Hi Everyone! I'm Keshav. Derivatives Analyst at a trading firm. What I do : I'm on a desk trading US options for clients. Building the strategies, picking strikes and expiries, sizing positions and deciding when to cut or roll. Every trade goes on a running P&L so we know which setups actually pay and which don't. Outside the US book, I'm on Nifty and stock options looking for setups worth trading alongside my usual swing trading which I have been doing for years. How I got here : Commerce grad. Started as a Junior Finance Associate, doing options trading and equity research for over a year. Top performer in a simulated trading program with 35%+ returns in 4 months on BSE500 stocks. Moved from a data analyst role into derivatives after that. Cleared NISM VIII (92.5), XV and XVI along the way. Where I want to go : build my own systematic options strategies. And help retail traders here trade derivatives with proper risk management instead of gambling on expiry or at least get profitable with swing trading. What you'll find here : Nifty, Sensex and stock levels I'm watching, and the setups I like Options explained in plain words. Expiry, option selling, expected moves, dealer flows Risk and discipline. Stop losses, averaging down, journaling, the rules I follow after a bad day How the US markets, Fed, crude, gold and Bitcoin feed into Indian markets IPO calls, including the ones I'm avoiding If that's your kind of feed, follow along. Let's see where this goes.

Germany, 1923: at the peak of hyperinflation, prices were doubling every few days. By November, one US dollar was worth over 4 trillion marks. People were paid twice a day and rushed to spend wages before prices rose again. Banknotes were used as wallpaper and kindling. Middle-class savings were wiped out almost overnight. Everyone who wonders why central banks fear inflation so much should start here.

Salary hike tip: increase your SIP the same month your salary goes up. Before you get used to the extra money.

Read the IPO's Objects of the Issue section. If most of the money goes to existing shareholders selling out, ask why they want to leave.

Every bubble has a real technology at its centre. Railways in the 1840s. Radio in the 1920s. The internet in the late 1990s. All of them changed the world. Most investors in them still lost money, because they paid too much, too early, for companies that didn't survive. The technology can be real and the valuations can still be a bubble. Both can be true at the same time.

A plan that works in a bull market and fails in every other market isn't a plan. It's a bull market.

US stock buybacks have been one of the biggest sources of demand for US stocks. S&P 500 companies now buy back close to a trillion dollars of their own shares a year. Buybacks are good when: • Shares are fairly priced or cheap • Funded from free cash flow They're bad when: • Done at peak valuations • Funded with debt • Just covering for employee stock dilution

A 9% dividend yield looks amazing. Often it's a warning. Yield = dividend ÷ price. If the price crashed, the yield jumps on its own. The market may be signalling the dividend will be cut. Check two things: is the dividend covered by free cash flow, and is the payout ratio sustainable? If not, the high yield is a trap.

A stock that falls 90% first falls 80%. Then it halves again.

Credit spreads, simply: the extra interest companies pay over the government to borrow. Government bond: 4.0% Strong company bond: 5.0% → spread 1% Weak company bond: 8.0% → spread 4% When investors get nervous, spreads widen fast, especially for weak companies. Widening spreads often warn of trouble before the stock market notices.

In August 2018, Yes Bank shares traded around ₹400. It was one of India's most admired private banks. On March 6, 2020, the stock hit ₹5.55. RBI had placed the bank under a moratorium the evening before. What happened in between is a lesson in why "it's fallen so much, it must be cheap" is one of the most dangerous sentences in investing. The warning signs came in stages: • RBI found the bank had under-reported bad loans • RBI did not extend the CEO's term beyond January 2019 • Capital-raising plans kept failing • Credit ratings were cut At ₹200, many investors thought it was a bargain. At ₹100, a steal. At ₹50, "it can't go lower". Each step down, people averaged down. Here's the maths that hurts: a stock that falls from ₹400 to ₹100 has lost 75%. If you buy at ₹100 and it falls to ₹10, you lose another 90%. What to take from it: 1. Price falling is not the same as value increasing. Ask why it's falling. 2. In banks, trust is the business. When regulators and depositors lose confidence, the numbers can change very quickly. 3. Averaging down only works when the business is intact. Re-check the thesis before every new purchase. 4. Never let one stock become large enough to damage your financial life. Cheap can always get cheaper. Only fundamentals tell you when it has stopped.

ELSS funds have a 3-year lock-in. That's a feature, not a bug. It stops you from panic-selling at the bottom.

China is the world's largest exporter, and the biggest buyer of many commodities. So when China slows down: • Metal prices (copper, iron ore, steel) usually fall • Countries that export to China feel it • Cheap Chinese goods can flood other markets When China announces big stimulus, metal stocks around the world, including in India, often rally the same day. Watch China if you trade metals.

If you can't describe what would prove your trade wrong, you don't have a trade. You have a hope.

Real estate returns often look great because people remember the buy and sell price, not the stamp duty, maintenance, loan interest and years of low rent yield.

Ask yourself before every trade: if this goes to my stop, will I be okay? If the answer is no, the size is wrong.

When oil spikes, it acts like a tax on almost everyone. For India especially, since the country imports around 85% of the crude oil it uses: • Higher import bill → rupee weakens • Petrol, diesel and freight costs rise → inflation goes up • Companies like paints, tyres and airlines see margins squeezed Oil is one of the most important numbers for an Indian investor to keep an eye on, even if you never trade it.

Keep nominee details updated on every bank account, demat and mutual fund. It takes minutes and saves families months.