
Developing Investors with @fink_money | “Anything can happen and it probably will” | Everything’s Gambling | Risk Ain’t a Dirty Word
Spain
Joined July 2016
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This Thursday at 12pm, we’re running a free group call, mainly for British traders and investors.
We’ll be hammering home a few key points about the upcoming market and hedging political insanity.
Like this post and I’ll drop you the link.
Replay will be available but if you don’t show up live I won’t be able to answer your questions 😉
Interestingly, our best clients are the ones who tend never to have had a process or original thought about the market.
They start with no preconceptions and as long as they are 100% in, they learn the quickest.
Our hardest clients are those who have had some form of process but don’t really like the discomfort of switching, even if their process leads to sporadic drawdowns and anxiety.
Someone buys a stock with no real plan.
It drops.
Then the plan gets created on the way down (average down, 'it's a long term hold now', 'the thesis hasn't changed' blah blah blah see Leo Aschenbrenner).
Your process doesn't have to be complex. Honestly the simpler the better imo (take a factor based approach to start).
What it does have to be is intended. You decided what you'd do before you touch any new position or making a new decision.
And it has to be objective, run the same decisions whether you're up on it or down on it - that way you’re ensuring you’re not letting your monkey brain stray.
If you'd do something different ‘just because’ you don't really have one.
Most people I speak to think they have a process. Most of them don't tbh.
We created a quiz to see whether your process is good or not.
Take it 👇
Someone buys a stock with no real plan.
It drops.
Then the plan gets created on the way down (average down, 'it's a long term hold now', 'the thesis hasn't changed' blah blah blah see Leo Aschenbrenner).
Your process doesn't have to be complex. Honestly the simpler the better imo (take a factor based approach to start).
What it does have to be is intended. You decided what you'd do before you touch any new position or making a new decision.
And it has to be objective, run the same decisions whether you're up on it or down on it - that way you’re ensuring you’re not letting your monkey brain stray.
If you'd do something different ‘just because’ you don't really have one.
Most people I speak to think they have a process. Most of them don't tbh.
We created a quiz to see whether your process is good or not.
Take it 👇
Tim retweeted
1. Kids set up a new company that becomes the marketing agency for the family business.
2. The marketing agency collects a fee that dramatically reduces the profit in the parents company.
3. The marketing agency acquires a minority stake with savage voting rights.
4. Independent valuation shows that this structure makes the business almost worthless.
5. The marketing company acquires the remaining shares.
Success in the UK is now 50% being excellent at what you do and 50% avoiding the governments latest scheme to derail the success and independence of your family.
🚨 NEW: John Healey is considering introducing income tax on parents who pass their business down to their children in the Budget
[@Telegraph]
Tim retweeted
Billions of pounds lost on a single project because we can’t connect it to the grid for half a decade and have destroyed our capacity to generate reliable electricity.
Exclusive: Microsoft cancels UK data centre deal with Nscale. Comes just as Nscale hopes to pull off a $35 billion IPO telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
Momentum has the best performance of the last 30 years.
The most obvious change you can make to your portfolio is to focus on momentum and quality.
Yes, momentum has had drawdowns this year (mainly due to long duration themes facing higher financing costs)…
But you can’t argue with the data.
If long momentum, you just need to have a seriously robust and structured risk management system to get you out.
Brits keep 34.7% of their money in cash.
US households invest 3x more of their cash in shares of companies.
It’s not that Brits don’t have the cash to invest like many say.
It’s that there is a problem with risk taking.
Amazing work
AI predictions for next 6-9 months
-> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US
-> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs
-> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost
-> Elon open sources Grok
-> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS
-> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable
-> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed
-> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations
-> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27"
-> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization
-> 10yr hits >5%
-> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea
-> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower
-> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round
-> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold
-> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week
-> hypers cut fy27 capex
-> semis reprice >80% lower
-> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession
Drawdowns are fine.
Excessive drawdowns are not.
Have a plan and switch your brain off to avoid them.
The ONLY thing you can control in markets is risk.
Find out if your process is breaking down: pages.fink.money/process-sco…
We’ve given the FinkOS programme to people for free.
And I am seeing them post huge losses because they didn’t touch one piece of content.
Versus those that pay for it who aren’t even breaking a sweat.
And then people ask why we charge for it.
Thats why - if you don’t pay for something the perceived value is low so you don’t care.
Since tokenised stocks are becoming seriously popular, we're catering to the crypto guys and girls who might want more insight into stocks and how they behave (a crypto portfolio is VERY different to a stock portfolio).
Building a stock portfolio gives you plenty of opportunity to tailor it how you want, and it has benefits when correlations don't = 1.
One of the benefits of coming from crypto, though, is that you have the absolute risk-taking ability that many we speak with in stocks do not have.
We accept crypto for FinkOS.
Drop me a message and we can have a chat.
Tim retweeted
It’s finished.
This book represents fifteen years of experiences, notes, lessons, and patterns observed directly through my work. But turning all of that into a physical volume was one of the most challenging things I’ve taken on.
Most of the time I felt like I had no idea what I was doing.
Putting how I coach and think onto the page turned out to be far harder than taking notes or speaking with a client. In conversation, you’ve got tone, physical presence, and direct feedback to guide the exchange. On the page, you don’t have any of that. You’ve got to make sense while respecting the reader’s time and intelligence.
It was a continuous cycle of writing, evaluating, rewriting, editing, and re-editing to turn years of separate notes into clear, direct prose.
I used LLMs throughout the build as an aggressive review partner to critique arguments, test the limits of the material, challenge assumptions, and point out weak reasoning. Alongside that, I leaned on trusted people who gave me blunt, unvarnished feedback on what worked and what fell flat. It wasn't always comfortable to hear, but it was incredibly necessary. If an idea didn’t survive scrutiny, it didn’t stay in the manuscript.
The hardest part was removing unnecessary material. Cutting padding sounds simple until you see how easy it is to rely on excess words. A manual of this nature can’t waste the reader's focus with unnecessary length or academic posturing. If a sentence didn’t directly improve practical clarity, execution, or internal consistency, I deleted it. Only what was necessary stayed.
Then came production. The challenge wasn’t just writing. It was the layout, typesetting, document structure, and cover design, none of which I’d done before. After facing setbacks with external professionals whose output didn’t meet my standards, I took over the work, sat down, and learned how to use InDesign within a week to build the entire book myself.
Massive thanks to my partner for her support throughout the entire grind, and to my friend @Volatim for the direct nudge to finally get this work out into the world.
Become a Performance Alchemist: A Field Manual For High Performers.
Forty chapters on pressure, conflict, status dynamics, blind spots, and the reality of standards you defend in one place and abandon in another.
Hardcover, paperback, and Kindle editions will be live on Amazon KDP next week. Links to follow
unlucky
Leopold Aschenbrenner might genuinely be the unluckiest motherfucker alive.
After getting absolutely destroyed in July and being forced to liquidate much of his AI portfolio, he reportedly came back swinging in early September, buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of options premium.
Look at how those stocks have performed since September 8:
$CRWV: -37.4%
$SKHY: -25.8%
$SNDK: -23.8%
$DRAM: -22.9%
$BE: -18.1%
$INTC: -9.4%
$AMD: +9.1%
Six out of seven are underwater, with an average decline of roughly 18.6%.
And remember, we're talking about someone who reportedly rebuilt exposure through leveraged options, not just common shares.
Imagine surviving a massive forced liquidation, watching your favorite stocks recover, deciding it's finally safe to get back in, and then getting hit by ANOTHER brutal selloff barely a month later.
The worst part about options is that you can be absolutely right about the long-term AI infrastructure thesis and still lose a fortune because your timing was wrong.
I genuinely feel for the guy.
The market has absolutely no mercy.
When I see a lot of mention about conviction and thesis I tend to think 'hehe, you're gonna average down on losers.'
Conviction has a place but I'd much rather rely on market signals than my brain (i hit myself in the eye with a padel ball yesterday btw and now it's bloody) to make decisions for me.
Tim retweeted
Tell-tale signs that an investor letter is about to disclose returns that smell worse than a wet garbage bag on a hot Florida morning.
- Opening prose includes Greek philosophy
- Quotes Ben Graham
- Portfolio is "well positioned" for "ridiculous CAGR"
Speaking with @Natali_Monardo and @LeverageShares at 12pm.
This’ll be a great ep - lots has happened this week.
Hit the button below to set your reminder!
xitter.cf/i/spaces/1pJdRDdBZyyKW
The problem with the line 'only chips are carrying the index' is at any given point there will always be a sector that will be carrying the index.
Years ago it was railroads.
In the 00s it was financials.
What is also true is there will always be someone who complains about this who is not long the sector carrying the index.
Leo needs to exit the market.
It wants to punish him.
Imagine the second time in a year getting carted out like this.
Tim retweeted
NEW: $WOLF and Infineon expand and extend long term SiC wafer agreement to include 200mm.
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