Wait Capital retweeted
Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data.
Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen.
Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However:
- credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years.
- more people are paying rent via credit card.
- average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago
- class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month.
- starting to see these renters move down a tier
Class B:
- simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous.
- fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50%
- considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets.
Class C:
- looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up
- more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades
- tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it
- wage growth has not kept up
Lenders:
- some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff.
- a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses.
- number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall.
- data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over.
I asked “how do you think this ends?”
“Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”
St. Andrews golf tourism sees warning sign as North American demand declines golfweek.usatoday.com/story/…
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These are the economic numbers going into the midterms:
Inflation when Trump took office: 3%.
Inflation today: 3.7%.
Wage gains when Trump took office: 4%
Wage gains today: 3%
Real wage gains when Trump took office: 1%
Real wage gains today: -0.7%
Cost of a gallon of gas when Trump took office: $3.13
Cost of a gallon of gas today: $4.33
Average monthly job creation in 2024: 122,000
Average monthly job creation since Trump took office: 39,000
Unemployment rate when Trump took office: 4%
Unemployment rate today: 4.2%
GDP growth 2024: 3%
Most recent quarter GDP growth: 2.2% (2026 average so far: 2.3%)
Deficit in 2024: $1.83 trillion
Deficit for 2026: $1.99 trillion
National debt 2024: $35.5 trillion
National debt 2026: $40.1 trillion
30-year mortgage rate when Trump took office: 7%
30-year mortgage rate today: 7.45%
Defense spending 2024: $874 billion
Defense spending 2026: $966 billion* (current OMB estimate)
Republican defense spending request for 2027: $1.5 trillion
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I am a member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
There are five of us. Five people, appointed by a parliament most of the planet could not find on a map, who decide, once a year, which human being the world has agreed to call good.
I know. I know. I think about it on the tram.
We meet in a building on Henrik Ibsens gate, a street named after a man who wrote almost exclusively about people discovering they are frauds, which nobody on the committee finds funny except me. There is a room with a long table and the portraits of the dead laureates looking down, Mandela, the Dalai Lama, a great many earnest men in spectacles, and one portrait we do not discuss, which is Kissinger, 1973, awarded while the bombs were still falling, after which two of our predecessors resigned and the satirist Tom Lehrer said political satire was now obsolete. We keep him on the wall. A reminder. Every family has the uncle.
It is October in Oslo, which means the sun gives up around four in the afternoon like a civil servant, and it rains the particular Norwegian rain that isn’t quite falling, just hanging there, judging you. I arrive with wet shoes. I always arrive with wet shoes. There is coffee, because this is Norway and there is always coffee, we drink more of it per person than almost anyone alive, and someone’s wife has sent kanelboller, the cinnamon buns, and we sit, five Norwegians, damp, caffeinated, sugared, and we decide the moral standing of the entire species.
Let me tell you how it actually works, because the world imagines a cathedral and it is, I promise you, a book club with a mandate.
287 nominations this year. 208 people, 79 organizations. Anyone can nominate, that’s the secret nobody understands: a professor, a parliamentarian, a former laureate, so the “nominee” list is meaningless, it’s a suggestion box, and every autumn some congressman nominates his own golden retriever and the press writes “SHORTLISTED.” Nobody is shortlisted. There is no short list the public ever sees. There is us, and the coffee, and the rain, and the portraits, and a Norwegian stubbornness that is older than the prize itself.
We read reports. The institute’s advisers write them, thick dull documents, and we argue. Our chairman told the BBC once that in the final meeting “there is a high temperature.” High temperature, for a Norwegian, means someone slightly raised an eyebrow and then apologized for it. We don’t do high temperature. We do a long silence, and then Kristin says “well,” and everyone knows exactly what “well” meant, and it’s settled. That’s our shouting. “Well.” You’d have to be raised here to hear the violence in it.
Now. This year. I will not say the name, because we never say the name, but you know the name.
A certain head of state wanted this prize the way a child wants a thing in a shop window, which is to say loudly, and in public, and with the full belief that wanting it was itself the argument. He said he deserved it. He said he’d ended eight wars, a number that grew most times he said it, like a fish. He had other heads of state phone us. Israel’s prime minister posted it on the internet, “Give him the Nobel.” The leaders of Cambodia and Pakistan announced they’d nominated him, as though announcing it were part of it, as though we tally mentions. A man flew around the globe collecting endorsements for a Norwegian committee the way you’d collect signatures for a petition to the council about a noisy dog.
And here, uff da, is the detail I treasure, the one that makes me smile into my coffee. The nomination deadline is the 31st of January. He took office on the 20th. So for all the phone calls, all the posts, all the gilded lobbying, the only nominations that could possibly count for this year’s prize were filed in the first eleven days of his term, before he had, by his own arithmetic, ended a single one of the eight wars. He campaigned all year for a prize whose window had shut while he was still hanging up his coat. We didn’t have to reject him. The calendar did. We just watched. Norwegians are very good at watching. We have long winters.
People think we sit there weighing his deeds. We don’t. That’s the thing I can’t make the world understand. We’re not grading his homework. We don’t owe anyone the prize for a ceasefire, however real, however loud the announcement. “He made peace” is not a sentence that ends in a medal, the way he believes it does, the way he believes every good thing ends in his name on it. The will of a dead Swede says the prize goes to whoever did the most for fraternity between nations. A dead Swede, I should add, who made his entire fortune inventing dynamite and selling arms, and spent his last years horrified at his own obituary, which called him a merchant of death, and so bought his way to immortality as a man of peace. The whole prize is one guilty arms dealer’s attempt to launder his name. We are, all of us, administering a dead man’s public relations. I find this clarifying. It keeps me humble. It should keep everyone humble, and it keeps, by my count, no one humble at all.
So who did we give it to?
An eighty-five-year-old woman. A judge. Born in Durban, under apartheid, granddaughter of a Tamil man who came to South Africa as indentured labor, a bus driver’s daughter from the poor Indian quarter, who became the first non-white woman to run a law practice in her province, who defended Mandela’s people when defending them was dangerous, who sat on the Rwanda tribunal and the court at the Hague, and who, at eighty-five, is right now a judge weighing whether a genocide is a genocide. When we told the world, our chairman said the rule of law “underpins the system we have set up to ensure peace,” and that “peace requires justice.” She wasn’t even in Oslo. She was in Nuremberg. In courtroom 600. The actual room where they tried the Nazis. You cannot stage that. God staged that, and God, it turns out, is a better satirist than any of us.
She did not phone us. She did not post. No prime minister demanded it for her on the internet. She had, as far as our deliberations are concerned, the one qualification the loud man could never manufacture, which is that she wanted the work and not the medal. The medal finds those people. It flees the ones who chase it. This is not a rule we wrote. It’s just the only pattern the hundred-odd years of our mistakes has ever shown.
The reaction from across the ocean was immediate. His spokesman posted that we “place politics over peace.” Ja. Perhaps. We’re five damp pensioners in a rainy city; of course it’s political, it was always political, it was political when we gave it to a sitting American president nine months into his first term for the promise of things he had not yet done, and we have been quietly embarrassed about that one for fifteen years, so believe me, we had a particular reason this year to prefer a woman with fifty years of verdicts behind her over a man with eight wars in front of him and a deadline already behind him.
Here is what he will never understand, the thing I’d tell him on the tram if he ever took one. We are the one prize he cannot buy, cannot post his way to, cannot have a friendly dictator phone in for him. Not because we’re incorruptible, nei, we’re as vain and wrong and human as the portraits on our wall. But because the entire point of the thing, the only power a small cold country’s book club has ever held, is that it goes to the person not performing the wanting. The moment you demand it, you’ve proven you don’t understand what it’s for, and proving that is itself the disqualification. He ran the most expensive campaign in the history of the prize and the campaign was the reason. He was never losing to Navi Pillay. He was losing to the concept.
It’s dark now. Four o’clock dark. The buns are gone. Kristin said “well” an hour ago and we all went home. I’m on the tram with my wet shoes, and somewhere across the water a very powerful man is explaining to a camera that the prize is rigged, that we’re corrupt, that he’ll win it next year, and he genuinely might, we’re only five idiots and we’ve been wrong before, Kissinger is still on the wall.
But not this year. This year an old woman in Nuremberg, in the room where the law once stared down the exact kind of man who thinks wanting a thing loudly enough should make it his, got a phone call she didn’t ask for.
That’s the job. We don’t reward the man who ends the war and announces it.
We reward the woman who spent fifty years deciding what a war was.
He’ll never see the difference. That’s rather the whole point of him.
Takk for i dag. I have to change trams.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb@nntalebOct 9
United States
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Capitalism works if and only if all members see themselves as "pre-rich" or "feasibly-rich-if-they-wanted-it-badly-enough". Remove that and the system collapses.
Wait Capital retweeted
My son’s weight increased by 2lbs in his first month.
At this rate of growth, he will weigh the earth’s mass by the age of 14, and start doubling it soon after.
Anthropic's Sholto Douglas says AI capex could rise from $1 trillion this year to $4 trillion in 2028 and begin doubling humanity’s GDP by the early 2030s
“Over the course of the last four or five years, we’ve been 2x-ing or 3x-ing the amount of compute capacity devoted to AI every year."
"And so I think that’s roughly, together, the hyperscalers are spending about a trillion dollars this year on capex related to AI. A very interesting question will be, will that trend line hold, and so will it go to $2 trillion next year and then $4 trillion in 2028?"
"And if that trend line broadly holds, and you can expand that to encompass the broader robotics industry, then that means that in the early 2030s, you start to get to the point where you’re actually effectively doubling the GDP of humanity, which, again, is a little bit of a ridiculous concept, but requires a lot of things to go right.”
Wait Capital retweeted
If the AI industry hasn't shown a meaningful positive impact on society after 4+ years and $ trillions in capex, then it never will.
Their strategy is all wrong. No amount of money is going to fix that.
Anthropic's Sholto Douglas says AI capex could rise from $1 trillion this year to $4 trillion in 2028 and begin doubling humanity’s GDP by the early 2030s
“Over the course of the last four or five years, we’ve been 2x-ing or 3x-ing the amount of compute capacity devoted to AI every year."
"And so I think that’s roughly, together, the hyperscalers are spending about a trillion dollars this year on capex related to AI. A very interesting question will be, will that trend line hold, and so will it go to $2 trillion next year and then $4 trillion in 2028?"
"And if that trend line broadly holds, and you can expand that to encompass the broader robotics industry, then that means that in the early 2030s, you start to get to the point where you’re actually effectively doubling the GDP of humanity, which, again, is a little bit of a ridiculous concept, but requires a lot of things to go right.”
Wait Capital retweeted
My call right now is Paxton wins by 2%, Abbott by 7%.
50 years doing grassroots Texas GOP work normally gives me a good feel.
Paxton squeaks by- in an election that would be double digits with a less atrocious candidate.
(BTW: I'm not voting at all. I refuse to choose either one of the forms of insanity; Democrat socialism or MAGA socialism.)
Wait Capital retweeted
Once you dig into the “AI industry” it becomes clearer & clearer what it really is.
It is an extraction project.
It has already extracted the ENTIRE DIGITIZABLE OUTPUT OF HUMANITY. Our ideas. Our art. Our science. Our math.
Through a clever algorithm discovered in 2017, Jensen Huang and Peter Thiel’s protege Sam Altman figured out how to accelerate existing “generative AI” technology with GPUs. This was NOT an innovation in accuracy or “intelligence,” it was a way to process an old algorithm in parallel.
OpenAI was staffed in large part by “Effective Altruists”—a cult started based on the doomer science fiction of Eliezer Yudkowsky on the website LessWrong.
Peter Thiel was the initial funding for OpenAI, EA, and Yudkowsky.
OpenAI successfully convinced the market, and themselves in many cases, that they had birthed some new form of life. They just needed to make it BIGGER and it was destined to become “superintelligent.”
Based on Yudkowsky’s goofy ideas, AI was gradually anthropomorphized and deified—despite the fact that it was just software regurgitating the exhaust of human beings. The entire “alignment” movement is based on the presumption that chatbots deserve “moral standing.” It’s exhaustingly ignorant.
Eventually OpenAI employee Dario Amodei, a dedicated EA adherent, became concerned that OpenAI was not RELIGIOUS ENOUGH about AI being sentient, so he broke off to form Anthropic and named his chatbot after a person.
This false premise, that an algorithm was somehow producing “intelligence” was further amplified by training the output to sound as human, and addictive, as possible.
The combination of a kind of religious fervor inside, a deceptive product, and a flood of influence operations on the outside fueled a wild flow of speculative investment in both OpenAI and Anthropic—and especially into NVIDIA.
This eventually poisoned the entire technology sector which came to believe that the “race for AGI” was existential, so they committed TRILLIONS to achieving it. The data centers are all a function of a misunderstanding of what they are building.
Generative pre-trained transformers (GPT) are NEVER going to be intelligent, much less conscious. All they do is take our stolen stuff and sell it back to us. They do not experience. They do not do anything—unless you send a string of text for them to process.
Nevertheless, the entire financial industry, and now the federal government is pushing this dead-end project to engulf the nation in data centers and swallow the economy with “AI factories.”
It’s downright insanity. All of that capital expenditure is already junk. It can physically never make money. It’s built for GPUs which are the wrong substrate for AI.
Large language models are useful search engines for stuff we’ve already done. They are the compressed, digitized exhaust of humans with a clever language interface. That’s it.
There is no moat. There is no real innovation. There is just an accelerationist delusion and no adults in sight. Chatbots are a software feature, a commodity, that has metastasized into a cult digging a $10 TRILLION DITCH.
The reason this has gone so far is that rather than compete in a democratic capitalist system for the best technology product, this cabal of lunatics created an “internet alternate reality” that could “unilaterally change the world.”
The current AI industry is the largest extraction project in history. It is strip mining humanity and selling it back to us as slop.
“If you’re evil, you’re not bad, and maybe that means you’re kind of good.”
—Peter Thiel
The AI industry & Trump regime are driving America into a $10 trillion ditch chasing the fantasy of “Super Intelligence.”
But the dirty little secret is that it will never work. Spending trillions on GPUs is like betting America’s future on punchcards.
mind-war.com/p/super-intelli…
Wait Capital retweeted
*BROADCOM TO LEND ANTHROPIC UP TO $42B TO LEASE ITS CHIPS: RTRS
* Have we seen the synthetic CDO backed by chip rents yet? :)
Wait Capital retweeted

Morning Brew ☕️@MorningBrewSep 29
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🚨 Anthropic IPO S-1 prospectus LEAKED:
Valuation target: $2 TRILLION
>$4.6 billion in revenue in 2025
>$8.06 billion in operating loss
>$42 billion in net loss
The prospectus warns that nearly 25% of revenue came from just TWO customers, and that many top enterprise clients aren't locked into long-term contracts and could cut spending or walk away anytime
Anthropic plans to spend $518 BILLION on compute commitments ‘in the coming year’
Wait Capital retweeted
Replying to @jedimarkus77
Made 60m last 9 months and wants 11b in valuation lol
Wait Capital retweeted
a few generations ago when the US was at war, it was your patriotic duty to buy bonds
Wait Capital retweeted
After seeing another robust GenAI led durable goods order number, I can only again think that we have a US economy that is mainly dependent on this CapEx orgy and upper income consumers that are highly reliant on a stock market that is hugely hooked on GenAI and this CapEx spend.
Wait Capital retweeted
Quote of the Day (from @QTRResearch)
"My warning to subscribers remains the same: do not confuse the price blinking on your screen with some immutable statement about economic reality.
This isn’t the stock market of the 1980s or 1990s. We now have zero day options, enormous passive vehicles, algorithmic strategies, volatility products, dealer gamma hedging and trillions of dollars responding mechanically to price.
After more than a decade of zero rates, QE and monetary intervention, I increasingly think we’re staring at a financial mirage, a fiat driven, QE induced hallucination where price temporarily becomes its own justification.
Nothing feels particularly real anymore.
But that’s the funny thing about a mirage, it all looks perfectly real right up until you try to drink the water." @KeithMcCullough @carlquintanilla @TheJudgeCNBC @tomkeene @peterboockvar @convertbond @Hedgeye_HGRO @Hedgeye_HELS @HedgeyeDJ @gnoble79 @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick @annmarie @business @cnbcfastmoney @SullyCNBC @guyadami
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Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburrySep 19
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Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburrySep 17
United States
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
“One of the reasons why I am in favor of less government is because when you have more government, industrialists take it over, and the two together form a coalition against the ordinary worker and the ordinary consumer.”
— Milton Friedman




























