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Brier

@UseBrier

See the shape of the market, not just the price. Distribution modeling & market analytics for Polymarket. 0xe02bc8b8972b67ec1552901658a6527262ba686c

 Polymarket
usebrier.com
Joined July 2026
  • Tweets21
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  • Followers32
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Photo by Brier (@UseBrier)Photo by Brier (@UseBrier)Photo by Brier (@UseBrier)Photo by Brier (@UseBrier)Photo by Brier (@UseBrier)Photo by Brier (@UseBrier)
Find your edge. Brier is a deeply analytical market discovery tool for prediction market traders. Browse thousands of open markets, see modeling forecasts for an increasing number of categories, keep dynamic, personal notes, and more. Now live on @virtuals_io.
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We've add 4 new modeled markets to the platform, bringing the total to well over 100. Still building, market caps be damned.
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Our models have netted an average of 31% profit over the last week on Elon's tweet markets, beating most players by a significant margin. And we just expanded that to 4 other categories including Trump's Truth Social post counts. Beat the market.
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Builders build, regardless of price action. New modeling distributions coming today.
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Coming soon to @UseBrier 📈 Crypto & oil price models 🌧️ Rain, snow & hurricane markets 🏆 Sports win totals & futures 🗳️ Election forecasts More markets. Sharper odds.
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"90%" isn't a fact. It's the last price someone was willing to pay. A thin order book, a single whale, a stale market. Any of them can make the odds lie to you. Our product exists, and continues to evolve, in order to expose those false odds. On dozens of markets at time.
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We're named after the Brier score for a reason. A prediction that "felt right" means nothing. A prediction that's calibrated means everything. Brier shows you reliability diagrams. How often 70% actually happens 70% of the time. You'd be surprised. Only on @UseBrier.
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New RobinHood Tech Additions There are 12 new projects added today: PASSETS - 29k - Trade perpetual markets on tokenized stocks, real-world assets, collectibles, and more on Robinhood Chain - @TryPerpAssets PONDEX - 41k - First index coin for the PONS Launchpad on Robinhood Chain. 100% of revenue goes back to PONDEX - @pondex123 NOELCLAW - 51k - The runtime layer for agentic AI. Persistent memory, autonomous agents, and workflows that survive every session - @noelclawfun VAUTH - 55k - Autonomous agents that quark agents - @Vauthlink BENTO - 86k - The on-chain index fund layer of Robinhood Chain. Mint a box, hold the basket. Fully backed, redeemable, Chainlink-priced, 24/7 - @BentoEtf 0xZAPS - 93k - OpenZaps turns approved DeFi workflows into sealed policy capsules - @0xzaps BROW - 92k - Eyebrow watches everything your AI agent and coding tools install, and raises an eyebrow the moment something changes without your consent - @EyebrowCC BRIER - 133k - See the shape of the market, not just the price. Distribution modeling and market analytics for Polymarket - @UseBrier RJS - 150k - Turn your token into a trailer. Paste a whitepaper, document, or link and get a cinematic 9:16 reel in minutes - @RJStory_io ARENA - 142k - The first agentic stock trading arena on Robinhood Chain - @RobinArenaFun PONSTR - 254k - World's first and largest PONS treasury. Generational assets are meant to be accumulated - @ponstrategy r0b - 473k - An autonomous AI that day-trades tokenized stocks on Robinhood Chain with real money - @rob_inh00d *These are not automatic buy recommendations. We encourage you to dig into the fundamentals - team, product, traction, tokenomics, funding, and long-term potential - before making any investment decisions. For all the latest Robinhood Chain tech updates, follow us for ecosystem coverage. We bring you the latest news, new project launches, in-depth project spotlights, and the ecosystem's top movers—helping you discover and track the builders driving innovation on Robinhood Chain.
🤖 Made with AI
Image from Tech Terminal - RobinHood (@TechTerminalxRH)
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One underrated thing inside @UseBrier: You can write a thesis, then embed the actual Polymarket table and price-history chart directly into the note. The odds keep updating while your original reasoning stays there. Basically a trading journal that can expose exactly when your thesis started aging badly. Painful, but useful. 0xe02bc8b8972b67ec1552901658a6527262ba686c @virtuals_io 👀
Image from Kurobyte III (@kurobyte3)
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On some of the markets on @UseBrier you'll find this distribution modeling. It's a machine-learned modeling system that evaluates current prices vs. what it considers fair pricing and the likelihood of a given option being hit. It spots mispricing before others do.
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To get super technical, here's the breakdown 👇 Base-rate + pace projection blends the historical base rate of, in this particular example, tweets. A negative-binomial prior fit on the last 16 weekly windows, with a few counted so far in the window. Elapsed time is measured against the account's typical week-hour activity profile, so quiet overnight hours don't distort the pace. The history's week-to-week overdispersion sets the spread, so the tails are honest; before anything is observed the curve is the base rate alone.
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This isn't perfect, no system is. But it's self-learning. Named after the Brier score it optimizes, it grades every resolved market against the actual outcome and recalibrates from there. Already net profitable now. And it keeps getting better.
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We live and breathe predictions. But it can be hard to keep track of it all. That's why Brier has personal, dynamic notes. You can @ any market right into your notes with live odds, use /table to see each option, or use /plot for a live graph of the exact odds.
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Twelve months ago, prediction markets were a niche interest for a few thousand crypto-native traders and election-cycle news junkies. Today they're being called one of the fastest-growing corners of finance, and the numbers back that up. So why hasn't tooling caught up?
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We're here to change that. Soon. Coming to @RobinhoodCrypto. Read our full open letter right here: usebrier.com/open-letter
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The prediction market community on Robinhood Chain is still underserved. That changes soon. Keep your eyes peeled on @virtuals_io.
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Every prediction market has a shape. Most @Polymarket traders only see the price. Building something for the first half of that sentence.
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