Thinker, Entrepreneur, Investor, Learner, Critique, Curious, Observer.
Pune, India
Joined January 2012
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Vikrant Darak retweeted
The most disturbing aspect of this government is the glaring absence of credible voices with expertise in finance, economics or the stock market who can explain the situation, address public concerns and restore investors’ confidence.
With lakhs of crores in market wealth being wiped out, FIIs relentlessly selling, investors losing money, the rupee weakening and controversies like ethanol adding to the uncertainty, who is accountable for explaining what is going wrong with the economy?
People deserve answers, not silence. They deserve transparency, clarity and accountability—not a complete communication vacuum when confidence is eroding and wealth is being destroyed.
A fool can say/do anything.
She is just a rubber stamp.
No marks for guessing who the real culprits are.
In 2022, FM Nirmala Sitharaman praised retail investors as the shock absorbers protecting Indian markets from external selling pressure.
In 2026, as Indian markets struggle to deliver returns and foreign investors continue withdrawing capital, the FM cites easy liquidity as one of the reasons for underperformance.
But isn't the more important question why investors are choosing to exit in the first place?
The FM continues to maintain that India's economic fundamentals remain strong.
If the fundamentals are strong, why aren't they translating into market returns? What is driving foreign investors away?
And how can investor confidence be restored without adequately addressing the reasons behind their exit?
Vikrant Darak retweeted
Speaking against @BJP4India is NOT antinational
Bjp isn't india. India isn't Bjp.
India existed before BJP. India will exist After BJP
You have to decide whether you are willing to STAND UP & SPEAK UP to protect our democracy!
Your Silence is why tyranny continues
@Cockroachisback
Many positive things are happening at the same time.
1. Heavyweight Earnings
2. Sanctions waiver
3. Mid terms approaching
4. AI trade unwinding
Brent is the only dampener.
Is Nifty ready to soar?
@Prakashplutus
Vikrant Darak retweeted
Politics is increasingly becoming a symbol of power, status and financial prosperity, while manufacturing, research and innovation are becoming increasingly challenging. Building a business requires years of hard work, patience, capital, risk-taking and perseverance. Innovation demands talent, time and relentless effort. Political influence, too, is increasingly seen as an advantage in navigating these challenges. When gaining power and status appears easier than creating wealth through production, research and innovation, it raises serious questions about the direction in which society is heading.
Vikrant Darak retweeted
The government never hesitates to tax stock market investors whenever it needs revenue. Whether investors make profits or suffer losses, taxes and charges keep flowing into government coffers.
But when investors are bleeding, markets are collapsing, and confidence is eroding, the government remains a silent spectator. Is it unreasonable for investors to expect at least a word of reassurance or a signal that their concerns matter?
Investors are not merely a source of tax revenue. They are risk-takers who commit their hard-earned savings to the economy. If the government wants investors to contribute to its revenues, it cannot afford to ignore their pain when the market is in distress.
A market cannot thrive on taxation alone; it needs confidence, trust and policy support. Wake up before investor confidence turns into lasting disillusionment.
Vikrant Darak retweeted
A tsunami of oil demand and capital outflows is not stopped by a sand dyke of derivative caps and special windows.
#RBI has asked the Street to square off non-trade-pegged dollar longs more than once before, last during @DasShaktikanta ji s tenure.
Brokers gave 24 hours to square of all positions - then - leading to massive losses.
Rupee cannot aspire to become a global currency as we have made ourselves to believe - that it can.
Yet the rupee keeps probing fresh lows near 97. These latest steps may slow the bleeding and squeeze some positions, but they do not rewrite the fundamentals.
As experience (and more than one philosopher) reminds us, you cannot prevent the storm by huddling under a tarpaulin tent; at best you merely delay getting wet not washed away.
Bright side is that if the #usdinr does reach 100: fewer calculators would be needed for anyone pricing in dollars.
The market, not the circulars, will have the final say eventually.
#dollar #rupee @_prashantnair
Breaking News !
RBI comes in big with measures to defend the Rupee !
PS: I have been saying every day since the RBI policy last week, that the Rupee problem needs to be addressed.
Here is what RBI has announced,
1. The RBI is taking the PSU oil companies’ dollar demand directly onto its own book. From Oct-12, the RBI will supply the full daily dollar requirement of IOC, HPCL & BPCL via designated banks. Basically - these large, regular dollar buyers do not have to come into the market everyday & push up demand for dollars.
2. Large USD-buying hedges will now cost banks more. For certain INR derivative trades above $2 million, banks must keep 20% of the Rupee value in cash with the RBI as a reserve. That makes these trades more expensive.
3. The amount you can trade without proving you actually have an underlying FX need has been slashed. The limit has gone from $100 million to just $5 million. This applies both to OTC derivatives & exchange-traded currency derivatives.
4. You can’t cancel a Rupee FX trade & then simply put the same trade back on again ! Rollovers at maturity are still allowed. Basically meant to curb repeated trading around the same exposure.
5. You now have to certify that you haven’t hedged the same exposure somewhere else. Bascially the RBI is trying to stop the same $ requirement being used to justify multiple hedges.
#Nifty #BankNifty #Trump #Rupee #RBI #India #Trading #Options #Modi #FinanceMinistry
Vikrant Darak retweeted
Taxation vs Growth
You can raise LTCG, STCG, STT and other taxes as much as you want—but excessive taxation cannot create prosperity.
You cannot collect meaningful taxes if investors stop making profits, stop investing, or move their capital elsewhere.
Tax investors to a reasonable extent, but don’t kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. Excessive taxation can discourage investment, drive away FIIs, weaken capital formation and ultimately hurt economic growth.
If even the common man understands this basic economic reality, why doesn’t the government?
Sadly, this is a great misfortune for the country.
Vikrant Darak retweeted
Market in "Grief & Denial" Mode: What Should You Do
(a) RBI after 8 yrs: “Calibrated tightening" (b) Forget the macros: Liquidity drove the boom; liquidity will bring the bust (c) SIPs still in denial; giving chance to exit partially. Too late once SIPs slow down.
Winter Is Coming: Prepare Wisely
a. Yesterday, after 4 years of aggressive liquidity & growth push, RBI raised the repo rate by 0.25%. That is just a trailer. By 4-2 vote, RBI changed it stance from “neutral” to “calibrated tightening” after 8 yrs.
b. Tightening means more rate hikes are coming. Loans get expensive. Real estate, infrastructure, and businesses get hurt due to higher credit costs.
c. FD rates will eventually rise to 7.5%. It means in the midst of falling rupee and weak demand, equities will have to work that much harder to attract domestic liquidity.
d. Govt has backed financial markets and Ambani-Adani-Tatas since 2014. Now the same govt will abandon them. Govt has to fight inflation, no matter what. Inflation brings people to the streets.
e. ₹ at All-Time Low: Rupee is your friend only as long as it stays below ₹100 mark. Once that barrier is crossed, the psychological and political protection is gone. Markets will address this risk if ₹ breaches 98 or 99.
f. Domestic Demand: Data shows Indian airline passenger traffic has been flat for last 15 months. Zero growth. This is urban middle class metric. For the rural class, food & fuel inflation is tightening the noose around their necks.
Equity vs. FD: What is Better?
Here is the math:
Analyst Nifty EPS Consensus (determined by JM Financial) for FY27 is:
Nifty EPS @ ₹1,235
This means: In FY27, Nifty 50 companies will collectively earn ₹1,235 of profit for every Nifty index unit.
Nifty EPS: ₹1,235
Nifty closing today: 22,231
Forward P/E:
22,231 ÷ 1,235 = 18x
Earnings Yield: E/P (Opp. of PE)
= 1,235 ÷ 22,231 = 5.6%
At present, a 10-yr govt bond pays 7.3% risk-free. With RBI rate hikes coming, this will likely go up to 8.3% in a few months.
Assuming bond yield stays at 7.3%, and does not rise, still Nifty earnings must grow by 31% to bridge the gap between 5.6% (Current Nifty Yield) and 7.3% (Current Bond Yield).
Bank of America (BofA) has estimated FY27 EPS growth @ 9%. At this EPS growth rate, it will take 3.2 years for Indian equities to come at par with risk-free govt bond yield (if no PE de-rating happens.)
In other words, going by this calculation:
For the next 3.2 years, risk-free govt bonds will give better returns than Nifty 50.
NOTE: This is mathematics with many assumptions, just to give a perspective. In reality, equity markets are driven by emotions and liquidity, not math.
Strategy: Grief & Denial
a. Lumpsum MF and individual stock investors are already in grief. But SIP investors are still in denial. They are buying every day, unaffected by the ongoing carnage.
b. The real risk is: What happens if SIP investors become impatient once FD rates rise? MTF book is already tripled in last 3 years. There is unbelievable leverage in the market.
c. To reduce your risk exposure:
1. Don’t put fresh money into equities until corporate earnings show a dramatic improvement.
2. Take out some money from equities while you can. If your loss is just 10% or 15% in some trade, cut the loss and get out.
3. Diversify into fixed income and gold.
4. Build a strong emergency fund, and never use it for equities.
5. Know your risk capacity, and don’t let FOMO rob you of your mental peace.
@arabicatrader
Vikrant Darak retweeted
Market ups and downs are inevitable. Bull markets and bear markets are an inseparable part of investing.
What is truly disappointing, however, is the government’s silence and apparent indifference towards the stock market and its investors.
When it comes to collecting revenue, the government never misses an opportunity to tax investors. But when investors suffer, lose wealth, or see their confidence eroded, there seems to be little concern.
The stock market is not merely a casino or a source of tax revenue—it is a vital pillar of capital formation, wealth creation and economic growth.
Ignoring the concerns of millions of investors today could prove costly—not just for the investing community, but for the economy and the country as a whole.
Investors deserve attention, protection and confidence—not just taxation.
Vikrant Darak retweeted
India’s Freebies Budget Is bigger than you can imagine.
It is bigger than total income tax collection of India.
Vikrant Darak retweeted
Let's make this brave journalist famous 🔥🔥
She is exposing the shamelessnes and hypocrisy of BJP leaders and Narendra Modi 💪💪
Vikrant Darak retweeted
Difficulty of Doing Business: FEMA Compliance for Small Exporters
(a) Just when AI is empowering solo entrepreneurs to export their skills, the genius Indian babu strikes (b) Nations are enabling micro-exporters with frictionless rules; India does the opposite.
How to Derail Simplicity
a. Most IAS officers have no entrepreneurial thinking or problem solving skills. However, they are world champions at creating hurdles and complexity in any system. Having never done business in their life, they make the rules for business.
b. Under the new FEMA 2026 framework, all service exporters, regardless of turnover, must submit a monthly Export Declaration Form (EDF) to their bank.
So, now all freelancers, consultants, online tutors, web designers, content creators, app developers, video editors, tech solopreneurs, and micro-startups exporting their services will have to meet the same compliance requirements as a large IT company.
c. Export proceeds (payments from foreign clients) must be obtained and settled in the government’s monitoring system within 9 months from the invoice date. If entries remain open beyond this limit, the exporter faces restrictions for future business.
d. This means: A small AI freelancer billing 2 foreign clients $250 each per month (earning $500/month) must now maintain an export register, track SAC codes, compile monthly EDF filings, and follow up with his bank to reconcile accounts.
Corrective Steps to Consider
“Magnificent 7” tech giants in the US say AI is leading to an era where one-man billion dollar companies are going to be the new normal.
The governments of US, China, European countries, Korea, and Singapore are rewriting their trade, tax, and export frameworks to eliminate administrative friction for individual creators.
India can draw inspiration, and take these two steps:
a. Create a Minimum Threshold: Exempt individual service exporters earning up to ₹50 lakhs in foreign currency from monthly EDF filings and EDPMS. These individuals already self-declare their earnings during annual income tax filing.
b. Integrate with Middlemen: Banks and digital payment aggregators (PayPal, Razorpay etc.) should automatically generate digital certificates and auto-close EDPMS entries, requiring zero paperwork from the freelancer.
ENDPIECE
The global economy hugely rewards speed, agility, and ease of doing business. It punishes bureaucratic stupidity just as ruthlessly.
@arabicatrader