnecessary bites in the United States. Oxitec, for example, engineered an Aedes aegypti mosquito in such a way that its female offspring would die before adulthood. Through sustained releases, they showed they could reduce local mosquito populations by 80% or more, in field trials. They sought approval from the USDA in 2010, which then passed it to the FDA, which passed it to the EPA. In 2020, the EPA allowed them to conduct limited field trials in the Florida Keys. Two years ago, their experimental permit expired, and they still need another review before it can be used routinely. Their proposed field trial in California was withdrawn after public opposition. Another company, MosquitoMate, developed a technique involving Wolbachia, which also suppresses local mosquitoes. They then spent over fifteen years working through the system before finally receiving commercial registration nationwide in 2024. It seems that, sometimes, the barrier to getting rid of diseases isn’t technology at all. It’s policy and political will. New products shouldn’t get stuck in regulatory review for so long, especially if the delays are about basic questions like which agency has oversight over the product, rather than testing for safety. Though some of those uncertainties were being addressed, the broader changes haven’t materialized. After Biden’s 2022 executive order, the agencies planned to update how their coordinated framework was implemented. But Trump rescinded the order last year. Meanwhile, the EPA unit that reviews new mosquito control products is still a small office backlogged in reviewing a wide range of products. Mosquitoes are a policy choice. We can get rid of them. Will we choose to? worksinprogress.co/issue/mos…
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I am a Russian speaking man living in Estonia. Both of my parents are Russians. The last thing I ever wish is Russia to come and "defend" me and other so-called Russian speaking people in Estonia and Baltics. Leave the f**king other countries alone. No one wants Russia here.
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The UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, who has been in position for more than 4 years, today openly apologised that she did not even know the meaning of the word antisemitism before yesterday. No that is not an exaggeration.
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I wish I had the confidence of the average Western leftoid peacenik who apparently believes they possess either the physical or mental capacity to qualify for ANY combat role in a modern military. While Russians are butchering civilians, raping men, women and children, torturing people in occupied territories and hunting civilians with drones, a bunch of Westoids are waving Palestinian flags while protesting conscription. Relax. Nobody is sending you to storm a Russian trench in Donbas, you morons 🤦🏻‍♀️ Your weak ass can barely operate anything more complicated than a matcha latte. Nobody is trusting you with frontline weapons, lol. And we all know how this ends anyway: millions of Eastern European men, women and children be a human shield while you get “conscripted” into a former Volkswagen factory assembling drones. 9–5. Lunch break, 30 days paid vacation, and a workplace mindfulness seminar on Wednesdays. You’ll survive. Shut up.
Schoolchildren in Germany protest against conscription Nationwide protests by schoolchildren against the possible introduction of compulsory military service took place in Germany. According to the organizers, the protests were held in more than 100 cities and drew more than 45,000 participants. In Berlin and other cities, participants took to the streets with slogans including “Your war — without us,” “Why us, not you,” and “Not a single person, not a single cent for the Bundeswehr.” The protests were prompted by the introduction of mandatory medical examinations for 18-year-old men and the possibility of reinstating conscription if there are not enough volunteers.
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L'informazione sulla povertà in Argentina.
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A 93 percent illuminated waning gibbous moon rises behind the EdgeNYC observation deck at Hudson Yards two days after the full Harvest Moon in New York City, Monday evening #newyorkcity #nyc #newyork #moon @edgenyc
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what is driving yields? oil ✅ growth resilience ✅ monetary policy ✅ Fed credibility ❌ fiscal risk ❌ fiscal dominance ❌ debasement ❌ Yen carry trade ❌ crowding out ❌
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Definizione mirabile invero.
Replying to @degiorgiod
Sono i latifondisti del terziario.
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Well, this is sad and terrible: “Many experts believe that estrangements between adult children and their parents are becoming an epidemic in the U.S.” “Psychologists say young adults’ definition of harmful parental behavior is changing.” They “consider ordinary conflict to be much worse than it once was” and “have a much broader definition than their elders of psychological harm.” “Many now view repeated criticism, strong disagreements and other painful relationship conflicts as abusive.” “In their minds, they see themselves as more enlightened and therefore more justified to cut off for more reasons.”
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We’re launching the Army of Robots. In 2022, we launched the Army of Drones. Today, drones account for over 95% of battlefield strikes, and Ukraine has more than 700 UAV manufacturers. Now we need the next technological breakthrough: the robotization of warfare. The goal is simple — save lives. Robots should take on the most dangerous missions: evacuating the wounded, delivering ammunition, mining and demining, reconnaissance, defending positions and engaging targets. The Army of Robots is not one company. It’s an ecosystem. We will invest in defense tech companies, launch our own technology projects, test them with the military and scale what works on the battlefield. We’re now looking for defense tech companies and engineers working on robotic technologies — as well as a CTO / Tech Lead for the Army of Robots. Join us: thearmyofrobots.com/en
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WeakConqueror retweeted
#ONEPIECE #ONEPIECE1194 Chapter 1194 Of One Piece: "The Impermanence Of All Things" Is Out Now! Read It Ad-Free In Our Bio Or In The Replies! PS: All Our Links Are Always Ad Free So Please Read Using Cubari!
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Having crossed $200 today, $MRNA is up $68B YTD because of a clinical trial -from which we have zero data yet, -in which they were not even comparing their drug to the actual current standard of care -addressing a TAM that could *optimistically* support peak sales of only $2-$3B -using a drug that they only own HALF of! This is, without a doubt, the craziest, most unhinged move in the history of biotech. I’m not commenting on if it’s a good short, bad short, whatever. EVERYBODY knows that the trading dynamics here are momo/hype/AI trade related. The action on these unhinged moves is impossible to predict as they have no basis in reality. This is for documenting history. The most insane move in the history of biotech.
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