Bitcoin ETF flows are NOT a leading indicator. I’ve said this for a long time, but now we finally have enough data to see it clearly. Look at BlackRock’s IBIT: 🟢 Huge cluster of inflows at the cycle TOP 🔴 Huge cluster of outflows at the cycle BOTTOM That’s not forecasting price, that’s reacting to price. I think of ETF flows more like a tradfi Fear & Greed Index. They tell you how mainstream investors are feeling right now, not so much where Bitcoin is going next. So when you see people on here getting excited because ETF inflows are surging and using that as evidence BTC must go higher... Remember this chart.

Hey don't worry, the U.S is only $40 trillion in debt. 🟠#Bitcoin

The Bitcoin 1-year moving average (or the 50WMA / 52WMA, depending on who's posting) Back when I was building new metrics and comparing notes with people like David Puell and Murad, we often returned to the same line for Bitcoin: the 1-year moving average. I've always treated it as Bitcoin's bull / bear pivot, and I think I was one of the first to identify and talk about it in those terms: Break above the 1-year MA: bull market. Break below the 1-year MA: bear market. With the brief exception of the covid crash, that has held true across Bitcoin's entire 17-year history, as the chart shows. But when I look at the timeline now, I see the same idea, lightly repackaged as the 50-week or 52-week MA, being talked about in terms like "It's over for bears" "Up only" "Teleport incoming" once we break above it. It may well hold true again. But when this many people are positioned for the same outcome at the same level, fakeouts and wobbles around the 1-year MA become far more likely, not less. It's very possible we break above it, drop back below it at some point, and only then see the eventual uptrend continuation. That's alpha decay. Every signal in this market weakens as it gets crowded, and I do wonder if the 1-year MA / 50WMA / 52WMA is getting there. So just be careful and don't assume price HAS to mega trend upwards and not look back once we break above the 1-year MA (50WMA / 52WMA). It's just a moving average after all. Hope that's helpful.

Bitcoin Power Law chart. BTC just teleported off the Power Law Floor price. The mathematical meme lives on!