caleb

Cautious 2028 senate ratings?

Bodnar and Achilles flopped more than Osborn or Bengs

Why should quantitative election models bother using "expert ratings"?

They might lose CA23 by less than Prop 50 anyways

If you recognize many Sen noms outrunning house ballots, if a Dem had stayed in the race for ID-Sen they could have got at least 34%, higher than Achilles' 33.5

Democrats were only 5ish seats from beating their 2008 seats-per-vote score

TX-09 left of TX-35 🥲

Sign of the Memphis area Blacklash: DeSoto county MS is voting to the left in both its House and Senate race

It's funny that sometimes voters will do this in response to a gerrymander

Approx

Caution that Western states like UT/AZ/CA may be more than 4pts off estimate since they have only partial results

Normally Indiana isn't close enough to be discussed this way but the GOP is lucky to have good geography there. I think Dems still only get 3/9 last night if the map was more nonpartisan. The 9-0 gerrymander would have failed, though

Good stuff!

I wonder if the people entertaining the bullish case for David Jolly are underestimating the extent it would also apply to Angie Nixon

das rite