萬般努力只為出人頭地，低頭彎腰只為爬的更高，無人扶我青雲志， @zkpass 送我上高樓，我的代號9527
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The B-Book Model in Cryptocurrency Exchanges: Mechanisms, Arbitrage Opportunities, and Systemic Risks
Author: Waynecoin
Affiliation: Alpha 9 Ventures
Contact: X:@Wayne145591
Date: August 2025
$BTC is down 19%. $ETH is down 29%. Meanwhile, most altcoins are already back to where they were before the rally even started.
That’s the reality of altcoins.
On the way up, narratives attract liquidity. On the way down, retail gets left holding the bag.
Most altcoins aren’t designed to create real value. They’re designed to keep recycling narratives and funnel liquidity from retail into the pockets of founders, VCs, and early investors.
People say money can’t buy happiness.
Now Jensen Huang is caught up in cheating rumors, and everyone’s acting shocked.
I mean, what’s the point of being a billionaire if you still have to behave like a saint? 😂
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Waynecoin retweeted
Brutal -30% decrease on $ETH, but I would think the R/R is pretty solid down here for some long entries.
$BTC / $ETH
I’m still leaning towards BTC forming a local bottom around $72–73K, with a potential bounce to $77–80K in the short term.
That said, I’m not looking to chase pumps or short at these levels.
My plan is to scale into longs gradually. I’ll start building a position around $72–74K, add more if we dip into $70–72K, and save my last bids for $68–70K.
Personally, I think $68K is around where a deeper pullback could find a bottom this time. I don’t see a strong reason to expect a drop all the way back to $60K just yet.
Of course, that doesn’t mean $68K can’t break.
I’m not trying to nail the exact bottom. I’d rather build a solid position with a decent average entry.
Leaning bullish, scaling in on dips, and looking at $97–100K as my first target.
This is why I still think the real debasement trade may not begin until 2027.
Right now, the market still doesn’t look ready to pick a clear direction. Prices are struggling near the recent highs, bond yields are rising, and the dollar is getting stronger. So for now, I think we’ll probably keep moving up and down rather than go straight into a new trend.
Maybe we hold a higher low and break out later. Or maybe we just keep moving sideways or slowly drift lower for longer than people expect.
My guess is that inflation stays high enough for the Fed to keep rates where they are through most, if not all, of 2026. I don’t think the real rate cuts begin until 2027.
If I’m right, that’s when easier money starts coming back and more people begin moving into things like gold and Bitcoin to protect the value of their money.
Until then, I’d rather trade the market in front of me than pretend every short-term move is the beginning of something bigger.
$BTC
One thing I’m watching closely right now is short-term holder capitulation.
At around $73K, we’re seeing short-term holders realizing significant losses again, likely including those who bought near the recent highs.
But here’s what makes this interesting.
BTC previously bottomed near $58K, followed by a potential shift in market structure around $62K.
If that shift is still intact, the selling pressure we’re seeing now could be a healthy reset rather than the start of another major leg down.
I’m not saying $73K has to be the bottom.
But if the broader structure remains bullish, I’d rather look for opportunities to accumulate during fear than chase price after a rally.
The key is whether this capitulation leads to stabilization or further selling.
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Waynecoin retweeted
$BTC
Here's when price will hit the ATH and peak of this cycle,
If you read my previous post, you already know that the cycles are getting shorter and the 4 year cycle has broken,
Now the question stands, when will we hit the ATH and eventually the peak of this cycle?
Well this time, price took 25.2% less time to form its bear market bottom compared to the previous cycles.
Taking that time compression as a reference and applying it to the previous cycle, we get:
1. New ATH: Approximately 392 days from the absolute bottom.
2. Cycle peak: Approximately 798 days from the absolute bottom.
If this plays out correctly, we're potentially looking at a new ATH around June - July 2027, followed by a cycle peak around late 2028.
For peak price of this cycle, I think it's going to be around 160-180k.
$BTC
The 4 year cycle has finally broken,
Last bear market took 365 days to form its bottom.
Meanwhile this time, it took just 273 days to bottom and for comparison it's a 25.2% reduction.
Now let's look at the recovery phase, last cycle it took 486 days for price to reclaim a new ATH from the bottom.
If we apply the same time compression to this cycle, we get approximately 364 days (25.1% reduction).
That's nearly 4 months faster than the previous cycle.
Basically in short a new ATH is around 364 days away from the bottom, which puts us around June - July 2027.
(Reminder: We have already covered 126 days so far).
ACCUMULATE WHILE YOU CAN BECAUSE WE ARE GONNA RIP SOONER THAN YOU EXPECT.
Waynecoin retweeted
从过去的经验来看，目前A股大概率是在中枢的位置，还没有到市场大底部，按照个人的测算，距离中长期的底部，大概还有20%的空间。
回溯前几轮的底部，当市场到中长期底部时，中证全指的市净率一般是在1.3倍左右。目前，中证全指的市净率为1.57倍，距离1.3倍的市场大底，大概还有20%左右的下降空间。
创业板指到中长期底部时，市净率一般在3.3倍左右，当前的市净率为3.9倍左右；沪深300见到中长期底部时，市净率一般是在1.2倍左右，目前的市净率1.4倍左右，差不多还有20%到历史大底部的位置。 如果按照20%的空间测算：创业板指大概在2000点左右，沪深300大概在3200点左右，中证全指大概在4000点左右。
实际上，如果真的能坚持下来，当前其实是可以开始考虑做定投了，坚持拿2-3年的时间，未来的收益不会太差
转自雪球
Waynecoin retweeted
提供另外一個數據視角
綠箭頭：BTC LIQ + 10% Overall Liq(BTC)
近期是 60K 底部以來流動性偏差最大的一次。
不過昨天開始 78.5K 左右被掛了大量密集賣單，短期價格明顯被壓制，同價位數據也變差不少。
但根據經驗，這種大量賣單通常維持不久，短線可能還會往下洗一波，但跟 R大 同樣看法 - 曙光應該快來了，此處可不做多，但不建議再加倉做空。
$BTC 日线级， RSI 已进入超卖范围。
同时看一下 CoinKarma 的订单墙指标 Overall LIQ，目前市场的现货买单比卖单厚 2 倍以上。
这个位置可以不做多，但建议不要再加仓做空。
Waynecoin retweeted
$BTC
People like to overcomplicate things a lot,
Expected bottom before next leg : 71-75k
Expected Target for the next leg : 89-95k
It's that simple, I will come back to this post in 1 month from now.
打算分批进比特币、以太多单还有ena、Ondo 、pyth、sui、eigen 、Avax 、aave、near、uni的现货，高点是87385，假设下跌15-20%，也就是74277上下，分批进的话成本应该会在77000-73000上下，不知道会跌到哪，反正我分批进再怎么样也是比那群买在85000-87000的傻子好
我還在想yb、Pendle買哪一個比較好，如果兩個只能選一個的話
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