Papertrade has been proposed to be a $60M rug scheme Its TVL experiences a loss of 70%, sliding down from $100M to $36M since launch date Never was bullish on it, moreover after points system update (early users' efforts will be washed) Here's how to profit from the TVL fall: I made a prediction that Papertrade's TVL will not be above $35M on Tuesday on Prophet [graveyard.prophetthedog.xyz/…] In return I get a tokenized prediction, an NFT that shows my picked side > If my prediction wins - I get an airdrop in $PROPHET > If not - I can burn my NFT and spin a wheel and still get some portion of tokens That's basically rekt to riches mechanic

TSITSIPAS IS THE FAVOURITE. BUT THE PRICE MATTERS TOO Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Aleksandar Kovacevic My lean is Tsitsipas Polymarket has him at around 78¢, with Kovacevic at 23¢ Tsitsipas has the stronger track record at this level, so I lean his way, but 78¢ doesn’t make this a guaranteed win And before taking a position, I checked Thumper by @magicmarkets Here’s what it showed at the time of my check 78.1¢ on MagicMarkets 78.9¢ all in on Polymarket Same player. Same outcome. Different price According to Thumper, that difference means around $0.70 more winnings per $100 paid out when taking the cheaper price It’s not a massive gap, but small differences matter when you’re comparing the exact same position The part I like most is how easy it is to use Thumper updates prices in real time and puts the comparison right next to Polymarket No switching tabs No manual calculations Just check the price before you make your move I’ll do my own tennis analysis Thumper helps me see whether I’m getting a competitive price The pick matters The price matters too

EALA IS THE FAVOURITE, BUT THIS ISN’T A FREE WIN Ningbo Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diane Parry Alexandra Eala around 73¢ on Polymarket I’m leaning Eala, but there’s more to this matchup than the price suggests Eala is one of the biggest rising names in women’s tennis, and she has the return game to put pressure on Parry’s serve But the timing isn’t ideal for either player Eala has lost her last three matches, while Parry comes in after four straight defeats That makes this an interesting spot on Polymarket The market gives Eala a clear edge, but she still needs to prove she can turn that advantage into a win Parry has enough variety to disrupt the rhythm, and her first serve can help her keep points short For me, the key is whether Eala can consistently attack Parry’s serve and control the rallies from the baseline If she does, I like her chances to get back on track At around 73¢, I’m leaning Eala But I’m not calling this a lock One match A rising star A real test of confidence Let’s see if Eala can turn the page in Ningbo

1/ i built a chrome extension for @magicmarkets that shows you when polymarket isn't the cheapest place to take a sports position it's called thumper. Free to use, no account required 🧵

THIS 2-LEG TENNIS COMBO COULD BE A BANGER I’M GOING FOR ~1.66x ON POLYMARKET → Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur → Alexander Zverev to win → Wuhan Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Iga Swiatek → Iga Swiatek to win I’m not picking these because they’re my favorite players I’m looking at the matchups and the prices on Polymarket Zverev is the risky leg for me He’s priced at 66¢, and this is not a matchup I’d call easy He just survived a brutal three-set battle against Bublik, winning both tiebreaks, while de Minaur came through his last match in straight sets Alex has also won their last two meetings, so Zverev needs to use his serve and power to take control instead of letting the rallies turn into a physical grind I still like Zverev’s ability to dictate from the baseline, but this is the leg that could decide the combo Swiatek is the favourite I trust more She’s at 90¢ on Polymarket after cruising past Magdalena Frech 6-2, 6-1 Krueger has shown resilience by fighting back from a set down in her previous match, but this is a huge step up in opponent quality Swiatek’s return game and ability to put constant pressure on her opponent should make it difficult for Krueger to find a comfortable rhythm Zverev at 66¢ Swiatek at 90¢ My Polymarket slip shows $1.66 to win from a $1 stake Two recognizable names Two very different matchups One combo Zverev brings the risk, Swiatek brings the stability Let’s see if they can cash

1/ i built a chrome extension for @magicmarkets that shows you when polymarket isn't the cheapest place to take a sports position it's called thumper. Free to use, no account required 🧵

BERGS JUST KNOCKED OUT ALCARAZ. NOW TOMMY PAUL GETS THE TEST I’M GOING FOR ~3.38x ON POLYMARKET → Shanghai Rolex Masters: Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger-Aliassime → Felix Auger-Aliassime to win → Shanghai Rolex Masters: Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs → Tommy Paul to win → Wuhan Tennis Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula → Jessica Pegula to win I’m not picking these because they’re my favorite players I’m looking at the matchups and the prices on Polymarket Auger-Aliassime is the first spot I like He’s around 58¢ on Polymarket and has won his last four meetings with Ruud, leading their head-to-head 6-4 overall Ruud has looked sharp in Shanghai and just beat Learner Tien in straight sets, so this is far from a free pick. But Felix has the recent head-to-head advantage, and his aggressive first-strike game can make a real difference on hard court The biggest storyline is Tommy Paul vs Bergs Bergs just pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the tournament by beating Alcaraz 7-5, 7-6(4). He’s full of confidence, but Paul has his own momentum after taking out defending champion Valentin Vacherot in straight sets Paul also won their previous meeting at Indian Wells this year. I like his movement, consistency and ability to redirect pace, especially if he can make Bergs play one extra ball instead of letting him dictate the points The third leg is Pegula She’s around 73¢ on Polymarket, and she leads Ostapenko 3-1 in their head-to-head Ostapenko looked dangerous in her opening match, winning 6-1, 6-1, so I’m not underestimating her power. But Pegula’s return game and consistency give her a way to neutralize that aggression. The question is whether Pegula finds her rhythm quickly after her break from competition Auger-Aliassime around 58¢ Tommy Paul around 67¢ Jessica Pegula around 73¢ That puts the combo at roughly 3.38x based on those prices Three recognizable names Three different matchups One combo Bergs has already delivered the shock of the tournament. Now I’m backing Paul to handle the pressure, with Felix and Pegula completing the card Let’s see if they can cash

THIS 2-LEG TENNIS COMBO COULD BE A BANGER I’M GOING FOR ~2.63x ON POLYMARKET → Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik → Alexander Zverev to win → Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina → Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win I’m not picking these because they’re my favorite players I’m looking at the matchups and the prices on Polymarket Zverev is the headline pick He’s the clear favourite at around 73¢, but Bublik is exactly the kind of opponent who can make this uncomfortable. He has won most of their previous meetings and just survived a crazy three-set battle against Brandon Nakashima I’m backing Zverev because his consistency from the baseline gives him a way to control the match, but he can’t afford to let Bublik dictate every point with his serve and aggressive first shot The interesting leg is Davidovich Fokina He’s around 50¢ on Polymarket, so the market sees this as almost a coin flip But Fokina leads the head-to-head 5-2 and beat Hurkacz in their most recent meeting in Chengdu. Hurkacz has the serve to make this difficult, but Fokina’s movement and ability to extend rallies give him a real chance to take control This is the leg where I see the most interesting price Zverev at 73¢ Davidovich Fokina at 50¢ Around 2.63x combined on Polymarket Two recognizable names Two different matchups One combo I’d rather take two spots I can actually explain than force a third leg just to make the multiplier bigger

THIS 2-LEG TENNIS COMBO COULD BE A BANGER I’M GOING FOR ~2.22x ON POLYMARKET → Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys → Alexander Zverev to win → Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe → Frances Tiafoe to win I’m not picking these because they’re my favorite players I’m looking at the matchups and the prices on Polymarket Zverev is the anchor pick He’s the top seed in Shanghai and comes in after beating Wu Yibing. Against Halys, I trust Zverev’s serve and baseline control to give him the edge over the course of the match. Halys has a big serve of his own, so Zverev still needs to stay focused and avoid giving away cheap points The interesting leg is Tiafoe He’s sitting around 51¢ on Polymarket, which tells you how close this matchup is. Fokina is a tough opponent who can extend rallies and make you work for every point, but Tiafoe has the shot-making and explosiveness to take control when he finds his rhythm This is the leg carrying more risk, but it’s also what gives the combo its upside Zverev at 86¢ Tiafoe at 51¢ Around 2.22x combined One strong favourite One high-pressure matchup Two spots I actually like I’d rather take two real matchups than force a third leg just to make the multiplier bigger

THIS IS THE MATCH I’M WATCHING TODAY China Open: Coco Gauff vs Elise Mertens Coco Gauff 78¢ Elise Mertens 23¢ Gauff is the clear favourite here, but I think this is one of those matches where the price is more interesting than the name Gauff has been one of the most reliable players in Beijing, with a 23-3 record in China and a title here in 2024 Mertens is experienced enough to make this uncomfortable, especially if she can extend the rallies and force Gauff to play one more ball every point But Gauff has the bigger weapons and much more upside when she gets control of the baseline exchanges 78¢ is not exactly a cheap price But compared with some of the other favourites on the board, this is a matchup I’m much more comfortable backing One big name One experienced opponent One price I’m watching Let’s see if Gauff can make the 78¢ look cheap

TENNIS HAS A SCOREBOARD. MARKETS HAVE THE FINE PRINT And if you only look at who won, you can miss how the whole thing actually works @parimatch Prediction lets you take positions on outcomes, but the mechanics around those positions can be very different Then there's hedging In tennis, imagine backing Player A and then taking the other side later when the price moves That can reduce your exposure, but it does not magically guarantee profit The same logic applies to prediction markets And now the part many people confuse Cashback is not simply "lose one bet, get money back" It is based on eligible net losses over a defined period Rakeback works differently It depends on eligible real money wagering, the house edge and the applicable rakeback rate, whether the bet wins or loses Parimatch's VIP program currently lists up to 10% rakeback and up to 7% weekly cashback, with no wagering requirement for these benefits VIP status can also come with things like personal hosts, status matching and level up rewards, depending on your qualifying activity and deposits The timing matters too Daily cashback is claimed within 24 hours Weekly cashback can be claimed on Monday within 3 days Monthly cashback is claimed on the 1st within 7 days And "up to" is doing a lot of work here Eligibility depends on the specific product and terms, and arbitrage restrictions matter So before looking at the odds, the same way you would before placing a tennis pick, read the rules around the number The headline gets the attention The mechanics decide what actually happens

DJOKOVIC AT 64¢. IS THIS THE RIGHT PRICE? Shanghai Rolex Masters. Round 2 Novak Djokovic 65¢ on Polymarket Hubert Hurkacz 35¢ This is one of the most interesting matchups on the board today Djokovic just won his seventh China Open title, beating Alexander Zverev on the way, but the final ended early when Alex de Minaur retired with an injury Now he gets Hurkacz, a player who can make life difficult for anyone when his serve is working And that’s exactly what makes this matchup interesting Djokovic leads their head to head 8-0, but Hurkacz has kept several of those meetings close, and his serve can make breaking him a real challenge He also opened his Shanghai campaign with a straight sets win over James Duckworth, firing 19 aces The question is whether Djokovic can get enough looks on return to take control, or whether Hurkacz turns this into a match full of tight service games and tiebreaks At 64¢, Polymarket is giving Djokovic the edge, but this is nowhere near a guaranteed win I’m leaning Djokovic because of the head to head and his level against top opponents in Beijing But Hurkacz has the weapons to make this uncomfortable One of the biggest names in tennisAn 8-0 head to headAnd a price worth watching on Polymarket Let’s see if Novak can keep the streak alive

THIS 3-LEG TENNIS COMBO HAS SOME SERIOUS NAMES I’M GOING AFTER ~1.81x ON POLYMARKET → Shanghai Rolex Masters: Ben Shelton vs Daniel Altmaier → Ben Shelton to win → Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu → Alexander Zverev to win → Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yannick Hanfmann vs Frances Tiafoe → Frances Tiafoe to win I’m not picking these because they’re my favorite players I’m looking at the matchups Shelton is the first leg I like He’s sitting around 85¢ on Polymarket and this matchup gives him exactly what he wants chances to dictate with the serve and first shot instead of getting dragged into long neutral exchanges Altmaier can make matches physical, but Shelton has a much bigger weapon to lean on when he gets ahead in the points Zverev is the safer-looking side for me He’s one of the biggest names left in Shanghai and gets Yibing Wu, who has the home crowd behind him but now faces a completely different level of opponent Zverev’s serve plus his ability to control rallies from the baseline should make it very difficult for Wu to consistently take control of the match The interesting leg is Tiafoe Frances has the shot-making to turn this matchup into chaos, but that’s also what makes him interesting at a better price than the obvious favourites Hanfmann can be dangerous on a fast hard court, so I don’t see this as a free square But Tiafoe has more ways to win points quickly and should have the higher ceiling when the pressure rises 85¢ 88¢ 70¢ Three recognizable names Three completely different matchups One combo I’m taking the spots I actually like on Polymarket instead of adding some random longshot just to chase a bigger multiplier

I’M PUTTING TOGETHER A 3-LEG TENNIS COMBO AND THIS ONE HAS SOME BIG NAMES → China Open: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic → Novak Djokovic to win → China Open: Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Stefanos Tsitsipas → Stefanos Tsitsipas to win → Japan Open: Arthur Fils vs Luca Van Assche → Arthur Fils to win I’m not picking these because they’re my favorite players I’m looking at the matchups Djokovic is the obvious headline pick He’s coming into Beijing after a tough US Open loss, but Borges has already lost to him in their only previous meeting and Djokovic still has a massive experience advantage in these best-of-three conditions Tsitsipas is the more interesting leg The market has him around 72¢, but I like the matchup because Etcheverry doesn’t have the same weapons to consistently hurt Tsitsipas on hard court And then there’s Fils He’s the biggest favorite of the three and the matchup is pretty straightforward Fils has the power to control rallies from the baseline, while Van Assche needs to make this a longer, more physical match to create problems Three recognizable names Three different matchups One combo I’m not adding a random fourth leg just to chase a bigger number Let’s see if the big names deliver