Engineer & builder. Stoic in training. Mad driver, diver, cyclist. Bitcoin, physics, jazz, dogs, curiosity. Long volatility, short nonsense. E=hf โ€ข ฮฑโ‰ˆ1/137.

California, USA
Joined February 2018
The Bitcoin signal Iโ€™m watching: 50D crosses above 200D โ†’ initial golden cross. 50D subsequently crosses above 350D โ†’ stronger bull-cycle confirmation? 2019, 2020 and 2023 provide the historical comparisons. The latest signal is in, do with that what you'd like. I'm long... very, very long. A thesis to test; not a guarantee. But hey, I like where this is going๐Ÿ‘‡ @GrainofSaltSF @hillery_dan @Trollstein @JoshMandell6 @Werkman
The golden cross was back on Sept 9th. Thatโ€™s just the 50D SMA pushing through 50W SMA.
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Just to frame up what I reposted from @ColeMacro a few minutes agoโ€ฆ The debasement and inflation is taking us over the cliff. Hereโ€™s a snapshot from Charlie. If youโ€™re not long Bitcoin at this stageโ€ฆ good night nurse!
Nearly 40% cumulative inflation in a decade. Trillion-dollar deficits. Exploding national debt. Money printing. A Fed that fanned the flames. This is what happens when fiscal and monetary discipline disappear. Americans are left paying the bill.
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He only hires โ€œthe best peopleโ€โ€ฆ so the fix is complete. Heโ€™s richer than he ever was, and you? Youโ€™re paying $100 per tank of gas, $16 for a pound of beef, and $0.75 per egg. And your kids wonโ€™t be able to buy your house off you before you dieโ€ฆ You tired of winning yet?
US National Debt in March 2016: $19.3 trillion US National Debt Today: $40.4 trillion
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โ€œ..but it means picking up pennies in front of the debasement steamroller. When you truly internalize the principles of a Bitcoin standard, the focus becomes crystal clearโ€ The Bitcoin Revolution; Class of 2018.
I use long-term money-supply trends as an important factor in assessing the cost of capital we should be willing to underwrite to amplify Bitcoin. Weโ€™ve covered in depth why Amplification Ratio is the key determinant of Striveโ€™s ability to outperform Bitcoin, and why cost of capital matters less. I hope this historical framework, viewed alongside Bitcoin, helps those seeking a deeper understanding. Scarcity has consistently outperformed debasement over the past 55-plus years. Gold has compounded faster than M2 in every period shown: 9.0% vs. 6.7% since 1970, 9.5% vs. 6.3% since the GFC, and 18.3% vs. 6.5% since COVID. Bitcoin is digital gold, a superior store of value whose emergence remains in its early stages. It should outperform gold as it matures. Our thesis depends on long-term monetary debasement continuing. Our believe is the trend is unbreakable, and as the debt crisis continues to worsen, the outperformance of scarce assets will perpetually accelerate (not decelerate) relative to the dollar in CAGR terms vs historicals. If you accept that premise, as we do, the only challenge becomes building and sustaining a high Amplification Ratio without blowing up. It sounds simple, but it is extraordinarily difficult. I donโ€™t believe most investors understand nor properly value the moat Strive has built around high Bitcoin amplification with high liquidity, and I donโ€™t expect most to recognize it until Bitcoin makes sustainable new all-time highs. The consensus investor remains fixated on the cost of capital and fiat cash flows. That is understandable, but it means picking up pennies in front of the debasement steamroller. When you truly internalize the principles of a Bitcoin standard, the focus becomes crystal clear: be maximally and perpetually short dollars and long Bitcoin. $ASST $SATA $SATS
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Damn if this isnโ€™t exciting, hooraaah! LFG!!
Strive announces upsized IPO of $SATS to $700M notional, priced at $90 per share. We'll discuss the details in depth on the next @HurdleRatePod, which will be released when the IPO settles next Tuesday.
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Strive acquired 2,822 BTC over the last two days, increasing our BTC HODL by 8.6%. We now hold 35,595 BTC and the #4 spot among global publicly traded holders of BTC. In the last 9 days Strive have increased Bitcoin held by 20.8% (29,462 > 35,595). Averaging ~ 681 BTC acquired per day over the last 9 days. ~150% of the daily new supply of BTC.
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Planck Constant ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ retweeted
If you want to be a "select investor" in the $SATS IPO, visit the Fidelity brokerage platform in the link below. The Fidelity indication of interest window ends today. For additional information please visit the SATS IPO website at strive.com/sats-ipo/.
Replying to @Strive
To find out how to participate, speak to your broker or visit the Fidelity brokerage platform at digital.fidelity.com/prgw/diโ€ฆ
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Planck Constant ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ retweeted
Strive is offering $SATS through an IPO available to select investors. - 15% fixed-rate perpetual preferred stock - Cumulative dividends paid every business day - Junior to SATA INVESTOR PRESENTATION TIMESTAMPS 00:00 - Introducing SATS 01:46 - Executive Summary 18:50 - SATS Improves SATA 21:06 - Dividend and Balance Sheet Strength 27:33 - Performance and Liquidity 30:48 - Bitcoin Thesis 40:26 - Amplification and Risk $SATS $ASST $SATA
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Heโ€™s just saying the quiet part out loud now.
Strive is turning demand for digital equity ($ASST) and digital credit ($SATA) into demand for Bitcoin. Its hypergrowth shows how the capital markets are accelerating Bitcoin adoption.
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Planck Constant ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ retweeted
Replying to @ColeMacro
"SATAโ€™s $100 minimum issuance price is now a binding restriction in governing docs, formalizing the protection." --> Formalized corporate governance is good! Investors love certainty
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You think people are pissed off now? Wait until this filters down into the US economy over the next few monthsโ€ฆ Those gas station signs werenโ€™t designed to show diesel prices above $9.99. And when an egg cost one dollar each, the reality will eventually be unavoidable. Iโ€™m not a doomer, Iโ€™m a realist. These policies took months and years to enact, and the only way now is either austerity or printing; guess which way every single politician will go. The problem Trump has is that his chain-yanker Putin can send shock troops into the streets of Moscow and beat the living shit out of any protestorsโ€ฆ while here people will grow poorer and more miserable over the next 2 years, and the Republicans will finally splinter and implode under the weight of their own bullshit after becoming the Trump sycophant party. All that winning. Stack harder, itโ€™s going to get worse, much worse.
Since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +163% Sulfur: +89% Heating Oil: +80% Jet Fuel: +80% Diesel: +67% Rice: +62% Sugar: +50% Gasoline: +46% The inflationary shock continues to build.
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If youโ€™re paying attentionโ€ฆ Well then, youโ€™re having a monster week as well ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ™Œ
Strive just had a monster week ๐ŸŸ  โ€ข Bought 3,311 BTC (Oct 5โ€“9) at ~$84.5K โ€ข Stack now 32,773 BTC โ€ข BTC per share UP ~1.7% in one week, even after issuing new shares โ€ข $310M cash on hand And $SATA holders got upgrades: โ€ข 13% rate held for November, paid DAILY โ€ข $100 minimum sale price now written into the charter, so no issuing below par โ€ข Weekends now count as business days, which opens the door to 7-day dividends โ€ข Distributions expected to be return of capital (tax-deferred) They're stacking sats AND protecting the preferred. This is how you build a Bitcoin treasury. Fuck Im so Bullish on $ASST $SATA #Bitcoin
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Planck Constant ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ retweeted
Over the most recent thirty days of data, the national debt has been growing at a rate of one bitcoin per second.
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If this makes you angry, and you want to "unfollow" me? Please go ahead, no worries. Live your life your way, I really don't care. I know where the bodies are buried starting with the genocides in 1939... and I've been around this world far more than most. I am no longer governed by other's opinions of me or otherwise and have nothing to prove, nothing. Yes, this is a privilege, and I recognize it as such. So no hurt feelings, let's just go about the reality we all have invented for ourselves.
Replying to @ddale8
If you just accept that everything he says falls into one of three buckets then you no longer have to listen to anything he or his sycophants have to say or write: 1. Asshole bucket - simply put: I've got no idea what you're asking me, so I'm going to make up a bunch of bullshit to make it seem like I know something, anything, or deflect to something that has no implication to what you just asked (a.k.a "word salad"). 2. Pump my family bags - you know this one; I'm a failed entrepreneur (also, Daddy gave me millions so I can bankrupt casinos), but I'll shill any piece of garbage that will add a few dirty bucks to my own or my family's soiled coffers. 3. Putin's got my chain - my favorite; let's do everything we can to weaken democratic institutions from the inside (courts, government agencies, military, etc.), and overspend the shit out of our taxable income so that inflation drives the middle class into the ground, and the country collapses from within (quite similar to the 'spend them into oblivion' that helped to end the USSR).
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1/4 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ America's diesel shock isn't just a pump-price story. U.S. diesel hit $6.53/gallon in September 2026โ€”a new nominal record. Even at $6.20 in early October, that's 67% higher than a year ago. And the inflationary consequences may not be fully reflected in CPI and PPI yet. Source: EIA
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3/4 Every $1/gallon increase in diesel adds approximately $18,500 in annual fuel costs to a truck traveling 120,000 miles at 6.5 mpg. Multiply that across thousands of trucks. Those costs can eventually reach consumers through higher freight rates and prices for everyday goods.
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4/4 The 2008 diesel spike was higher after adjusting for inflation. But today's nominal record is still extraordinary. As the Iran war continues, sustained fuel costs risk putting more pressure on PPI, CPI, and household budgets. Who benefits from elevated energy prices? Follow the earnings and refining margins. Are you tired of winning yet? I am.
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Planck Constant ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ retweeted
How many times does this need to be explained? People buying Digital Credit want income. Theyโ€™re choosing CASH FLOW over bitcoin upside. Thatโ€™s income capital. Money that wouldnโ€™t necessarily go into Bitcoin in the first place. Offering an income product isnโ€™t an argument against self-custody. Thatโ€™s a straw man. $STRC $SATA
The digital credit pushers want you to believe #bitcoin in self custody is too hard and their IOU yield products are the smarter play. They're selling you capped upside while they use your dollars to stack the most pristine asset on the planet. Do as they do, not as they say.
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Mic drop from The Man himself. New Digital Dawn is here. Do with that what you will. I'm long, very long $ASST ... 'nough said.
Strive is in hypergrowth mode.
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