TradeLeaks

$SNDK: "customer signals now extending beyond fiscal year 2030 through our new business model or NBM partnerships."

Morgan Stanley on Lumentum/Marvell deal: Marvell’s DSP client base includes optical module makers that compete directly with Lumentum, which could undermine the supplier-neutral reputation Marvell relies on. This creates a major potential conflict of interest that may put its current DSP revenue at risk. $MRVL $LITE

Samsung Electronics raised its 2026 semiconductor capex plan to ₩76.8 trillion won (US$53 billion), from ₩47.5 trillion last year ($33.4 billion) amid strong AI-related demand expected to continue for years, executives said during its 3rd quarter conference. ₩52.8T has already been spent thru Q3. -2027 capex to rise further versus 2026 -New fabs and advanced packaging plants are being planned for the US and Korea to meet strong AI demand Taylor, Texas site capex set to rise – new fab building under review -Taylor fab to start operations in 2027 -Equipment move-in going on now $ASML $AMAT $LRCX $KLAC $TOELY #Texas #Taylor #Semiconductors

Initial notes on $MRVL's rumoured $LITE acquisition: 1. Why?! - $LITE's CEO has said they're sold out into 2029. So do management think the InP laser shortage is shorter than what their orders suggest? Need more clarity on why Lumentum would green light this. - With lasers sold out into 2029, I think owning the fab might be the only way $MRVL can guarantee supply for FY28 growth. So maybe Marvell and Lumentum have different reads on the InP laser shortage? 2. This has to be mostly stock. - $MRVL has ~$3.9B cash vs. $5.0B debt. Combined run-rate EBITDA is circa $7-7.5B (my numbers), so I think staying investment grade caps new debt at around $15-20B. - At a ~30% premium that leaves $85-90B+ paid in stock, with $LITE holders owning ~30% of the combined company. - I feel that’s a lot of Marvell to hand over. 3. I think the strategy is much better than the reaction. - $MRVL are essentially buying the part of the optical link that survives the move to CPO which is a pretty smart hedge on their own DSP franchise. - Marvell announced Inphi around 6 years ago (~$10B in cash + stock), and that deal built the core of MRVL's optics business. - This is basically the same move just one layer down, from DSP to laser, stacked on Celestial AI. - Probably a good signal that Marvell are running the same optics playbook again? 4. Dilution. - $MRVL trades on about 52x run rate EPS. - $LITE is about 60x on its FQ1 guide at tonight's AH price and about 70x with a 30% premium. - That's ~15% dilutive to Marvell's run-rate EPS (my rough napkin math number) assuming a 30% premium, ~$17.5B of new debt at ~5%, and the rest in stock at $228. (Again, very rough numbers). - It only turns accretive if Lumentum keeps outgrowing Marvell at today's guided rates (+24% q/q vs +15%) for another five or six quarters. - I think that's achievable while the laser shortage lasts, but I feel the whole deal ends up being a bet on how long that is. 5. Fewer lasers on the open market. - If LITE's output gets prioritised for $NVDA and Marvell's own modules, everyone else buying LITE EMLs and CW lasers gets tighter allocation. - I think that's bullish for laser pricing at $COHR and for other laser sources like $SIVE (lol). - Feels like the module makers that depend on LITE lasers are the quiet losers. 6. Channel conflict. - Marvell is the leading DSP supplier to 800G/1.6T module makers, and LITE already sells its own modules through Cloud Light. - I think Innolight and Eoptolink start shifting DSP share to $AVGO and $CRDO? - I feel hyperscalers will push harder to second-source lasers from $COHR.

GPU/ASIC Roadmap and Supply Chain $GOOGL $NVDA $MSFT $AVGO $MRVL $AMZN

I remember first getting into $FLY at ~$20... weird feeling seeing it back at ~$20 months later. 😅 But it makes sense! Entire sector took a downturn when $SPCX IPO'd, followed by terrible macro conditions. I do think most of space is still oversold, especially since they're quite literally building the infra for the future of civilization. Was not expecting to see $ASTS, $FLY, $RKLB, etc. at these prices. First BD for $FLY came in around ~$17, with two more that came in at ~$18.