A prescient post I made on January 2 of this year still holds true: “As we enter into 2024, we would do well to note that those exercising maximum agency have taken the view that history is a meat grinder: action goes in and effects come out. There are no ideologies, no sides, no institutions — just the accumulation and exercise of raw power. America is caught in a vise fashioned from the populist right and the populist left, which together respond reflexively and predictably to actions taken by those with power. In this way, the US political machinery is now almost fully programmable via information warfare. This is an impossibly cynical view and is difficult to accept, as a majority of people still believe we can use our institutions to recover from this tailspin. As pilots know, ailerons have negative effects when in a tailspin; one must use the tail rudder to regain lift. Only action and effect, taken against bad actors, can save us. Our institutions, what’s left of them, must act forcefully. Otherwise, this next year, and the future, will belong to those who dare to seize power, take action, capitalize on effects, and dismantle institutions. Optimism and institutional action must be coupled with an iron will to stop the tailspin. We must be able to think cynically and with savage imagination about what action/effect actors might do, and get ahead of it. So far, we have cumulatively failed. We must stop failing. Hope is not a strategy. Dominating one’s political out-group isn’t either. Action is a strategy. Forcing bad actors to regroup and recalibrate is the way to foul the meat grinder. We must couple institutional remedies with practical setbacks for Putin and his global allies. Presidential elections make for great TV and fun horse-race nonsense. But those who force reactions via information and kinetic warfare can overwhelm all of that in a heartbeat. We must be prepared and expect such direct action interventions. “Black swan event” chatter is picking up from Putin’s proxies, and if one occurs, it will almost certainly be because they manufactured one. Expect it. It will be an ersatz creation, designed to sow panic and discord. So, best wishes to everyone for a safe and joyous 2024. But this next year will be a struggle for survival against those willing to imagine and do what we either can not or will not do. We must all rise to that responsibility, in whatever ways we are each able. It will be difficult and maybe impossible. But we must try.”