Dad | Data Analyst | Real Estate Investor l $BTC Maximalist
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Joined October 2010
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Rent concessions are on 14.5% of stabilized units, down from 17% in May. In 2010 it was half of all units.
The landlords still offering one are giving about 5.8 weeks free, the deepest in 15+ years. Fewer of them are desperate. The ones who are, really are.
NMHC's October survey of 130 multifamily execs: Debt Financing Index fell from 46 in July to 10. Equity fell from 44 to 17. Sales volume from 46 to 22.
The apartments are still mostly full. Getting a loan is the hard part right now.
National apartment rents are up 0.9% year over year. First positive annual number since Q2 2025.
Small number. But I've spent the last year underwriting flat or falling rents, so I'll take it.
Wally Taylor retweeted
LeBron fan: “Michael Jordan only won scoring titles because he led the league in FGA. He also led the league in missed shots.”
2 billion NBA fans: “…………… sigh”
Phoenix absorbed 17,000 apartment units in the first half of the year. Sun Belt construction starts are down 75% from the 2022 peak.
My local market might get tight by 2028. My kids' Halloween candy supply will be gone by Monday.
Your sponsor extended the loan. Four questions before you panic:
Was it in the business plan?
Is the lender extending from strength or as a favor?
Did the sponsor tell you first?
Is the equity above you intact?
A timeline change you can underwrite. A structural one, maybe not.
Apartment values are down 4% year over year and 22% below the 2022 peak.
Tempting to call that a sale. With Treasuries over 5%, I care more about whether the income grows than how far below peak I bought.
1/ A sponsor is buying a 318-unit Class A building in Houston for about $44M. The seller has about $68M in it. That's 36% below the seller's basis.
2/ Why it might make sense: Houston absorbed 7,008 units in Q2, 15.5% above its 5-year Q2 average, and units under construction are down 29.3% year over year.
The 10-year is sitting around 5.25-5.6%, and PIMCO's CIO says 6% is on the table.
For apartments that means pricier loans, tighter underwriting, and tougher refis.
If a deal only works when rates fall, it doesn't work.
The apartment glut is draining.
Renters absorbed about 304,800 units in the year to Q3. About 318,000 were delivered. That 13,000-unit gap is the smallest since late 2015.
Supply caught up to demand faster than the headlines did.
100% .. I'm also afraid it will never be like that again. Mainstream adoption.
This is a big fucking deal guys. PAY ATTENTION.
🚨 THE US REGULATORY SYSTEM JUST BROKE
In 48 hours, SpaceX goes public at $1.77 TRILLION - the biggest IPO ever
I've been trading for over a decade, and I have never seen them rewrite the rulebook like this
Nasdaq, MSCI, and the biggest brokers in America all bent their own rules for ONE private company
That doesn't happen by accident
Let me show you exactly what they did:
First, Fidelity dropped its minimum account size from $500,000 to $2,000
A 99.6% cut
Think about that:
The most exclusive door on Wall Street, thrown wide open to millions of small investors - days before the biggest debut in history.
Ask yourself one question
Why do they suddenly want YOU in?
Because somebody needs people to sell to.
SpaceX reserved 30% of the deal for retail
THREE TIMES the normal share
And even then, most people didn't get a full allocation.
So to grab more at Thursday's open, they're dumping everything else TODAY to raise cash.
That's half of the selling you're seeing.
The other half? The smart money front-running July.
Here's the trick:
SpaceX doesn't join the Nasdaq 100 on day one.
It joins 15 days later, because Nasdaq cut its own waiting period from 3 months to 15 days
Just for this.
The moment it joins, every QQQ fund on Earth is FORCED to buy.
$22–27 billion in automatic buying.
Translation: imagine 50 buses all forced to pull into the same gas station on the same morning.
The funds know the stampede is coming.
So they're selling now to free up cash for it. Retail selling. Institutions selling. At the exact same time.
THAT is your selloff.
Now here's the part nobody will say out loud:
When the most connected money on the planet builds a $1.7T exit door and hands the keys to the smallest investors in the market…
That's NOT generosity
That's distribution at the top.
We've seen this movie twice:
➮ 2000 Dotcom
➮ 2021 SPAC mania
Insiders cash out at insane valuations while the crowd chases the hype.
The math ain't mathing.
So you've got two choices in the next 48 hours:
Chase the most expensive IPO in history at the open…
Or read the prospectus and realize you might BE the exit.
The next few days will be INSANE, but don't worry - I'll break down every move as it happens, like I always do.
Like it or not, I called every major top and bottom of the last decade publicly. I'll call this one too.
Many people are going to wish they followed me before June 12, 2026.
Soon, you'll understand why.
Risk management in real estate investing isn't sexy but protecting your capital is: youtu.be/cufFRXGBnCo?si=URrb…
Passive Investing in Real Estate Easily Explained for Tech Professionsals: youtu.be/ArtY_W3JZe0?si=7D4Q…
