@TrueSystem2

System2 powers data-driven decisions for investors and others. Check us out at https://xitter.cf/t.co/VfOsn8x8TV.

 NY | SF | Denver | London
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Joined February 2021
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47Media
Just in time for the Return of the Repo Man bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The Repo Man Returns as More Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments

Pandemic relief measures shielded many people from repossession, but that’s changing as interest rates and auto prices soar.

bloomberg.com
Adem Tumerkan@RadicalAdem20 Apr 2023
*Via $ALLY, used car prices (3-year old vehicles) are expected to continue declining in 2023 This will only amplify neg. equity in car owners - this is unfavorable (esp those locked in 6-7yr terms) Many depend on trade-ins + new loans to roll over How much further can this go?
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Weird. The Fitch Floorplan Monthly Payment Rate index is really high, which is usually an indication of strength . . . pandemic data onwards looks weird, generally. Maybe MPR is so high because issuance is low?
Car Dealership Guy
@GuyDealership18 Apr 2023
Past 10 days have been wild: — Capital One shut off all dealer floorplans (aka inventory lines of credit) — USA Auto Sales shut down 39 dealerships after losing its Ally floor plan — Wells fargo laid-off all its junior Auto loan underwriters and capped future loans Insanity.
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Probably nothing
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Delayed pain for big banks? Deposits flee for better yield, which means banks to borrow capital from Poppa Fed in order to stay "capitalized" (h/t @thefintechfund @twifintech
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A little dive into "peak oil" & the rate/pace of EV adoption (plus some of the implications for other commodities involved). It's once again not clear we've thought it all the way through. Plus, peak employment may be bad in the way that peak oil is bad. @Econimica system2randomwalk.substack.c…
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Full link here (and thread to follow). Also, I included a special edition of good reads focused on the Office real estate market, or the lack thereof 😬: system2randomwalk.substack.c…
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we must put an end to the War on Breakfast.
Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈
@JosephPolitano14 Feb 2023
Egg inflation is so high that I have to increase the Y-axis every time I make this chart—prices are up more than 70% over the last year!
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Is the era of flex office finally coming? @tryramp data shows that WeWork is capturing a larger share of company spend
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An addendum courtesy of @scienceisstrat1: the subsidies to unsustainable-energy-that-will-hopefully-one-day-be-sustainable-energy are enormous and growing! xitter.cf/scienceisstrat1/status…
Science Is Strategic
@scienceisstrat116 Feb 2023
The game has been changed 🚨 ✅ The IRA provides an unprecedented level of government support for the energy transition ✅ Investment in clean energy is going to explode Cc: @Noahpinion @JesseJenkins @dwallacewells @NickKristof
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...and the full post at the link. It's not too long, I promise, and it's un-gated! system2randomwalk.substack.c…
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This week's Chart(s) of the Week and Great Wall of Text. --There's one group of workers that's still missing (and the opportunity to fill the gap is enormous --Banks pay for their greed --The super bowl has an important lesson for what clean tech can learn from crypto. /n
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This is as extraordinary as it is unsustainable. WileCoyote looks down eventually...he always does. h/t @dailychartbook
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First domino to fall? RXR is giving 10% of its CRE to its lenders because, in the Chairman's words, the assets are outdated like Kodak and there's nothing that can be done to salvage them. therealdeal.com/2023/02/02/r…
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Pretty good indicator that the labor market is loosening up and leverage is shifting in favor of employers
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All, in all, not too shabby, but there are embedded polls, so feel free to tell me how dumb I am
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It's year-end review time, so I took a look at all the things I've said, the big themes I noticed, and the predictions I made . . . and humbly stand before myself in judgement of . . . myself. system2randomwalk.substack.c…
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lol. why is stationary so expensive? is it because no one buys stationary anymore? (or maybe they do? I have no idea).
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That purple line--the ~9% drop in oil consumption during the GFC--is presumably part of the bear case on oil. It's also interesting to see that consumption is only up 1.8% on the year (although I guess this is as of May, i.e. 20 weeks from Jan 22?)
Liz Ann Sonders
@LizAnnSonders20 Oct 2022
Typically, crude oil consumption falls during recessions (most extreme case was COVID-induced drop); hasn't been case thus far as consumption is up 1.75% throughout year, but on other hand, pattern is following those seen in prior downturns ⁦@DataArbor⁩ ⁦@Bloomberg⁩
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"too much money" goods inflation is long gone. this is "too few workers" wage inflation, and unlike the former, there is no easy fix. . .
Liz Ann Sonders
@LizAnnSonders23 Dec 2022
Within U.S. GDP, services consumption (blue) has been outpacing goods consumption (orange) for six straight quarters
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Eyeball test says services pretty consistently added 30-40bps (whereas goods inflation fluctuated a bit more). That's the "labor shortage" component of inflation. I wonder which services in particular contributed the most (if any).
Kathy Jones@KathyJones23 Dec 2022
Not sure why the bond market isn't pleased with the inflation data. Trend is cooling. It is led by durable goods but rise in services is slowing.
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