Manage the Expectations, Manage the Outcome

Joined February 2021
Insider buy (higher) + LT setup makes this an interresting play despite ST noise Good write-up by James below $BORR
Replying to @JamesHMackay
I feel like I need to explain that tweet. $BORR 29 premium jackups with an average age of 10 years, the youngest fleet + plus a 50% stake in 5 more. Net debt $2.3 billion, refinanced out to 2032 and 2034. $4.21 the market values each rig at about $117 million after debt. NAV of $8 to $9 equals about $155 to $165m per rig, or 55-65% of the $250 to $300m to build a new jackup. $8-9/share NAV needs average day rates $150k-$155k with 26 of 29 rigs working, compared with about $134k today, easily supported by the current strip. $10 million of value per rig adds about $0.94 per share of NAV. December 2027 Brent is at $86, a record for the contract, and the long end of the curve is calling for more supply. Modern jackup utilization is about 92%, close to the level where dayrates historically jump. 11 jackups are under construction worldwide and about 100 aging rigs could retire over the next 7 to 8 years. Idle rigs are already going back to work, with Joro, Norve and Natt newly committed. Founder Tor Olav Troim has bought 12.85 million shares worth about $57 million since August, including 9.5 million in October at an average of about $4.49. He now owns 13.1% of the company and the stock trades below his October price. Most important: January to April is generally contract award season. If Q1 2027 contracts come in at $150k or higher the market will have to re-rate $BORR Where am I wrong here? Seems like one of the best oil beta plays.
1
3
388
Bought a small starter in $BORR ... probably should size larger but dont want to kill the trade for @JamesHMackay like I did with Coal for @InvestInOnG
2
232
What are we doing guys… $SPCX
$SPCX | JPMorgan 𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 on 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗫, raises PT to $𝟱𝟬𝟬 from $𝟮𝟰𝟬 😳😳 Analyst sees sharply higher estimates but says significant execution, capital, and demand support are needed.
1
245
I wonder how much $NVDA and $MU gear Elon needs now to 2030+?
As crazy as this sounds, $1T in SpaceX revenue in 2028 is no longer impossible
289
Somebody gets it…
Replying to @ValueNotDeadYet
Essentially Air canada is cheaper today towards low end of valuation after all buybacks than it was last year. Fuel efficient modern fleet with 220, 320xlr, 737max & immigration led growth 40 million+ pop. 2028 FCF is matter of which quarter and not if.
4
623
ValueNotDeadYet retweeted
Damn they move quick
81
321
59
5,398
273,631
I thought Iran gave up 8 months ago... why are we sending more sailors? @InvestInOnG
The USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island (LHD-8) amphibious ready group, with the embarked 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), are headed to the Middle East, two U.S. officials told Fox News. The ships are expected to arrive by the end of November, adding about 10,000 sailors and Marines to the region. Fox reports about 6,000 are in the carrier strike group and about 4,200 in the MEU and Makin Island group, a typical size for such a force. The Roosevelt would be the third aircraft carrier in the Middle East, joining the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) and USS George Washington (CVN-73). Makin Island would be the second amphibious assault ship with an embarked MEU in the region, alongside USS Boxer (LHD-4) and the 11th MEU. The deployment comes as President Trump has said renewed military action against Iran remains possible after the November 3 midterm elections.
1
289
If you missed it $CRWV now +7% from lows $NVDA also up 2% from the lows 30 mins ago... Its all the same trade, just pick your Beta exposure
$CRWV - COREWEAVE SHARES FALL TO LOWEST SINCE MAY 2025, LAST DOWN 5.8%
266
✈️ $AC.TO ✈️ ➡️$5.5B MC ➡️~$5B Net Debt (YE 26 due to Capex - guessing here) ➡️Aeroplan equity at $10B valuation ($7.5B Net) I get the Capex overhang (2026-2027), but this is likely going to do numbers in 2028-2030 period Until then...
1
3
458
$AC.TO $21 today on the downgrade, makes sense on the fuel side, but LT, this should trade much higher if they get anywhere near $1B+ FCF in 2028+ Horribly timed SIB at $29 though 🤮🤮🤮
✈️$AC.TO ✈️Trades cheap bc of the massive Capex plans Yet: ➡️250M OS vs 300M plan in 2028 ➡️Aeroplan value $10B (7.5B AC) vs ~$10B AC EV If they do anywhere near $1.5B FCF in 2028+ this will likely trade higher than $22 NFA GL
2
2
501
Good time to be bearish coal $BTU
Chinese coal production fails to rebound ahead of the winter 🇨🇳🪨 Miners produced 385 million tons in September, an improvement on the previous month but still down 6.8% y/y Coal output has been falling on an annualized basis since a mine blast in April triggered safety checks
1
4
434
IMO the Alberta vote will overwhelmingly be No Note what QC did: they elected a separatist minority government but the party then said no referendum until Trump is OOO… Now is not the time to separate…it’s time for 🇨🇦 unity Wait 5 years and try again #HotTakeSunday
Wow. 43.1% of all eligible voters have already cast a ballot in Alberta's referendum. (837k in advance polls, 519k by special ballot). With 1,356,873 votes already, the total is likely to blow past the 1,763,441 ballots cast in the 2023 provincial election.
1
3
1,215
🔥
you’ll never believe what i saw on the highway today
529
ValueNotDeadYet retweeted
I’m sorry but this has me dying 😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤷🏻‍♂️ I’m Mexican and this is hilarious 😆
791
5,205
725
36,120
2,145,509
No and $ATZ.TO showed us that not all consumer spending is in trouble … $GRGD.TO
Just curious. Do Visa $V and MasterCard $MA breakout like this when you are diving into a recession?
1
3
386
This doesn’t answer the question of what the funding looks like? $CRWV
$CRWV | Cantor Fitzgerald 𝗿𝗲𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 on 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗪𝗲𝗮𝘃𝗲, maintains PT at $𝟭𝟳𝟲, 'Best Time to Enter Into a CRWV Position' Analyst sees an attractive entry point as the market misjudges CoreWeave’s ability to fund capex for strong demand.
2
2
333
🔥
Replying to @HarryStebbings
da fuck you talking about? we got so many models on our API. you want spark, we got spark. you want wonder, we got wonder. you want image, we got image.
346
Somebody is eventually going to make a run at $MDA and throw a bunch of $ into manufacturing to scale up the business
*EU SAID TO BE READY TO FAST-TRACK SATELLITE RIVAL TO SPACEX by fast-track it means 40-60 years?
1
434
✈️$AC.TO ✈️Trades cheap bc of the massive Capex plans Yet: ➡️250M OS vs 300M plan in 2028 ➡️Aeroplan value $10B (7.5B AC) vs ~$10B AC EV If they do anywhere near $1.5B FCF in 2028+ this will likely trade higher than $22 NFA GL
1
2
813