24 years, ex floor. Love J Dalton. Nothing should be construed as investment advice!
London
Joined May 2022
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Every undisciplined click is a quiet admission- I’d rather hurt my future than confront myself today. BT Sep 2026
Three-day balance creates a compression. Today's data release was the trigger for an out sized downward move. Look at where today's features were created. They often coincide with a prior MGI area of interest.
I have highlighted some of these areas that I would normally be looking at in yellow and then today's features in Fuschia.
I try not to think about trading in terms of price. More about the MGI. This is a key feature among elite traders - recognizing key patterns that translate into repeatable setups and not. This trait also allows you to transfer your setups across products. #tradelikeapro #ES_F $SPY
The Balanced Trader retweeted
#ES_F Recap
Reclaiming 7747 (UT1) and building value above it was a sign of strength, achieved overnight. This was followed by upside continuation post-NFP, clearing all upside targets toward 7794 (FUT).
Failure to sustain above 7794 led to two-sided trade in RTH. Note how we basically spent the RTH session filling the poor NFP structure.
The Daily and Weekly are balanced, while the Monthly remains in one-time framing higher, the same conditions we finished last week with. Hagw!
#ES_F
Daily Plan | October 2
Price exploration below Wednesday’s range and the MA50 found responsive buyers today, ultimately resulting in a close back within the spike area. I’ll continue to use this spike area to gauge the state of the auction.
Looking at the short-term composite profile on the far right, three distributions stand out. The lower distribution comes from today’s morning session. The middle distribution is where value was built on Tuesday and during today’s afternoon session. The upper distribution is where value was established on Monday and Wednesday.
A return into the upper distribution by reclaiming 7747 would be a sign of strength, while a return into the lower distribution, with 7709 being the key level to break, would maintain downside pressure.
Smashlevel: 7709
Another tip is that you don't have to be greedy. If the ATR is 80 points, you should be happy with half. That's a good day, a really good day. Learning to take the easy money is also a skill.
Seeing this push lower. We'll pull back into Confluence, VWAP and overnight low, prior low. This was a good opportunity.
I think this trade was more a retest of the overnight lows and prior lows than VWAP. But the furu in me gotta give it a recognizable name. VWAP RESISTANCE
Just look like another continuation day, series of rotational lower lows. The open rejection of that tail high and the SETL RTH close yesterday into the lows on the bell. These are all good clues as to market intentions. Having a good idea of the day's range or a metric that gives you an expectation of the day's volatility helps you hold the trade a little bit longer. #ES_F #MARKETPROFILE #AUCTIONTHEORY
Please read, your future self will thank you.
Traders don’t struggle with knowledge , they struggle with state.
You already know what you should be doing. The problem is staying neutral, observant, and disciplined long enough to take advantage of market behaviour.
Eventually the pain teaches you: the sting of a bruised ego is nothing compared to the pain of failing at the thing you’ve dedicated your life to.
The only way forward is to trade as if your future self depends on today’s actions , because it does.
When the cost of failing your future self becomes greater than the discomfort of short term discipline failure, you stop fighting yourself and start becoming a trader.
Please think!
This trade LBF. didn’t work out (last runner came back for a scratch)— but the process was solid. There was a plan, a measured expectation, and a clear acknowledgement that the 21/28 area in #ES_F could cause trouble.
That’s what managing expectations looks like when you respect the open and read the market is saying in real time. This is what I want the people I care about to understand:
-You don’t need to swing for the rafters.
-You don’t need to trade every setup.
-You just need to trade the structures you know work , and take it on the chin when they don’t.
-You can do this. But if you keep repeating the same mistakes, failure becomes the easiest outcome in the world. #tradelikeapro
If you're going to read this, read it properly. You will see that I have a very solid expectation as to where the market will turn the barriers it faces. There is no hope except for the trade itself once initiated. I'm not forcing my view on the market. I'm merely observing its behavior and reacting to it.
2 early opportunities early off ht open in #NQ_F could of gone either way. But on balance downside was a stronger argument given the LL trading patterns and MACRO env.
ETH session gave us a clear signal in #ES_F Here's a look at the market profile and the candles. Can you identify the patterns?What can you learn that you could take into the next session? It's always worth looking at both charts, slightly higher time frame, more structural profile charts and the candlesticks to see what you can decipher.
The Balanced Trader retweeted
I think the biggest reason most fail at retail trading is pain avoidance. Adding to losers, staying in a trade too long that is going no where. Taking profits too early because you spent 30 minutes red and now are green (sweet baby jesus trade.)
General rule for me in a trade is if it doesn't quickly move in the direction I'm expecting I get out. I'll flatten before my stop loss many more times than my stop loss getting hit. My stop loss is there for the "oh shit" moments.
Closing a losing trade you stop worrying about the trade and open yourself up for the next set up. Heck, I may get right back in the trade.
Transaction costs are minimal these days. When I first got into trading in the 90s... I remember the excitement when E-Trade dropped commissions to 9.95/side. lol.
The Balanced Trader retweeted
We learn from @LindaRaschke and her book Trading Sardines what it takes to succeed as a trader at the level of a Market Wizard. It's not learning the next pattern or indicator; it's mastering a process of mastery: traderfeed.blogspot.com/2026…
Clean cut chances worth taking today. Always worth doing a trading review at the end of the day. What did you miss? What did you trade well? And what did you trade badly? Go into details. Be objective. Leave the way wishy-washy stuff out. Even if you don't write things out it's worth having a look
