True Trader

Where exactly does the snap fire? For the large-extension cohort, when 30% retrace trips, the price is still about half a daily range from prior close. Median ATR% at the snap bar: 50%. Plenty of room left for the move to keep mean-reverting after the trigger.

Finding 5: behavior varies enormously by name. Sticky (close-retrace 21–28%): AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, CRM Reverters (56–97%): MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, META, NKE AMZN/GOOG run ~2x harder than peers. MSFT median close-retrace: 97%. Symbol selection isn't a tweak — it's the model.

Finding 4: once a peak is set, the snap fires fast. Median 2 minutes from peak to a 30% retrace. p75 = 11 minutes. The exhaustion bar IS the signal. Wait 30 minutes after the peak and the move is mostly done.

Finding 3: peaks aren't where folklore says. 50% peak in the first 90 minutes — overnight pre-positioning hitting the open. 34% peak in the last 2 hours — the "hype into close" meme. Only 15% midday. The hype-into-close cliché is real. It's just not the only mode.

Finding 1: the snap is the rule, not the exception. 85% of pre-earnings extensions retrace ≥30% from peak before close. Even a 60% retrace threshold fires in 74% of events. Only ~15% of moves run into the AMC report without unwinding.

It's earnings season so we pulled 96 mega-cap AMC earnings days over 2 years and asked one question: When a name with sector weight extends during RTH before reporting after the close — how far does it run before the snap? n=111 directional moves. 17 sector leaders. The shape is consistent. 🧵

So often our members wait YEARS to write a review. We are proud of the average membership tenure of our reviewers. Very few share their thoughts until they are well qualified to provide a review. Thank you Teja! It's been amazing watching you grow as a trader.

Just one of many "premium" services provided for members every day at no additional cost. News filtering and a morning trade plan are some of the most minor services provided for ~$5/day.

Most traders chase setups before building a real foundation. But mastery is a pyramid—each level builds on the last. After working with over 8000 traders, here’s the Trader’s Hierarchy of Needs (thread) 👇

🔴 We're LIVE to go over the game plan for the day! Join us now 💪 Tune in here: youtube.com/watch?v=iy-GFxUl…

Live Stream Performance Recap for Feb 26, 2025 Trading Times: 9:30a - 10:30a ET Trades: 16 Longs: 11 Shorts: 9 Win %: 56.3 ROCE %: +2.63% Profit Factor: 1.651 Expectancy: 110.81

What kind of call outs do we have? Base hits. We took every trade we've ever taken on our live stream and applied it to a sim account. Resetting it at 100k each year. This is what clean consistent growth looks like. Not bad for 1 hour per day. Big props to our team of pros. 👏👏

$AMZN $GOOG

Slow morning but that was to be expected. Another base hit for our 25k account. Happy 4th! See you all Friday morning.

Jun 27, 2024 Livestream Trading Results. Three pros participated. Done by 11am. 👏 GJ TEAM.

$WOOF and $CHWY blowing up on a guessing game. ROFL!

👀 $AMD long from the Morning Wire. Published at 9:15am. Beauty.

Member shoutout to Kareeb. No better feeling than seeing someone who's worked so hard finding success and making mature trading decisions. 👏👏👏

(emphasis ours) Trading takes time. Wisdom must be earned and once you understand the way, things get so much better. Big congrats to this member who joined us back in Oct 2023. His progress has been made in leaps and bounds.