Compartmentalizing randomness - Imposing structure on chaos.

Joined November 2025
$DRAM Can we build out a Higher Low? Still needs some work to reclaim the KMAs.
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$TMO $A Some of these bases in Life Sciences look interesting.
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$IOVA I know many may not trade biotech, but take a look at some of these charts and you’d think we are in the middle of a raging bull market. 125% in less than 3 months. Never violating the 21D. 12M RS - 98 1M RS - 97
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$HAS Sure, it’s Hasbro. But it’s up 20% in six days in a tape where everyone is constantly talking about leaders breaking key MAs. Sure, it’s not a 10% ADR name, but if these are the names working and breaking out, who are we to keep questioning what the market is giving us? The market is currently signaling a clear preference for Value over Growth. Until that changes, it is what it is.
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The Weekend Report: A Self Reflection. Out With the Old, In With the New While scanning this weekend, you can’t help but notice how many names are breaking out, with many trading near their 52W highs and some offering great entry points over the past few weeks. It makes you wonder whether the fixation on the leaders and themes that have made people money over the past year or so is preventing them from seeing what’s developing now. Are people still waiting for those same names to give them the green light? In some ways, it may be a good thing that previous leaders have broken below their 10W, 30W, and even 40W moving averages. It creates room for new leaders to emerge and new opportunities to develop, if you’re open to looking for them. What if value, retail, and software are the next leadership groups quietly emerging while everyone remains focused on former leaders breaking down? What if these new leaders drive the market over the next 12–18 months? Are we going to keep talking about AI and semiconductor names that continue to break down, or are we going to shift our attention to where the next opportunities are developing? At some point, that narrative needs to end. The leaders that made you a lot of money have broken down. Let them go. The market is always evolving, and the next opportunity rarely comes from refusing to move on from the last one. Staying open minded gets thrown around a lot, but are you truly living by that mantra? Or are you still holding on to the leaders of yesterday, waiting for them to give you permission to move on?
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$LLY When a Trade Becomes an Emotional "Investment". The moment you turn a trade into an investment, you become emotionally attached to it. You stop focusing on what the chart is telling you and start hoping the stock will simply return to your cost basis or at least get close enough that the pain of taking a loss feels more bearable. And just when you finally reach that point and close the position, the stock starts showing leadership, breaks out, and does exactly what you originally hoped it would do. Why? Because you were so emotionally invested that you couldn’t step back and objectively recognize the setups unfolding in front of you. The lesson? Take the small loss when the trade proves you wrong. If the stock sets up again and presents a new opportunity, you’ll be in a much better position to evaluate it with a clear head, free from the emotional baggage of your previous trade. Remember, you don’t have to be right on every trade. You just have to protect your capital, manage your risk, and stay objective enough to recognize the next opportunity. Trade the chart, not your emotions.
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Portfolio Pulse: 100% Cash. I came into the week 100% in cash, making this my lowest activity trading period of the year. Moving forward, I want to build on this by being more intentional with my trading activity, improving my situational awareness, and recognizing when it’s best to stay on the sidelines. Tested the waters early in the week, one name at a time, but saw no traction. $QQQ and $VIX continue to confirm elevated volatility and underlying weakness. 10/19 - $BITX ($IBIT) 10/21 - $NTRA 10/22 - $SPCX Back to reviewing the process and protecting against further drawdown into year end.
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$QQQ Building higher lows from here, while more names reclaim their 50D, would be constructive and consistent with the pattern we’ve seen during the last few corrections/pullbacks. Is this time different? 🤷‍♂️🍿 Going back to study precedents and building my own charts to compare and contrast current setups with past scenarios and notes is a new concept for me. Just another small step in the ongoing process of learning from, internalizing, and applying the lessons and insights of so many great traders.
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There’s none of the excitement in the air that we had back in April and May. Every time you put on a trade, there’s this lingering sense of uncertainty. Even when you believe you have an edge, the current market environment seems to be taking that edge away. I’ve fallen into the overtrading trap more times than I can count, but there’s a unique sense of relief and euphoria that comes with recognizing when things aren’t working anymore and stepping back into cash. Feels almost as good as catching a strong uptrend. It’s times like these that you realize overtrading takes far more from you than it gives back, both mentally and financially.
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Not much to get excited about on the charts. Lots of wide and loose action among the liquid names. $IBIT is one possible setup that looks actionable.
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$SMH - An annotated Story I revisited two $SMH trades I took in 2026. Same instrument, but two very different market environments and, after taking a deeper dive this weekend, two very different approaches to how I should have traded them. The first chart covers the April–May period. A hallmark characteristic of a powerful, institutional driven uptrend. When a stock, instrument is in a high momentum phase, the 10D moving average acts as a moving floor, reflecting intense buying pressure that doesn't allow the price to rest for long. Positioning myself to take advantage of these brief windows of opportunity is crucial. I need clear trim rules for managing the trade while the trend remains intact, as well as for recognizing when those expectations are breached and no longer valid. Just as important as knowing when to stay on the train is knowing when to get off, and get off fast.
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The second $SMH chart covers the more recent chop fest. Both trades had nearly identical entry zones, yet resulted in two completely different outcomes. The difference was in how I managed them afterward. Selling has always been the hardest part of trading for me. Establishing clear offensive and defensive trim rules should help me remove emotion from the process and make more objective decisions. I need to remind myself that controlling drawdowns and protecting capital matter far more than "the pie in the sky idea of how much I could make", as PTJ famously said. My job is to manage risk, preserve capital, and be ready when the big trends come along.
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