I design hybrid DCA-Income strategies for crypto & stock ETFs. No guessing. No timing tops/bottoms. No Discord, no Telegram, no courses. I'll not DM you first.
Planet Earth
Joined December 2015
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$IBIT just closed 2 Fridays in a row above the 50-week SMA.
🌟 1st Friday (Sep 18): +3.1% above
🌟 2nd Friday (Sep 25): +7.5% above
The only other time that happened in $IBIT history, it stayed above for 46 weeks (315 days) before the first weekly close back below on Nov 14, 2025.
Even though the 50-week MA confirmed the macro bull trend, the journey was incredibly volatile. Trend-followers had to stomach five major pullbacks before the ATH was reached:
📌 Mid-January 2025: -13.3% (Peak $58.45 ➔ Trough $50.69)
📌 Late Jan to April 2025: -29.6% (Peak $61.08 ➔ Trough $42.98) (A massive shakeout!)
📌 June 2025: -11.1% (Peak $63.70 ➔ Trough $56.62)
📌 Mid-July 2025: -8.0% (Peak $69.46 ➔ Trough $63.93)
📌 Mid-August 2025: -12.3% (Peak $69.89 ➔ Trough $61.31)
Takeaway: The 50-week MA kept you in the trade for the +31% macro gain, but you had to endure a brutal ~30% drawdown along the way to get there.
So, what's a better plan? In my opinion, this...
If $IBIT closes above the 50W SMA this Friday by at least 2%, I will divide the final 1/3 of my capital into 4 parts, deploying 25% each Monday over 4 weeks. However, if at any point during those 4 weeks $IBIT closes below the 50W SMA on a daily basis, I will pause further deployments and re-evaluate the macro trend.
NFA. DYOR.
What about $MSTR? nitter.cf/TraderJane8/status/209…
#BTC #Bitcoin #IBIT #MSTR #Strategy
Juicy $MSTR Facts:
✅ Previously, when $MSTR closed 2 weeks in a row above the 50-week SMA, it stayed on for 127 more weeks. Total above-run: 129 weeks. Lost on the Sep 5, 2025 close.
✅ The two Fridays that armed it: Mar 17, 2023 ($26.77) and Mar 24, 2023 ($25.67).
✅ Last Friday still above: Aug 29, 2025 ($334.41).
✅ First Friday below: Sep 5, 2025 ($335.87 vs SMA $337.56).
✅ Since the week of Sep 5, 2025 through Sep 11, 2026 there are 54 Friday weeks, $MSTR closed below the 50-week SMA on 52 of them.
✅ The only two weeks above in that window: Sep 19, 2025 and Oct 3, 2025.
Bottom line
❌ Sep 19, 2025: $344.75 vs SMA $344.03. Above by a sliver. Next Friday $309.06 — dead again.
❌ Oct 3, 2025: $351.63 vs SMA $348.67. One week. Next Friday $304.79 — and it has stayed below for 49 weeks since!
✅ That is why my rule is 2 Fridays above, not 1. Either of those weeks would have armed a LEAP and then immediately eaten it!
✅ The 2-week filter would have stayed off through both fakes and only treated the Oct 10 / Oct 17 pair as a real below confirm — which is the one that actually stuck.
🚨 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. NFA. DYOR.
#MSTR #BTC #LEAP
I posted this on August 25... nitter.cf/TraderJane8/status/209…
📌 I took profit yesterday, October 6, at $156.48.
📌 5.239% ROI in ~30 trading days.
My take: For a trading system with a 100% win-rate* and hardly any "babysitting", I think that's a pretty good return.
*Based on $UPRO's full history, from Jun 26, 2009. Past returns do not guarantee future results.
NFA. DYOR. #UPRO #CashCow #CashFlowingAsset
⁉️ Is it possible to turn an ETF into a cash cow? 🐮
I have one brokerage account for long-term accumulation (DCA) and one for short-term trading.
For short-term trading, I backtested $UPRO's full history, from Jun 26, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026 with a trading system.
💡 This is what I found...
✅ Win-rate: 100% (not 99%, 100%)
✅ Total Completed Cycles: 194
✅ Total Trading Days: 4,315
✅ Shortest Cycle: 2 days
✅ Longest Cycle: 107 days
💡 From its 4,315-trading-day history, trades that took:
♦️ 1–7 days: 21.1% (41 cycles)
♦️ 8–15 days: 28.9% (56 cycles)
♦️ 16–30 days: 27.8% (54 cycles)
♦️ 31–45 days: 11.9% (23 cycles)
♦️ 46–60 days: 4.6% (9 cycles)
♦️ 61–75 days: 3.1% (6 cycles)
♦️ 76–90 days: 1.5% (3 cycles)
♦️ 91–107 days: 1.0% (2 cycles)
(Note: Percentages total 99.9% due to standard rounding.)
💡 Key Takeaway
➡️ Nearly 78% of all cycles resolve in 30 days or less.
➡️ Over 50% resolve in just 15 days or less.
💡 From its history, by setting aside $2,700 capital, and each buy is $100, my...
🔸Average Gross Profit per Cycle: $23.54
🔸Median Gross Profit per Cycle: $12.61
🔸Average Capital Actually Used (Median Max Bankroll): $200 (meaning most cycles only require your initial $100 + one $100 add)
🔸Average Capital Reserved (Mean Max Bankroll): $328.35
🔸Absolute Worst-Case Capital Required: $2,700 (the 2010 anomaly)
🔸 Real-World Severe Crash Capital Required: $1,800 (March 2020, which still netted ~$162 in profit)
💡 The more important question is, what is my Return on Risk Capital (RORC) per cycle, and how fast does it compound?
In other words: For every dollar I'm forced to keep in reserve to prevent a margin call, how much profit does the system generate, and how many days is my money tied up?
✅ Average Profit: $23.54
✅ Average Max Bankroll Required: $328.35
✅ Return on Risk Capital: ~7.17% per cycle
In other words, I am generating a ~7.17% return on the maximum amount of money I had to risk to complete the cycle.
💡 Summary: $100 Base Unit
1⃣ The Baseline: Most of the time (over 50% of cycles), I will deploy $100, maybe add $100 once, and walk away in about 2 weeks with $12 to $25 in gross profit.
2⃣ The Reserve Requirement: To trade this safely without ever breaking the rules, I must treat $2,700 as the "cost of doing business" for every single $100 unit I run, even though I will rarely (less than 1% of the time) actually need to deploy more than $300–$400.
3⃣ The True Test: The strategy's genius isn't that it makes $23 on a good day; it's that during a historic crash like March 2020, it only required me to have $1,800 in buying power ready, and it still managed to extract a ~$162 profit (a ~9% return on that peak risk capital) before resetting.
It's worth mentioning again, based on its history (from Jun 26, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026), this trading system had a 100%-win rate*.
*Past returns do not guarantee future results. NFA. DYOR. #UPRO #CashCow #CashFlowingAsset
TraderJane retweeted
$BTC IS not priced by 20M coins. It is priced by the few million that are actually for sale.
That distinction matters.
~81% of BTC hasn’t moved in 6+ months
~33% hasn’t moved in 5+ years
Only ~2.5–2.7M BTC sits on exchanges
New supply is just ~450 BTC/day
After the next halving: ~225 BTC/day
First principle:
Price is set at the margin.
If 16M coins are effectively unavailable, demand does not need to compete for 20M BTC.
It competes for the small liquid float.
And that float keeps shrinking as coins move into long-term wallets, ETFs and corporate treasuries.
That is why Bitcoin can look dead for months and then suddenly move 20%, 30%, 50%.
Adoption accumulates slowly.
Liquid supply disappears slowly.
Price adjusts suddenly.
The market keeps watching total supply.
The variable that matters is supply actually willing to sell.
TraderJane retweeted
You used to pay $1,000/m for bitcoin metrics.
That era is over.
BlockHorizon is 100% free:
✅ 150+ charts (MVRV, NUPL, Realized etc)
✅ Full history
✅ Unlimited alerts
✅ CSV / XLS / JSON data downloads
BTC $86k is sitting on 2-year realized price
👉 charts.blockhorizon.io/dashb…
$IBIT closed Friday (Oct 2) at $47.73, 8.50% above its 50-week SMA ($43.99). If history rhymes, $IBIT will stay above the 50W for another 40+ weeks!
$BTC closed the week on Oct 4 at $86,480, 11.26% above its 50-week SMA ($77,730).
Both are still nicely above the line.
NFA. DYOR.
#IBIT #Bitcoin #BTC #SMA #50WSMA #ETF
🤖 Made with AI
P.S. Even if the bull run has begun, I anticipate 15–30% pullbacks before reaching a new all-time high.
Q-DAY:
It isn’t about whether BTC is quantum hardened in time.
It’s WHEN do we see the 1.7M BTC of vulnerable lost coins making their way back onto the market.
It’s a downward repricing event.
BTC will survive. I’d buy that dip.
TraderJane retweeted
This anon called the Bitcoin cycle top on October 6th, 2025 nearly two years in advance
The model also implies a cycle bottom 364 days later
October 5th, 2026
TraderJane retweeted
If you look back on the previous eight months and realize you didn’t go hard enough during the bottom, bookmark this for the next BTC bear:
- mean reversion index in single digit quantiles
- porkopolis trend single digit Qs
- monthly RSI at historic lows
- no impulsivity to buy
TraderJane retweeted
BREAKING: Bitcoin is up +43.1% so far in Q3 2026, on track for its best quarterly performance since Q4 2024.
This would also mark their 3rd-best quarterly gain since US spot Bitcoin ETFs officially began trading in January 2024.
Since August 19th alone, Bitcoin prices have surged +29.8% when the US Treasury said it would increase buybacks of long-dated Treasuries.
Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted +$2.4 billion in inflows in the week ending September 25th, their largest weekly intake since October 2025.
As a result, year-to-date inflows are up to +$1.0 billion, from -$5.0 billion in total outflows recorded at the end of July.
Crypto is in a new bull market.
TraderJane retweeted
About 75% percent of the bitcoin supply is in profit, which is the lifetime mean for this metric. This is what a recovery looks like; this is early bull market stuff. $BTC
nitter.cf/TheETFTracker/status/2…
They really should teach this in schools. Obviously, not exactly this, they should teach DCA into a few low-cost index funds. For instance, if I’d dollar-cost averaged (DCA) $100/week equally into $SPY and $QQQ for 25 years (i.e., $50/week into each), I’d have >$1,182,000 today, September 30, 2026.
How I calculated it
➡️ Invested $50 in each ETF every Friday, using the nearest preceding trading day's closing price.
➡️ Started October 5, 2001, and continued through September 25, 2026.
➡️ Used adjusted closing prices to account for dividends and stock splits, assuming dividends were reinvested.
➡️ Valued both portfolios using the September 29, 2026 closing prices.
Interesting facts
🔸 Despite receiving only half of the contributions, $QQQ accounts for approximately 67.5% of the final portfolio.
🔸 The key takeaway: $100 a week sounds modest, but 25 years of consistent investing would have turned $130,400 of contributions into approximately $1.18 million.
If you invested $10,000 into the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust $DIA since it first launched in January 1998 and held to today, here's how much you'd have:
$118,680 🟢
+1,086.8% total return
TraderJane retweeted
Exit Idea: Scale out in tranches (e.g. 25% at +100%, another 25% at +150–200%, rest on the 2-week 50W SMA break).
TraderJane retweeted
Buy only after a weekly close above the 200-week SMA, followed by either a successful retest or a second consecutive weekly close above the SMA.
✅ How it would have performed in past cycles
1️⃣ 2015 cycle
→ Price briefly dipped near/below the 200W SMA around the January low (~$176 vs SMA ~$192).
→ Weekly closes stayed mostly above after the Aug–Sep 2015 retest period (only short runs of 1–3 weeks below, max ~1.4%).
→ Confirmation via second consecutive close / successful hold would have triggered entry in the recovery phase (roughly late 2015).
→ Outcome: Excellent. Captured the full run from low hundreds to the 2017 ~$20k peak. Very high multiple.
2️⃣ 2018–2019 cycle
→ December 2018 low closed almost exactly on the SMA (~$3,185). No sustained weekly closes below.
→ Rule would have waited for a clean weekly close above + retest or second consecutive close (triggered around early–mid 2019 as price held and advanced).
→ Outcome: Strong. Caught the bounce to ~$14k mid-2019 and the subsequent leg into the 2021 bull. Missed almost none of the upside after the true bottom.
3️⃣ March 2020 (COVID crash)
→ One single weekly close below (15 Mar 2020, ~2.5% under).
→ Immediate next week closed back above → second consecutive / successful reclaim triggered quickly.
→ Outcome: Outstanding. Entry near the low, followed by the explosive move to the 2021 ATH (~$64k–$69k). ~10× in under a year from the signal zone.
4️⃣ 2022–2023 cycle
→ First weekly close below on 19 Jun 2022. Then a long stretch (30 consecutive weeks Aug 2022–Mar 2023) with deepest close ~32% below.
→ Multiple short false reclaims in mid–late 2023 (Jun, Aug–Sep, Oct).
→ The 2-week consecutive / successful retest filter would have kept you out of the early fakes and only confirmed once the sustained hold above took hold (late Oct 2023 onward).
→ Outcome: Good but lagged. You would have bought well after the absolute Nov 2022 low (~$15.5k), closer to the $25k–$35k reclaim zone. Still captured the majority of the subsequent multi-year bull to the 2025 highs (~$126k). Avoided the deepest underwater period and the false starts.
🌟 Overall track record
→ Across the major completed cycles the rule has been highly effective at identifying durable cycle lows and avoiding the worst of the bear-market grind.
→ It is a lagging filter by design (waits for confirmation), so it never buys the absolute bottom.
→ Best performance in the cleaner, shorter dips (2015, 2018, 2020).
→ Still profitable but later in the prolonged 2022 under-water period.
→ Historically, buyers who waited for the confirmed reclaim of the 200W SMA have seen strong multi-year returns, with the line acting as a reliable long-term accumulation zone rather than a hard floor.
🔸 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. NFA. DYOR.