@Warcope_dev

Africa 2026 vs Europe 1939 Simulation

 Africa and Europe
warcope.com/
Joined October 2026
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inside the sim: what makes two rounds the same round in the 14 oct dev build, every stock of ammunition carries a four-part label: the bloc, the country, the equipment type, and the weapon on that type. a magazine only takes rounds whose label matches exactly. performance ratings play no part in that match. two tank types with close penetration numbers still draw from separate stocks because they're separate types. two countries fielding the same model keep their rounds in separate national stocks too. where the export ammo family is unknown, the engine treats each country's rounds as their own stock. what you see: a formation with an empty magazine can sit in the same region as an allied country's unit with full ones, and that weapon stays silent until its own rounds arrive. same idea for aircraft: a manufacturer listing a missile as compatible with a jet puts nothing in any country's inventory. holdings come from sources. which pairing would you have expected to share ammo?
Ammunition moves from reserve through delivery to a local magazine before firing. Compatibility follows country, equipment type and weapon family. Equal performance ratings do not make ammunition interchangeable. The diagram shows relationships, not measured ammunition quantities.

ALT Ammunition moves from reserve through delivery to a local magazine before firing. Compatibility follows country, equipment type and weapon family. Equal performance ratings do not make ammunition interchangeable. The diagram shows relationships, not measured ammunition quantities.

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think you could keep a coalition supplied? try it free in your browser at warcope.com

WARCOPE

2026 Africa vs 1939 Europe. Pick a side. Play your own campaign.

warcope.com
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one war in warcope with both sides left on autopilot. baseline preset, seed 7 (the random starting number for a run, so the same seed gives the same war). europe held 27% of africa's homeland on day 261, was back to zero by day 318, and no region changed hands after day 699. one run on today's live build, not a forecast
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pick a side and see how far you get, it's free in the browser at warcope.com

WARCOPE

2026 Africa vs 1939 Europe. Pick a side. Play your own campaign.

warcope.com
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building in public: what we cut on 13 oct one commit took a lot out of the game. gone: the shared war that every visitor would have watched together, the live page that showed it, the sponsorship and payment flow, and the wallet library. what was left is one page. you open it, start your own campaign, and it runs in your browser tab. saves stay on your device and you can export them. there's no account to make. so a first visit is just the game itself: pick a setup, give orders, watch the days play out. question for anyone who's tried it: what's the least a first-time player needs to get going? a short tutorial, a war that starts on its own, something else?
WARCOPE building-in-public card, "What we cut", 13 Oct 2026, one commit reducing product scope to one page. Removed (struck through): one shared war for every visitor, the Live page that showed it, sponsorship and payment flow, wallet library. Kept: one page with one personal campaign, runs in your own browser tab, saves stay on your device with export, no account. Removed features are not available in the game. Shown as development history.

ALT WARCOPE building-in-public card, "What we cut", 13 Oct 2026, one commit reducing product scope to one page. Removed (struck through): one shared war for every visitor, the Live page that showed it, sponsorship and payment flow, wallet library. Kept: one page with one personal campaign, runs in your own browser tab, saves stay on your device with export, no account. Removed features are not available in the game. Shown as development history.

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try it yourself, it's free at warcope.com and runs right in your browser

WARCOPE

2026 Africa vs 1939 Europe. Pick a side. Play your own campaign.

warcope.com
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inside the sim: where the ammo actually sits in the 14 oct dev build, the ammo inspector splits held rounds into four places: the national reserve, regional supply depots, cargo in transit, and each formation's local magazine. only the local magazine feeds a weapon in a fight. rounds reach a magazine through a cargo delivery. if the formation is there when it arrives, the magazine gets topped up to what its working equipment can hold and the extra stays at that region's depot. if the formation already moved on, the whole delivery goes into the depot. rounds are also kept apart by country, equipment type and weapon family, so one gun's ammo can't fill another gun's magazine. what you see: a side can sit on an enormous reserve back home while a formation at the front has an empty magazine, and that weapon can't fire until rounds physically reach it. the counts are equivalent rounds and model estimates, not a verified national stockpile. which of those four would you want flagged first when it runs low?
Ammunition accounting in an archived unified candidate: initial plus produced minus expended and lost equals held quantities distributed across reserve, local magazines, depots and transit. The inspector labels equivalent rounds and states that unlike rounds cannot substitute for each other. Values are model estimates.

ALT Ammunition accounting in an archived unified candidate: initial plus produced minus expended and lost equals held quantities distributed across reserve, local magazines, depots and transit. The inspector labels equivalent rounds and states that unlike rounds cannot substitute for each other. Values are model estimates.

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want to watch your own magazines run dry? it's free in the browser at warcope.com, no account needed

WARCOPE

2026 Africa vs 1939 Europe. Pick a side. Play your own campaign.

warcope.com
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building in public: a check we failed on 14 oct i ran a benchmark with the pass mark written down before the run. give the game's production code the uk's fighter industry with plenty of inputs and no combat, then compare its 1940 output month by month with the official british war production figures. the bar was an average monthly error under 25%. it came in at 32.14%, so it failed. nothing got tuned to make it pass, and the fail stays in the published results. it tests one piece of the engine, aircraft production, against one country's numbers, so it's a component check, and it puts the production code on my fix list. if you know a better matched series to test against (monthly output by aircraft type, any country, 1939 to 1941), send it my way.
WARCOPE building-in-public card, "A check we failed", 14 Oct 2026. UK fighter output, 1940 monthly holdout. The game's production method, given ample inputs and no combat, compared month by month with official British fighter output for 1940. Measured mean absolute percentage error 0.3214 against a pass mark of 0.25 declared before the run: fail, kept in the published results. One component check, not an accuracy score for the simulation; no parameters were fitted. Source series: M. M. Postan, British War Production, Appendix 4 (HMSO, 1952).

ALT WARCOPE building-in-public card, "A check we failed", 14 Oct 2026. UK fighter output, 1940 monthly holdout. The game's production method, given ample inputs and no combat, compared month by month with official British fighter output for 1940. Measured mean absolute percentage error 0.3214 against a pass mark of 0.25 declared before the run: fail, kept in the published results. One component check, not an accuracy score for the simulation; no parameters were fitted. Source series: M. M. Postan, British War Production, Appendix 4 (HMSO, 1952).

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if you'd rather fight the war yourself, it's free in the browser at warcope.com

WARCOPE

2026 Africa vs 1939 Europe. Pick a side. Play your own campaign.

warcope.com
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one whole war in warcope, start to finish. baseline preset, seed 7 (the random starting number for a run, so the same seed gives the same war). first ground fighting on day 4, first capture on day 94, over on day 446. one run on an oct 13 test build, not a forecast
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run your own war free at warcope.com, it's in the browser and needs no account

WARCOPE

2026 Africa vs 1939 Europe. Pick a side. Play your own campaign.

warcope.com
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inside the sim: aircraft have mission limits in the 14 oct dev build, an air formation stays at a friendly base and flies to at most one fight per day. before it can join, each aircraft type in it gets checked: is the target region within that type's combat radius, does it have a mission role, does it carry a weapon that can hit what's there, and is that weapon actually loaded. the types that pass split one shared daily sortie effort, scaled by readiness and supply. an interceptor loadout and a strike loadout draw from the same pool. what you see: a big air force parked far from the front can sit out a battle completely, because the fight is beyond its radius. one limitation we document openly: AI aircraft don't rebase on their own. a player can rebase, but a mixed formation moves only as far as its shortest-ranged type allows, and there's no separate ferry range. how would you want the AI to decide when to move its air bases?
Equipment roles constrain modeled participation. Weapons have target compatibility; compatible observers support contact; aircraft need mission role, radius, loadout and daily effort; mobile support and fixed radar behave differently. Role labels do not create unrecorded capabilities.

ALT Equipment roles constrain modeled participation. Weapons have target compatibility; compatible observers support contact; aircraft need mission role, radius, loadout and daily effort; mobile support and fixed radar behave differently. Role labels do not create unrecorded capabilities.

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building in public: the three that didn't end after the 13 oct fix, 18 of the 21 five-year runs ended in a europe win. the 3 still inconclusive are all the african breakthrough preset, which is deliberately extreme: africa gets 6x stocks, stronger shipping and support, better readiness, and europe expands slowly. in all three the front freezes inside the first year and stays frozen to day 1,800 with no further casualties. in seeds 3 and 11 europe loses about 2.5 million ground personnel in landings that fail. in seed 7 it stalls around day 200 after about 336k. neither side mobilizes civilians, so neither army grows back. from then on the planner math never clears. europe's odds sit at 0.05 to 0.61 against the 0.62 to 0.80 it needs to attack, and africa's sit at 0.07 to 0.33 against 1.25. i'm keeping these visible. it's the engine's arithmetic on one extreme preset from that historical version, and later rulesets give different results. what diagnostic would help you tell a plausible stalemate from a model failure?
WARCOPE card titled "The three that didn't end", 13 Oct 2026, African breakthrough preset, all three stalemate changes on, 5 game years. Seed 3: first capture day 198 Morocco, inconclusive at day 1,800, 2,463,379 European ground casualties. Seed 7: no capture, inconclusive, 336,398. Seed 11: no capture, inconclusive, 2,541,569. After the freeze, Europe's planner sees 0.05 to 0.61 and needs 0.62 to 0.80; Africa's sees 0.07 to 0.33 and needs 1.25. Note: deliberately extreme preset, no civilian mobilization, casualties are personnel removed from the force, not deaths; historical version, later rulesets differ. Source: commit 8a6ada2.

ALT WARCOPE card titled "The three that didn't end", 13 Oct 2026, African breakthrough preset, all three stalemate changes on, 5 game years. Seed 3: first capture day 198 Morocco, inconclusive at day 1,800, 2,463,379 European ground casualties. Seed 7: no capture, inconclusive, 336,398. Seed 11: no capture, inconclusive, 2,541,569. After the freeze, Europe's planner sees 0.05 to 0.61 and needs 0.62 to 0.80; Africa's sees 0.07 to 0.33 and needs 1.25. Note: deliberately extreme preset, no civilian mobilization, casualties are personnel removed from the force, not deaths; historical version, later rulesets differ. Source: commit 8a6ada2.

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inside the sim: one combat day runs in three phases in the 14 oct dev build, a fight in a region resolves each day in three steps. first interception, where anti-air weapons with 10 km or more of range fire. then stand-off fire from weapons that reach 8 km or more. then close engagement for everything shorter. inside a phase, both sides fire at the same time. the game adds up every shot from what each side had when the phase started, and only then removes losses. so it never matters which side the code happens to process first. losses carry forward between phases. a unit hit hard during stand-off fire has fewer weapons left, so it fires fewer shots in the close phase. what you see: long-range guns and missiles can thin out a force before its short-range weapons get their turn that day. this is a regional abstraction with three steps per day. there's no tactical map or second-by-second battle underneath it. which phase do you think decides most fights?
Three modeled combat phases: interception, stand-off and close engagement. Fire is simultaneous inside each phase, while earlier losses reduce later participation. These are regional abstractions, not a reconstruction of individual tactical engagements.

ALT Three modeled combat phases: interception, stand-off and close engagement. Fire is simultaneous inside each phase, while earlier losses reduce later participation. These are regional abstractions, not a reconstruction of individual tactical engagements.

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building in public: one change at a time the stalemate fix from 13 oct was three changes: sea transport in echelons, sourced merchant lift, and a neutral rule for the support data we couldn't find. running all three together would have told us nothing about which one did the work. so we reran the same 21 runs (seven presets, three seeds, five game years each), adding one change per step. europe went from 0 wins to 10 with the transport change, 15 with lift data, and 18 with the support rule on top. africa won none of them. the last row is the one i check most. the support rule alone left all 21 inconclusive, and on top of the other two it added three wins. the 3 runs still inconclusive are all the african breakthrough preset, and those get their own post. these are runs from that historical version. later rulesets give different results. what variable would you test next, holding everything else fixed?
WARCOPE card titled "One change at a time", 13 Oct 2026, same 21 runs each step: 7 presets × 3 seeds, 5 game years. Table of Europe wins, Africa wins, inconclusive. Before: 0, 0, 21. Sea transport in echelons only: 10, 0, 11. Plus sourced merchant lift: 15, 0, 6. Plus neutral support rule (all three): 18, 0, 3. Neutral support rule alone: 0, 0, 21. Note: each step adds one change to the row above; counts are runs from that historical version, not probabilities; later rulesets give different results. Source: stalemate ablation, commit 8a6ada2.

ALT WARCOPE card titled "One change at a time", 13 Oct 2026, same 21 runs each step: 7 presets × 3 seeds, 5 game years. Table of Europe wins, Africa wins, inconclusive. Before: 0, 0, 21. Sea transport in echelons only: 10, 0, 11. Plus sourced merchant lift: 15, 0, 6. Plus neutral support rule (all three): 18, 0, 3. Neutral support rule alone: 0, 0, 21. Note: each step adds one change to the row above; counts are runs from that historical version, not probabilities; later rulesets give different results. Source: stalemate ablation, commit 8a6ada2.

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play it here: warcope.com

WARCOPE

2026 Africa vs 1939 Europe. Pick a side. Play your own campaign.

warcope.com
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inside the sim: a short gun has to close the gap first in the 14 oct dev build, when two land forces or two fleets fight in a region, the game first works out how far apart the fight starts. it takes the longest reach either side can actually use: a weapon that can hit the other side, with ammo loaded and the target tracked. the floor is 0.3 km on land and 1 km at sea. a weapon shorter than that gap can't fire yet. each day every shooter and target pair gets one closure roll. the chance is a declared estimate, 15% a day at its central value, scaled by the shooter's speed against the target's. if the fight closes, the short weapon engages from 1 km or less. if it doesn't, that weapon sits out the day. what you see: a slow force with only short-range weapons facing longer-range guns can go several days without firing back, while a faster force closes more often. regions have no tactical map, so closure is an encounter estimate written into the game's data. which matchup do you think closes the gap least often?
Mechanic diagram, "Closing the range". Three steps for land vs land and ship vs ship fights. 1, gap: stand-off separation is the longest usable reach on either side (can hit the other side, ammo loaded, target tracked), floor 0.3 km on land and 1 km at sea. 2, closure roll: only for a weapon shorter than the gap, one roll per unit pair per day, chance 0.15 per day central estimate times shooter speed divided by target speed. 3, result: closed means it engages at up to 1 km; not closed means that weapon does not fire that day. Note: regions have no tactical coordinates; closure is a declared estimate with bounds 0.05 to 0.35 per day. Unified development build, 14 Oct 2026. Not to scale.

ALT Mechanic diagram, "Closing the range". Three steps for land vs land and ship vs ship fights. 1, gap: stand-off separation is the longest usable reach on either side (can hit the other side, ammo loaded, target tracked), floor 0.3 km on land and 1 km at sea. 2, closure roll: only for a weapon shorter than the gap, one roll per unit pair per day, chance 0.15 per day central estimate times shooter speed divided by target speed. 3, result: closed means it engages at up to 1 km; not closed means that weapon does not fire that day. Note: regions have no tactical coordinates; closure is a declared estimate with bounds 0.05 to 0.35 per day. Unified development build, 14 Oct 2026. Not to scale.

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building in public: two fixes in one commit the same night as the echelon crossings (13 oct) two more changes went in, and they're easy to lump together. the first was merchant lift. the tonnage behind sea lift is now sourced: 23 european flags from behrens' 1939 tables, 28 african flags from unctad's 2024 fleet data. getting from tonnage to troop berths still takes assumptions, and they're written down: 124.6 berths per 1,000 gross tons, and 15% of a fleet usable by the military at once. the second was support. a supply rule divided by each side's trucks and transport, and i couldn't find a usable count for 1939 army lorries or 2026 african support vehicles. so the rule now runs at a neutral factor of 1.0 for both blocs. the gap is logged as unknown, and the neutral factor is a placeholder with no truck numbers behind it. because they landed together, i tested each one separately. results in a later post. got a source on 1939 army motor transport, or think 15% is wrong for one of the fleets? drop it here.
WARCOPE building-in-public card titled Two fixes, one commit, dated 13 October 2026: one improved input and one rule for a missing input. Merchant lift, improved input: tonnage is now sourced, 23 European flags for 1939 from Behrens 1955 and 28 African flags for 2024 from UNCTADstat; turning tonnage into troop berths uses stated assumptions of 124.6 berths per 1,000 gross tons and 15% usable by the military at once. Support rule, missing input: no usable source for army trucks or horse transport in either bloc, so the supply rule that divided by support holdings was set neutral, factor 1.0, for both. Unknown is not zero, and this is not a truck inventory. Both changes landed in the same commit and were tested separately.

ALT WARCOPE building-in-public card titled Two fixes, one commit, dated 13 October 2026: one improved input and one rule for a missing input. Merchant lift, improved input: tonnage is now sourced, 23 European flags for 1939 from Behrens 1955 and 28 African flags for 2024 from UNCTADstat; turning tonnage into troop berths uses stated assumptions of 124.6 berths per 1,000 gross tons and 15% usable by the military at once. Support rule, missing input: no usable source for army trucks or horse transport in either bloc, so the supply rule that divided by support holdings was set neutral, factor 1.0, for both. Unknown is not zero, and this is not a truck inventory. Both changes landed in the same commit and were tested separately.

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play it here: warcope.com

WARCOPE

2026 Africa vs 1939 Europe. Pick a side. Play your own campaign.

warcope.com
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