Morgan Stanley is the latest sell-side bank to raise its copper price forecasts, citing persistent long-term deficits and capex failing to translate into higher volumes. Its new long-term price (i.e. 2030 onwards) is now up 15% to $5.73/lb. They warn that even at these new estimates, incentive prices may still not be high enough to support development of several brownfield and greenfield projects. They cite a whirlwind of escalating cost headwinds, such as a sulphur squeeze, diesel export bans, grade declines, royalty changes, a super El Niño and strategic stockpiling, all driving further cost pressures. We think that, given all these factors, the copper price should be even higher… So which will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back? @MgnStnlyIdeas

Copper mine supply remains under pressure ⚠️⛏️ * Chile Copper Production Sinks to Lowest in More Than 15 Years * Codelco suspends operations after worker dies in accident at Radomiro Tomic mine (250,000+t Cu production) * World's largest copper mine: Supervisors at BHP Escondida mine in Chile reject offer, paving way for strike * Shares in First Quantum Minerals plunged after a Panamanian government commission recommended the closure of the company's giant copper mine * Potential new strike at Antofagasta's Centinela mine (240,000+t Cu) * Copper Mine output fell 1.1% year over year in the first half of 2026 * Antofagasta reported that adverse weather conditions at the ports caused delays in end-of-period shipments from the Centinela and Los Pelambres mines * Chile’s copper output falls 12.8% in August hit by weather conditions and ore grades * Chilean government to cut 2026 copper production forecasts by up to 7% * UBS now forecasts the copper deficit to reach 379,000 tonnes next year, a 73% increase on its expected deficit of 219,000 tonnes in 2026