Dedicated to Analysis of Data to help forecast outcomes in the Russo-Ukraine war.

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Joined February 2025
Website Update. (ukrainevictorydata.org) The following Items are Complete and will be expanded over time: - Articles - Data Sources and Methods (Structure may change) - Information Sources The following Items have an initial version of data and charts for 52 week rolling data (R52) - Area and Occupation - Losses and Area The following items will be changed to add 52 week rolling data. - Remaining Equipment - (All Data Complete) - Required Production - (All Data Complete)
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For the fourth time in 2026 Russia lost territory in Ukraine on a weekly basis.
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There has been news but no official confirmation of Ukraine's gains in the Lyman direction by the MoD of Ukraine or DeepStateMap.Live. My updates will continue to reflect what is posted at DeepStateMap.Live.
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From 31 July 2026 to 28 August 2026 (4 weeks) Russia gained 1 sq km of Ukrainian territory and lost: - 37,630 personnel (casualties) - 76 Tanks - 181 Armored Combat Vehicles - 1,704 Artillery Systems
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It looks like Russia cannot take 50% of Ukraine in 11.42 years, because it will take at least 134.66 years to produce the required 134,665 artillery systems. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/requiโ€ฆ
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It looks like Russia cannot take 50% of Ukraine in 11.42 years, because it will take at least 58.62 years to produce the required 58,624 armored combat vehicles. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/requiโ€ฆ
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It looks like Russia cannot take 50% of Ukraine in 11.42 years, because it will take at least 49.6 years to produce the required 29,761 tanks. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/requiโ€ฆ
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For Russia to go from 19.38% to 50% occupation of Ukraine, it looks like it will take Russia at least 134.66 years to produce the required 134,665 Artillery systems. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/requiโ€ฆ
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For Russia to go from 19.38% to 50% occupation of Ukraine, it looks like it will take Russia at least 58.62 years to produce the required 58,624 Armored Combat Vehicles. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/requiโ€ฆ
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For Russia to go from 19.38% to 50% occupation of Ukraine, it looks like it will take Russia at least 49.6 years to produce the required 29,761 tanks. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/requiโ€ฆ
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For Russia to go from 19.38% to 50% occupation of Ukraine, it looks like Russia will need at least: - 29,761 more Tanks - 58,624 more Armored Combat Vehicles - 134,665 more Artillery Systems Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/requiโ€ฆ
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For Russia to go from 19.38% to 50% occupation of Ukraine, it looks like Russia will have additional: - Tank losses of 31,159 to 93,441 - Armored Combat Vehicle losses of 63,896 to 164,245 - Artillery losses of 123,425 to 1,334,508 Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/requiโ€ฆ
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For Russia to go from 19.38% to 50% occupation of Ukraine, it looks like Russia will have between 3.76 million and 32.38 million additional casualties. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/requiโ€ฆ
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Based on production and burn rate of Tanks, Armored Combat Vehicles, and Artillery, it looks like Russia will take no more than 22.46% of Ukraine. With zero equipment reserves & relying only on production after 21-Oct-2027. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/losseโ€ฆ
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Based on production and burn rate of Artillery, Russia started having a deficit of modern artillery from 04-Feb-2026 onwards. Most artillery in service in the Russian Army are obsolete. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/remaiโ€ฆ
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Based on production and burn rate of Armored Combat Vehicles, it looks like Russia will run out of these Vehicles in 419 - 1840 days, between 20-Oct-2027 & 10-Sep-2031, relying only on production with no reserves afterwards. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/remaiโ€ฆ
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Based on production and burn rate of Tanks, it looks like Russia will run out of Tanks in 240 - 905 days, between 24-Apr-2027 & 18-Feb-2029, relying only on production with no reserves afterwards. Forecast for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/remaiโ€ฆ
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It looks like Russia's Progress has changed from - 94.92 sq km per day on 05-Jan-2024 - to 44.35 sq km per day on 28-Aug-2026. Over the last 52 weeks Russia's progress has been 6.31 sq km per day. Estimate for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/areaoโ€ฆ Graph for 28-Aug-2026 - ukrainevictorydata.org/blog/โ€ฆ
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It looks like it will take Russia between 11.42 and 80.28 years to capture 50% of Ukraine. Russia holds 19.38% as at 28-Aug-2026 ukrainevictorydata.org/areaoโ€ฆ
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