multi strat, delta hedging, acquisition intelligence

Hong Kong
Joined June 2018
The SaaS dead narrative is being applied indiscriminately to ALL software. But the real losers are point solution SaaS single-purpose tools like DocuSign, Asana, Salesforce. The real winners are platform companies that can become the operating system for AI agents. $MSFT and $ORCL are platforms, not point solutions. They are the infrastructure layer that AI agents run ON. The irony is the SaaSpocalypse should long-term be bullish for both: more AI agents = more Azure compute = more Oracle database queries = more revenue. Price creates its own narrative. A stock falling 50% looks like it deserves to fall 50%. Most investors don't dig deeper or waiting for actual numbers because of capex fears. MSFT reports April 28. ORCL reports June 8. Those are the first moments the market gets real confirmation or denial of whether the infrastructure thesis is correct. The market does NOT yet know: 1. Whether ORCL's $553B backlog converts on schedule ❓ 2. Whether Azure guides 40%+ acceleration on April 28 ❓ 3. Whether Copilot adds 20M+ paid seats by June ❓
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$TSM looks like free money here
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if civilization is going down, the least i can do is choose a decent view: Bariloche, Phuket, Cancún, the Bahamas, or Jeju Island? or perhaps i should try to save humanity, although that seems rather ambitious for someone who can't even decide where to spend the winter? alternatively, i could embrace the delusional optimism, pretend everything is going to be fine, and diversify my thoughts across several varieties of denial. then again, sometimes i suspect humanity is overdue for a proper tragedy: without suffering, sacrifice, and the occasional collapse of civilization, what really separates us from animals? apart from the fact that animals generally know when to stop destroying their own habitat.
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it was... and goyim felt for it as always
this is clearly a shakeout before post midterms pump, long overdue
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buying some $CRWV here for the sake of gambling
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the French Revolution (1789–1799) began because France was effectively bankrupt, ordinary people were struggling to afford food, and the monarchy maintained a political system that protected aristocratic privileges. who won? The monarchy was destroyed, but the radical revolutionaries eventually lost too. By 1794, more moderate, property-owning republicans had gained control. Five years later, Napoleon seized power. Napoleon imposed censorship, restored slavery in French colonies in 1802, and introduced discriminatory restrictions against Jews in 1808 such as: 1. state-controlled Judaism: established officially recognized Jewish consistories to supervise rabbis, synagogues, and religious communities. 2. debt cancellation: cancelled or reduced certain debts owed to Jewish lenders under special rules. 3. business restrictions: required Jewish merchants to obtain annually renewable government licenses. 4. restrictions on moneylending: imposed special rules on interest, loan contracts, and debt collection by Jewish creditors. 5. settlement restrictions: prohibited new Jewish settlement in Alsace and restricted Jewish immigration into France. 6. military conscription: prevented Jewish conscripts from hiring substitutes, a privilege available to other citizens. fun fact: Hitler admired Napoleon and wanted to surpass him
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Iran say... who the fuck cares what they say at this point?
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trading $TSLA solely because of the roadster show and X sentiment is a definition of a retail goy
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this is clearly a shakeout before post midterms pump, long overdue
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Tencent has begun testing Xiaowei, an AI agent integrated directly into Weixin (WeChat) it uses a customized model called WeLM optimized for Weixin use cases, privacy and inference efficiency. if agentic AI moves in this direction where you think Muse form meta is going, then Tencent owns one of the most valuable distribution surfaces in the world. $700.hk, all it's non AI business is also growing at a very good rate for Chinese company btw, much better then non ai $BABA stale growth and the fact that it's burning considerably more cash relative to its operating cash generation. Tencent: Domestic games: +17% Marketing/advertising: +22% FinTech + Business Services: +9% Total revenue: +11% Gross profit: +13% and before you start talking about gaming bear market: the distinction between a bear market for game developers and a bear market for game consumption is critical - Tencent's latest numbers actually show the opposite of a gaming recession. according to @TimSweeneyEpic, the economics of producing games have become horrible for many developers because of rising costs in the west and rising competition for gamers attention from other various forms of content and I may also add inflation, wars, etc. but suppose AI gets dramatically better at making games, therefore the cost of producing a credible game falls, but Tencent's real advantages are: distribution + existing player communities + IP + live operations + payments + marketing + data + capital, and those become more important when making a game becomes easy and like when cost of making a smartphone app collapsed it's actually made distribution layer like Apple store and Google store more valuable. besides, Tencent has a gigantic balance sheet, which means a development recession can let Tencent acquire studios, IPs and teams at ATL prices and then improve margins by using AI and owning a ton of distribution + compute power. of course there are great risks of ai capex, geopolitics and china macro involved which doesn't make me really interested in Chinese stocks as core positions, but it's good enough as satellite for emerging markets and I do think that Tencent is better then Alibaba in that regard... and oh yeah I do live in China at the moment and this is sponsored by CCP for social credit score bonus obviously.
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superintelligence. what does that even mean? super like what - superman, superpowers, superfood? it’s a bunch of fairy tales they feed you so you stay fired up, and so the money, the talent, and the rules all move the way they want. they sell it as either guaranteed salvation or guaranteed doom, and this shit sells - goyim love this shit because it gives them thrill and meanings to their meaningless lifes, our civilisation is built on lies and fairy tales and that is why I am balls deep long
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the problem with mid-curve people is they assume everyone else isn’t dumb enough to fall for a good lie, but they miss that those same lies can turn into reality if enough people believe them hard enough.
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$AVGO should be much higher because management has already locked supply and named customers (Google TPUs, Anthropic scaling from 1 GW to 10 GW, OpenAI) for an AI-semiconductor ramp from about $58 billion in fiscal 2026 to $115 billion in 2027 and $230 billion in 2028, with non-GAAP EPS guided near $30, so at roughly $355 the stock is under 12 times those 2028 earnings versus a recent 40–55 times range and market is pricing a large miss on a ramp the company says is already contracted.
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this battle between bulls and gay boomer bears for $ORCL is the most important one in the history of mankind, few..
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the good thing about escalating a war is that if shit hits the fan, the fight ends pretty quick and somebody wins. that’s better than a long, grinding war of attrition if you think about it.
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$RBLX is going to zero, opus 5.5 will eat it on breakfast
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rate hikes will attract more capital into safe profitable compounder like $MSFT
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imagine being the guy in 2077 who has to tell his grandkids they own nothing and should be happy about it, because he spent his life trying to stop the AI revolution, the singularity, space exploration and was looking forward to live like a medieval peasant.
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$ORCL pulled the clause because power for project Jupiter is late, and late power can make 2028 opening miss. Jupiter is a 2.45 GW campus, tenant Oracle, customer OpenAI / Stargate and it does not run on the public grid at scale, so it needs its own gas → $BE fuel cells or $GEV turbines. permits already failed once: original plan was gas turbines + diesel, but state/air issues forced a pivot to Bloom fuel cells (thanks anti data centers goyim) and that bought political cover, but cost more / slipped the calendar. big news? not really, delay payments if it misses 2028, not tear up Stargate, official line is still “on schedule.” permitting + midstream killed the original power plan → fuel cells still need gas → gas is late → 2028 COD is at risk → they froze the payment clock.
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they can simply re route power before investor day tbh
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$ORCL is the worst ai stock I've ever traded
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