Global Macroeconomics
Joined February 2024
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Expect oil, gold and USD, US bonds to move a bit higher for a short time, until there are clarification
Trump made some very confusing comments, but this is common for him.
Opposite for stock market
Venn Global retweeted
Foreign Producers Not Picking Up Much Of The Tab
After months of elevated tariffs it’s becoming increasingly clear that foreign producers are not absorbing much of the rise in duties. The result is US companies and consumers are footing the bill.
Trump had a bit of a more softer tone than the headlines did during the weekend, implying there is the posibility of no peace in the near future if both parts oppose.
Venn Global retweeted
China escaped socialist poverty and enjoyed unprecedented growth when it implemented capitalist principles. Now private entrepreneurialism fueling the economic rise has come to a full stop, and China returns to state run economy. All state run economies in history failed badly.
Venn Global retweeted
🚨 The U.S. just auctioned off $25 billion in 30-year bonds.
And the results were bad. Really bad.
Weak demand, rising yields, and big warning signs for America’s debt future.
(a thread)
Deportation fallout: Migrant workers in hiding and living in fear youtube.com/shorts/ssFfzpYYp… via @YouTube
What if not responding to the Establishment Data of the Employment Situation until a decided deadline would result in penalties?
Deportations in the US for first half of 2025 are around 150k (ICE), same period 2024 ~ 136k.
Illegal Crossings in H1 2025 are 53k , first half of 2024 around 700k (-93%)
If the Employment Situation Reports would be released a couple of days later into the month, the numbers would be singnificantly more accurate.
Venn Global retweeted
Trump loved the jobs report from 2 months ago produced by the same woman that he fired today.
Venn Global retweeted
🚨 The U.S. quietly bought back $2B in its own long-dated debt.
Most missed it.
But this may be the most clever and under-appreciated policy move of the year.
(Save this thread)
Venn Global retweeted
There are 2 scenarios after today's data:
1. The US labor market is entering a recession
2. Something is seriously wrong with the data
The unemployment rate is rising and -258,000 jobs have seemingly disappeared from the data in 2 months.
That's more than the entire population of Scottsdale, Arizona in a single data revision.
This comes just 24 hours after the Fed said we have a "strong labor market."
Something doesn't add up.
Venn Global retweeted
Credit where it is due—this is from @atanzi who is currently in our team.
Venn Global retweeted
Imagine if someone had a crazy idea of putting Germany and the Netherlands into one currency with Italy and Greece. Wait…
The US-EU Trade deal was an overall good outcome for both parts. The winners and the losers are clear. Tarriffs went from 50 and 30 percent to 15 percent, an acceptable rate for most business sectors.
This brings in more optimism for the Canada deal, allthough Canada has been justifiably stubborn because of the few crucial sectors of the economy.
The last few major deals have proved, in a way that big tarriff headlines are a negotiation tactic for a more accepable, sustainable rate.
The movements in the foreign exchange market was just transfer of liquidity and to this moment, there is still an overeaction in almost all major currencies movements.