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Q4 要季增 61%：野村說 AI 沒有放緩，但數字會先嚇你一跳
市場說 AI 放緩了、不賺錢、neocloud 快撐不住了。
野村研究說，放緩有一半是口徑問題。雲端營益率還有四成，而 9 家半導體公司的淨現金兩年翻了 10 倍。
unclestocknotes.substack.com…
The US Department of Energy announced approximately $967M in additional funding through its Grid Resilience State and Tribal Formula Grant program. The money will support infrastructure upgrades across states, territories and tribes to reduce outages and accommodate growing electricity demand.
The focus is grid reliability and resilience. For households and businesses, the practical questions are whether projects improve service and reduce long-term delivery costs. Lower electricity bills are a policy objective; outcomes depend on local project selection and execution.
Potential opportunities span grid equipment, distribution automation and engineering services: watch $ETN, $GEV, $HUBB and $PWR. These are thematic exposures, not announced contract winners.
More generation needs a grid that can deliver it. Watch local allocations, procurement schedules and equipment lead times. Funding is a start; completed projects make the difference at the socket.
Shame on you, @EmmanuelMacron You’ve failed your country.
ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent have ordered 3M+ $NVDA RTX PRO 5500 cards, worth over $35B (Reuters).
📌 Total China orders: 6M+ cards
📌 NVDA's max global output in 2027: ~3M cards
📌 NVDA told partners they may get only 5–10% of what they asked for
I see the realistic revenue is $4B–$23B a year, depending on how much actually ships and whether both governments sign off.
The card runs on GB202 (the same die as the RTX 5090) with 84GB of GDDR7. No HBM, no CoWoS. It's built for inference.
Reuters' sources say supply is short because NVDA is prioritizing TSMC capacity for Rubin in 2027. But this card doesn't need CoWoS or HBM. It's on N4 wafers, while Rubin is mainly on N3. So I think "TSMC capacity going to Rubin" is only part of the story.
I believe the real choke point is GDDR7.
~28 chips per card means ~84M chips for 3M cards. And NVDA's own Rubin CPX uses GDDR7 too, so they're fighting over the same supply.
Who benefits:
1. GDDR7 makers: Samsung, SK hynix, $MU
2. $NVDA: China isn't in guidance, so anything that ships is upside
3. China's domestic AI chips: hurt near term, helped long term. Whatever NVDA can't deliver ends up flowing to local suppliers
#NVDA #AI #Semiconductors #Memory
Bytedance、 $BABA 、騰訊向 $NVDA 下單 300 萬張 RTX PRO 5500，金額超過 350 億美元（Reuters）。
📌 中國的總訂單超過 600 萬張
📌 NVDA 2027 年全球產能最多約 300 萬張
📌 NVDA 已告訴客戶可能只能交 5–10%
我粗估實際營收落在 40～230 億美元／年，要看交貨比例和兩國政府放不放行。
這張卡用的是 GB202（跟 RTX 5090 同一顆）＋84GB GDDR7，沒有 HBM，也不用 CoWoS，主要拿來做推論。
Reuters 的消息說，產能不足是因為 2027 年台積電產能要優先給 Rubin。但這張卡不需要 CoWoS，也不用 HBM，用的是 N4 晶圓，而 Rubin 主力在 N3。所以我認為「台積電產能讓給 Rubin」只是部分原因。
大叔認為更可能卡住的是 GDDR7：一張卡大約 28 顆，300 萬張就要約 8,400 萬顆。NVDA 自家的 Rubin CPX 也用 GDDR7，兩邊搶同一批貨。
受惠順序：
1. GDDR7：Samsung、SK hynix、$MU
2. $NVDA：中國不在原本的財測裡，交多少都算額外的
3. 國產 AI 晶片：短空長多，NVDA 交不出的訂單最後會流向國產
350 億是中國推論算力有多缺的溫度計。
#NVDA #AI #半導體 #記憶體
德國總理默茨（Merz）還在談要在“創新與監管”之間找到完美平衡。黃仁勳聽完，問：
我聽說你一直想在‘創新與監管’之間找平衡。但如果一個行業連活都沒活下來，你到底要監管什麼？你首先得讓德國的 AI 產業蓬勃發展起來啊！
太老實了！你不要回答太艱深，以他智商很難理解。
「看看我們多麼安全。教堂是安全的。因為我們沒有讓他們進來。零就是零。『像波蘭一樣』意味著要勇敢。」
“我們知道聖戰士能做出什麼。我們不知道所謂的第二代或第三代難民會做什麼。好吧，其實我們知道……我們可以看到法國正在發生什麼。”
這裡沒有騷亂，沒有燃燒的建築物，也沒有警察防線
波蘭拒絕了歐盟的移民安置配額，歐盟最高法院對此做出不利裁決。波蘭毫不退讓！
在同一24小時內，法國的主要街道和商家被左翼分子、伊斯蘭主義者和入侵者焚燒和洗劫
每個國家都可以像這樣。只要做出 CHOICE
9年前的神預言！今天在法國成真！
提出左膠誤國的先知
阿拉伯聯合大公國(UAE)外交部長 2017 年特別以全英語公開警告：
- 歐洲將出現更多 “來自中東” 的激進分子
- 因為一味追求政治正確
- 你們自以為比我更了解中東？你會付出代價
#左派誤國
巴黎燃起熊熊大火，暴徒席捲法國各地：
超過50萬人走上法國街頭。抗議者和暴徒縱火焚燒歷史建築，摧毀著名雕像，洗劫了數千家商店。
在法國各大城爆發衝突後，警方遭到暴徒襲擊，寡不敵眾，被迫撤離。
這應該會給西方其他國家敲響警鐘：數百年的心血和保護成果，一日之間化為烏有。
🚨 Paris is on fire as rioters take over across France:
Over 500,000 people have taken to the streets across France. Protesters and rioters have set fire to historic buildings, destroyed famous statues, and looted thousands of stores.
Police have been seen driving away after being attacked and overwhelmed by the number of rioters as clashes broke out across every major city in France.
Let this be a warning sign for the rest of the West: Hundreds of years of work and preservation gone in one day.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
This footage is from September 2025. x.com/nickshirleyy/s…
荷姆茲海峽供應風險再升高。伊朗革命衛隊稱，兩艘各載約200萬桶原油的油輪週日觸雷起火，消息尚未獲獨立證實。Kpler數據顯示，原油通行量從10/8約2,080萬桶降至10/11的290萬桶，實際運輸受阻比攻擊消息本身更值得盯。
Brent週五收109.86美元、漲3.7%，WTI收101.41美元、漲3.5%。IEA與美國釋儲安排、俄油關稅豁免提供部分緩衝，週一盤前油價回落約1%，但無法直接解決海灣航道問題。
$XOM、 $CVX、 $COP 有上游油價曝險； $FRO、 $DHT、 $STNG 可能受惠於繞航與運價，但也承擔船舶安全、保險及營運成本。航空、化工與依賴海灣原油的亞洲煉油商則面臨壓力。
釋儲可以救急，航道恢復才有助穩定供應。接下來盯停火斡旋、實際通行量與10/21 EIA庫存；油價推升通膨，也在壓縮消費者荷包。局勢若降溫，追高的人同樣得小心。
Hormuz supply risks intensified. Iran’s IRGC claimed two tankers, each carrying roughly 2M barrels, struck mines Sunday; this remains independently unconfirmed. Kpler data showed crude transit falling from about 20.8M barrels on Oct. 8 to 2.9M on Oct. 11. Actual shipping disruption matters more than attack headlines alone.
Brent settled Friday at $109.86, up 3.7%; WTI reached $101.41, up 3.5%. IEA/US reserve measures and Russian-oil tariff relief offered partial offsets, with oil easing roughly 1% premarket Monday. They do not directly resolve Gulf shipping constraints.
$XOM, $CVX and $COP have upstream price exposure. $FRO, $DHT and $STNG may benefit from rerouting and freight rates, alongside vessel-security, insurance and operating risks. Airlines, chemicals and Gulf-dependent Asian refiners face cost pressure.
Reserve releases buy time; reopening shipping routes helps restore supply. Watch ceasefire mediation, actual transit volumes and Oct. 21 EIA inventories. Higher oil squeezes household budgets and complicates inflation. De-escalation can also punish late buyers.
i see this is a very good dive for $ONDS
THE $ONDS OFFICIAL DEEP-DIVE EPISODE JUST DROPPED
What I think people are missing with Ondas is that management has spent last 18 months buying its way towards becoming an emerging defense prime spanning counter drone systems, long endurance surveillance, precision strike, ground robotics, manufacturing and the software connecting everything together.
That creates a massive opportunity for Ondas but it also makes the stock so difficult to own in 2026 because so much of that growth was acquired and financed through share dilution meaning management now has to prove these businesses can grow organically and become more valuable together than they were separately.
Unclestocknotes retweeted
【失竊案 😱】巴西聖保羅瓜魯柳斯國際機場（São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport）發生嚴重高科技貨品失竊疑案。當地知名硬體代理經銷商 Oderço 證實，一批裝載於兩個大型卡板上的 ZOTAC GeForce RTX 5090 旗艦級顯示卡，在運抵機場後不翼而飛。經銷商估算，該批失竊貨品的採購成本高達 250 萬巴西雷亞爾（折合約 47 萬美元 / 港幣約 365 萬元 / 新台幣約 1,500 萬元），目前官方仍未掌握具體貨物去向。
據《VideoCardZ》報導，貨主為巴西經銷商 Oderço，其負責人 Oderço Matos 於 10 月 16 日正式發布影片聲明對外公開事件。Matos 指出，該公司營運至今已有 38 年歷史，並自 2008 年起長期從事電腦硬體進口業務，數十年來從未發生過進口貨品失竊事件。
videocardz.com/newz/two-pall…
Matos 表示，貨物抵達機場後隨即失去蹤影，公司雖多次向機場營運單位追查相關貨物的物流動向與交接細節，卻始終未獲任何合理解釋與正面回應。他更質疑，主管當局無法提供記錄貨物移動過程的閉路電視（CCTV）監控畫面，在求助無門且欠缺透明度的情況下，最終決定將整件事公諸於世，並直言：「兩個大型卡板的貨物，絕對不可能在國際機場內自行憑空消失。」
目前，瓜魯柳斯國際機場營運方尚未對巴西當地媒體的查詢作出回應，巴西聯邦警察（Federal Police）與聯邦稅務局（Federal Revenue Service）亦暫未正式發布公開調查通報。經銷商方面目前尚未公開貨物的確切到港日期與詳細貨運追蹤提單號碼，官方亦未將此案正式定性為內部盜竊抑或物流走私。
ASML 艾司摩爾 2026 年第三季財報分析
$ASML
第三季營收 €116.6 億、毛利率 57.5%，雙雙創下紀錄。
但這份財報我們應該注意資產負債表：非流動合約負債單季暴增 €57 億，客戶用足以讓人感到痛的預付款，把訂單一路排到 2028 年，還有人想先卡位 2029、2030。
管理層也承認，2027、2028 年的產能滿足不了需求。
這代表 ASML 未來兩年的天花板，已經從客戶要多少，變成自己做得出多少。
問題是好消息有多少已經算進股價裡？
這篇把數字拆開來看。
unclestocknotes.substack.com…
Microsoft signed a 20-year agreement with $NI for roughly 1,100MW of new generation plus 600MW of battery storage for its Indiana data-center campus, with service expected from 2028. Microsoft will fund the generation and transmission required to serve its load.
While markets question AI capex returns, Microsoft continues securing power years ahead. That supports the durability of infrastructure plans, although profitability depends on cost allocation and contract economics. NiSource estimates approximately $1.75B in total savings for NIPSCO electric customers.
$NI benefits directly. Broader generation and grid investment also puts $GEV, $NEE and on-site power provider $BE on the watchlist not as confirmed suppliers to this agreement.
Ben Horowitz says $AMZN CEO told him AI compute is sold out “beyond 2028” as demand continues to outpace available capacity.
Ben Horowitz says $AMZN CEO told him AI compute is sold out “beyond 2028” as demand continues to outpace available capacity.
That tells you how much of AI buildout now depends on getting enough power, cooling and data centers online rather than just securing more $NVDA or $AMD GPUs.
It’s also why I think drawdowns in $NBIS, $IREN and $CRWV are overdone because new capacity could find demand quickly while existing GPUs keep generating revenue longer than market expects.