Replying to @ChrisNanoSports
I was higher on Caleb coming out of school. Maybe Drake Maye will never make that throw, but he doesn't need to.
Top 10 arm strength is enough when his ball placement & pocket presence are already tops in the league.
@RealAlexBarth @ezlazar @pfwpaul @ByAlFrancisco @Fred_Kirsch
Grain put a date on it: Strategy above 1.5 million #Bitcoin by Dec 31, 2027. Over or under? Give me your number and your reasoning below.
📺Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/2tL3uIrlIks
NEW: @GrainOfSaltSF is on the record. Strategy $MSTR above 1.5 million #Bitcoin by December 31, 2027.
📌Strive $SATS at 15%: unprecedented fixed rate
📌The worst bond chart in history
📌Bitcoin's 30% CAGR can send Strive $ASST to 100,000 BTC in 2027.
Watch ⚡️
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Intro
0:26 Why $SATS is unprecedented
1:23 Fixed 15% vs $SATA's floating rate
1:51 A junior product built for junk bond buyers
4:08 Bond math: a 30% effective yield at $50
6:15 Raising $500 million on $SATS
6:43 Why $SATA won't sell below $100
8:52 Paid daily, cumulative if missed
10:47 Where will $SATS trade?
12:59 Prefs become a curve
13:52 $MSTR vs $ASST amplification
15:39 Net leverage vs amplification
20:25 Amplification is bond math
22:54 Total return beats yield
24:30 Can Strive do this forever?
25:44 The 15% hurdle for new entrants
26:52 Buying $SATS at $80
28:21 Pull to par for perpetual prefs
30:09 Strive's $500 million buyback fund
32:47 Strategy's 2 cash reserves
34:59 The death spiral that never came
37:33 Back to the 1970s rate shock
38:55 The worst chart in history
42:17 18% mortgages and the 1981 peak
46:03 A US Treasury that fell 18% in 1 year
48:55 Backed by Bitcoin, not a debasing dollar
50:51 The debasement hurdle
53:30 Should Saylor slow the common ATM?
57:02 Nobody catches Strategy
57:55 Strive's common ATM plan
58:46 What happens if Bitcoin doubles
1:01:25 Tyler vs Grain: issuing at $80
1:05:18 The levers now work both ways
1:06:29 New terms every 3 to 6 months
1:12:01 Outro
Replying to @T_Berosucci
When the UST 10-year was priced at the same rate as Strive's $SATS, we entered a 40-year bond bull market.
Time for the start of the 40-year Digital Credit bull market. 🔥
NEW: @BritishHodl bought $MSTR the day after Saylor’s first #Bitcoin press release in 2020. He’s still holding his $340K target — and says the next big bid comes from people who don’t want BTC at all.
📌$150 trillion now has access to BTC
📌Why $126K was mid-cycle, not the top
📌Selling BTC to people who don’t want it
Watch ⚡️
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Intro
0:31 Why digital credit needs zero education
1:52 $15 billion and we haven't started
2:56 Will Saylor keep hitting the common ATM?
4:25 Why $126K was a mid-cycle top
5:19 Common ATM vs preferred ATM
6:32 Hammer STRC at par
7:15 The preferred flywheel
7:57 Can the pref market handle the demand?
9:37 What pension funds need to buy in
11:34 The 2024 vs 2026 treasury model
12:12 "How you gonna pump my bags?"
14:28 Total returns over Bitcoin per share
16:31 The man who orange-pilled BlackRock
17:19 The day everything changed
18:35 Everyone works for you now
19:38 In-kind conversions down to $1 million
20:25 Borrowing against IBIT at central bank plus 1
21:59 $140 million from self-custody to IBIT
23:18 IBIT started with 1 employee
24:39 2% net redemptions through a 50% drawdown
25:47 Is STRF the crown jewel?
27:08 The dark horse in Strategy's capital stack
28:40 Running down the preferred curve
30:34 Strategy's real cost of capital
31:08 Daily dividends and 24/7 trading
32:16 Retiring $10 billion of common into a new pref
34:39 What it would do to short sellers
36:26 Why Saylor ran through $42 billion so fast
37:38 Can anyone catch Strategy?
39:36 Using STRC money to buy back MSTR
42:12 Is Strategy overpaying for Bitcoin?
44:00 The melting ice cube
47:11 Cash-secured puts and Metaplanet
48:20 Managing cash vs the Bitcoin stack
49:30 From $1.8 billion to 850,000 Bitcoin
51:58 Lightning round: MSTR or ASST?
53:29 Still holding $340K
54:24 Nominal GDP vs rates
55:23 The free digital credit course







