Trinity retweeted
$1,000,000 is enough to retire. Just not with traditional finance.
$SCHD = $33,000 annually ❌
4% rule = $40,000 annually ❌
Here’s 4 better options. 🧵👇
• Joe McCann’s post highlights a Goldman Sachs note on CTA positioning asymmetry, warning of $45 billion in potential selling pressure on a 2-sigma S&P 500 drop versus only $5.5 billion in buying on an equivalent rally.
• The attached chart illustrates US CTA tail scenarios through early November 2026, with sharp negative flows in SPX downside cases contrasted against modest positive flows in upside scenarios for equities and bonds.
• This imbalance points to trend-following funds potentially amplifying downward moves in equities if volatility spikes, reflecting concentrated risk in systematic trading strategies.
Ruh roh
@GoldmanSachs: CTA Asymmetry Is 8x, $45bn Selling on 2-Sigma SPX Drop vs $5.5bn Buying on 2-Sigma Rally
If he’s correct would be quite an impressive prediction list!
Dam I impress even myself sometimes 🔮
(Ongoing predictions: Republican midterm sweep, long compute, Iran escalation & regime change, China decoupling, Cuba regime change, Brazil Bolsanaro, USMCA falls apart & Canadian recession or capitulate and lock China out, China distillation nuked, lab ARR will accel meaningfully, AI layoffs start EOY ‘26 & US mid-‘27, gender wars continue to intensify, ChatGPT robotics moment in 2027, Dr Sinclairs epigenetic research gets more attention, TSLA+SpaceX merger)
Trinity retweeted
As Ukraine continues to target Russian data centers for longer-range strikes and as the Iranians & houthis follow suit it’s going to become increasingly clear why Saudi was always onboard with regime change in Iran even if it puts their refining infra at risk.
You want to diversify towards the future you’ll need datacenters.
A world where Iran can drone your datacenters precludes you from receiving meaningful investment or participating in the upcoming gold rush.
Regime change at all costs.
And they have a unique opportunity to leverage a president who is selling regime-change-as-a-service for the low price of siding with us on decoupling when the time comes.
Trinity retweeted
The truth is there are far fewer AI-maxis within the investing class than you might otherwise think.
Plenty of bottleneck bros. Lots of hyperscale truthers. Abundant semiconductor enjoyers. Infinite momo lovers.
But people who have actually glimpsed the future because they can think non-linearly and instantly understood Leo’s message back in mid-2024… an incredibly small handful.
The most fascinating part has been that neither Claude Code or Astra changed this.
The same people who can think abstractly before the proofpoint continue to be able to after. And everyone else still needs to be spoon fed.
I’d estimate within the TMT L/S community sub-5% are true maxis.
And no Coatue isn’t maxi. Neither is Gavin who I respect the fuck out of. But he’s rationally optimistic but cautious.
Maxi’s start with the assumption that models can be scaled up well past human intellect at a pace that the human mind can’t project and the economic value of that scale up is exponentially larger than existing gdp. Human bottlenecks are irrelevant as models get smarter.
And with that north star we work backwards because path function matters and we have to pay rent until the robots are made.
It’s a very different headspace vs starting with the premise that hyperscalers are likely to milk a couple hundred billion in cloud revs if this all goes to shit.
Trinity retweeted
BREAKING: The number of restaurants in New York dropped ~2,000 YoY in Q1 2026, posting its largest YoY decline in at least 36 years.
This surpasses even the worst contraction recorded in any quarter during the 2020 pandemic.
The number of eating and drinking places in New York State has now declined YoY for 4 consecutive quarters, its longest streak since 2021.
This comes as restaurants are facing surging operating expenses, including insurance premiums, wages, interest rates, utilities, and health coverage, with overall costs rising faster than national averages.
Last year, employee health insurance costs jumped +12.9% for New York-area service firms, business insurance rose +7.0%, while utility costs surged +8.5%, according to the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce.
Skyrocketing costs are crushing New York restaurants.
Trinity retweeted
My 2026 YTD just fell from 410% to 248%.
Here's why I'm happy about it (no joke) :)
Whenever the market tanks (especially $NBIS, even when I have no position lol), the bears love to celebrate, dunk on me and call me and other Nebius bulls pumpers and scammers.
A few people asked me to update my YTD. Sure, happy to be transparent!
2026 YTD is currently down from 410% to 248%. I also updated it in my X bio.
But I actually see this as a huge win and confirmation that I did a good job trading, and here's why:
1) My highest-conviction stock, $NBIS, is up 84% YTD. I'm very happy to have ~3x that performance, which makes me feel like all the active trading over just holding Nebius and chilling was worth it.
2) My portfolio is down LESS from its ATH than my favorite names. I don't only care about my performance, but also about my future expected performance, which is tied to how much upside I see in my favorite stocks.
If $NBIS goes down 50% and I "only" go down 30%, I see it as a big win, because I did a good job Nebiusmaxxing and now have higher expected upside. That's why I'm often super happy when we crash, as long as I crash a little less. Because at the same time my expected long-term performance increased.
I also often go to cash with part of the portfolio and go back all-in too early. I almost never catch the perfect bottom, but I'm often very close to trimming the top or entering near the bottom.
People who follow me can confirm this is factually true and not just a claim. My timing the last 2 years an 100+ trades has been pretty good.
In my view, being roughly right and not missing the next rally should however be the main focus! That's where 80% of the gains come from, not from buying 10-15% lower and catching the bottom 1 out of 10 times.
3) At the end of the day, I'll tell the bears a little secret: my internal benchmark is 3x the $QQQ, which is at +15%. I'm not gonna lie, I was dreaming of a 1,000% return this year, which now looks very unlikely to impossible, but the nights where I cry myself to sleep for only being up 248% are quite rare, and I still somehow make it through the day ;)
Last but not least: I'd love to hear from the AI bears. What does your YTD look like this year, or last year, or the year before?
Will you also fully transparently share all your trades with me and the community? Every single buy and sell in real-time with alerts and 3rd party verified?
Anyone? No? Not one bear does this? Interesting.
After nailing the last few weeks, you must be crushing it, right?
Show those numbers! If you're beating me or AI bulls in general, I promise I'll shut up, study your takes and learn from you 🫡 I'm not being sarcastic.
CNN Fear & Greed just hit 18. EXTREME FEAR.
Here’s what history says about the S&P 500 when sentiment falls below 25:
• 30 days later: +2.6% avg | 73% positive
• 90 days later: +5.9% avg | 78% positive
• 1 year later: +15.2% avg | 86% positive
Doesn’t mean we’ve bottomed. It means panic has historically created opportunity.
Fear isn’t a timing signal. It’s a signal to start paying attention.
Source: Mandala Wealth, 2011–2025.
Trinity retweeted
liz warren: we’re gonna stop the mayonnaise company from buying a hot sauce company
elon musk:
Great perspective. Of these four, $TSM and $ASML stand out most to me.
Both have exceptionally strong moats and benefit from the broader AI buildout regardless of which chip designer ultimately wins. TSM manufactures the advanced chips, while ASML provides the critical technology needed to produce them.
Their relative strength reinforces the thesis. I’m increasingly interested in building longer-term positions, potentially through LEAPS, around the companies that the entire AI ecosystem depends on rather than chasing every new AI name.
I rarely share my strategy. Read this one twice.
Many AI investors are down significantly because they don't stress test their stocks enough.
The July drawdown told us exactly which AI stocks institutions trust more.
Plenty of names bounced 50%+ off the lows. But only a few showed enough strength to make new highs, get close, or at least print higher lows. The rest still haven't recovered.
Institutionally backed companies are where the money goes first. Trust is such a thing. Chart strength is the market showing you which companies are absolute gold and which ones were just hype.
That doesn't mean the laggards won't recover, or that your thesis on them is wrong. Many times they've proven people right. It just means you'll probably sit in dead money longer than you'd like. Nobody enjoys that.
This bull run won't be as easy as the early years. Multiple forces will hit at once, either to shake retail out of beautifully built positions or to get stocks at cheaper prices. That's how institutions keep winning and growing their AUM.
It's the price of being in a bull run with obvious signs of a gold rush. Every gold rush comes with its own tests.
So track what they're doing. Not only what your thesis says. Fundamentals alone aren't enough if you want significantly more than the normal investor. The market follows technicals too, so look for confluence across multiple signals.
Sure, companies with almost unbreakable 10+ year moats will go up anyway. That's the tendency of the market. But we don't want to wait until then. We want to make use of the biggest bull run that ever existed.
Sometimes you don't need the next undiscovered stock. The AI buildout is full of gems you already know. Chasing noise only leads to lower quality research and more trades, because you want a piece of everything when you don't need to.
Find a handful of high-quality companies. Stress test them. Build a core of the buildout's most important names, plus a few making headlines with catalysts that could turn them into winners. Use the emotional swings to buy them consistently.
That's what pays. Meditate!
$NVDA $TSM $ASML $AVGO
This is exactly why I follow this guy. I de-risked when he warned us (wish I’d done more!), and today I was able to trade a few bounces, take profits, and get out instead of getting sucked into what could easily be dead-cat bounces. That kind of perspective is invaluable in this market. Appreciate his work!
The cycle of retards buying the first dip they ever see is a tale as old as @AtlasShrug1
AI has become so important to the economy that I doubt policymakers would stand by if the trade started unraveling into something systemic.
But that doesn’t mean AI stocks can’t suffer a major correction first.
Sticky inflation limits the Fed’s flexibility, AI spending is running ahead of monetization, and valuations leave little room for disappointment. Earnings can keep growing and still fail to justify current prices.
And even if policymakers eventually step in, a lot of damage could happen before they do.
The backstop may be under the economy, not under stock prices.
Long-term bullish on AI. Short-term cautious on the trade. Staying cash-heavy until the risk/reward improves.
My current bearish thesis. This is how I see the recent downside pressure:
• Sticky inflation keeps the Fed restrictive and financing expensive.
• AI requires massive spending today, while monetization takes time.
• Keep spending and free cash flow takes the hit. Cut spending and growth expectations across semis, memory, and data centers come into question.
• Higher borrowing costs make that equation harder, especially for companies dependent on debt.
Earnings have to justify both the spending and the valuations. Revenue can keep growing and still fall short of what stocks are pricing in.
The risk is earnings expectations coming down while higher rates compress multiples. That combination can turn a pullback into something deeper.
Keeping cash heavy and letting price action guide my next move.✍️
Joe McCann is making a bullish call on growth stocks, particularly technology, despite hotter inflation.
He’s arguing that the bond market is signaling something more important than the CPI headline: long-term Treasury yields may have peaked.
Notice the divergence: short-term yields are rising, but longer-term yields are falling.
That’s called yield-curve flattening.
Why is that potentially bullish?
A hot CPI report would normally raise concerns about inflation, interest rates, and expensive growth stocks.
But the market appears to be saying:
Near term: The Fed may need to keep rates higher.
Longer term: Inflation or economic growth may eventually slow.
Equities: Falling longer-term yields can improve valuations for growth companies because their future earnings are discounted at lower rates.
This is particularly relevant to Nasdaq, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and other long-duration growth assets.
I see three possible interpretations:
Bullish — inflation fears are peaking
Long yields continue falling, credit remains stable, and technology stocks strengthen. This supports buying pullbacks.
Neutral — temporary bond-market relief
Yields decline for a day or two but reverse higher. Not enough evidence of a durable change.
Bearish — growth fears are increasing
Long yields fall because investors expect a recession. Credit spreads widen and earnings expectations deteriorate.
My takeaway
This is potentially bullish for AI and technology positions, and it complements the midterm-election seasonality thesis.
However, there’s an important distinction: a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.19% is still high. A decline of 2.7 basis points in one session doesn’t establish that yields have topped.
What I’d watch next:
Whether the 10-year yield continues moving lower, the Nasdaq outperforms, and credit spreads remain contained.
If all three happen together, that would be much stronger evidence for the bullish interpretation.
And one subtle point: Joe’s phrase “duration rallies” could refer to long-duration Treasury bonds as well as growth equities. Falling long-term yields directly benefit long-duration bonds; the benefit to stocks depends on why yields are falling.
Bottom line:
Encouraging signal for the bull case, but not yet confirmation.
Trinity retweeted
Fantastic read. I agree with pretty much everything.
I know most won't read it, so here are my main points (not 100% according to Gavin's post, but roughly same future vision):
1) AI is so big, a ton of players can and will win, EVEN if they lose market share, because pure TAM expansion will be crazy.
It's ok to go from 10% share to 5% if your market gets 10x bigger!
2) We want a diverse and more robust ecosystem with a ton of players and competition!
We want the frontier labs, Neoclouds, open source, startups, enterprise adoption, all of it!
Everyone can contribute talent, ideas, data, distribution, capital and use cases and we will grow this pie bigger together :)
3) The constant worries and FUD are GOOD, because we prefer a long and smooth buildout over a short mania into crash into rebuild. Consistency is better long term!
Of course I want my stonks to go up now, but I prefer a long term compounding opportunity over an overbuild into "dead" years.
1) Trying again.
TLDR: Everyone can win. Open-source, frontier labs, infrastructure, applications and most importantly the American people.
I understand all of the jitters about Anthropic losing share, real rates, spreads and second derivatives. Still think the most likely future outcome is a hybrid, multi-model future where almost everyone wins, open-weight tokens are likely the overwhelming majority of tokens, the dominant frontier model companies still do well albeit perhaps not the outcome that seemed possible in May and AI infrastructure/applications benefit immensely from the increased fragmentation, competition and lower margins at the model layer.
Lower margins at the model layer mechanically drive higher compute demand as long as someone is willing to pay for the training. And Jensen is obviously willing to be the “trainer of last resort.” As below-market compute contracts signed in 24/25 roll-off and reprice higher, cloud and neocloud revenue should continue to accelerate which will help address financing fears; I think we may be near peak external financing for this buildout. Noteworthy that using data from 3Fourteen Research, B200 clusters will generate a 37% IRR *if* their rental price declines 40% per year. Prices are still going up, but that IRR math is too ridiculous to print. 37% IRRs available at scale should get funded.
Re: this weekends controversy about MOUs, Anthropic’s $413 billion of real contractual commitments sounds scary. Reality is that it works out to roughly $31 billion of annual cloud spend, which is easily internally financed given their reported ARR, and $161 billion of spend at Broadcom which will be financed by Broadcom and private credit.
Continue to believe fragmentation at the model layer is the best outcome for ordinary Americans and humans everywhere. As I have said before, do not trust any 5-20 individuals to make the best possible decisions about the direction of this technology. I want as many AIs as possible to maximize the odds that they encompass the diversity of human values across the world and richness of human variation. And I want an AI that shares my own personal values. Safety, freedom and the maximization of human agency through democratization, distribution and diffusion vs. centralization. History has spoken on the dangers of the latter path.
Finally, from my perspective anything that slows this buildout down is net positive over the long-term as the biggest risk and worst outcome is an *actual* overbuild. We are structurally short watts, wafers and increasingly capital. That is all good. God forbid we were still in ZIRP, TSM ramped capex to 3x their current plan and we weren’t short turbine blades: there would almost certainly be an overbuild and a bubble. That would be terrible. Slower and smoother for longer is better both for investors and for the world. A terrible cyber event is the most plausible near term bear case IMHO, but AI cyberdefense ramping quickly and I was happy to hear Sholto say that cyber probably becomes defense dominant in the near future.
Longer, threaded version follows:
Trinity retweeted
We are witnessing a historic shift.
The annual spread between the S&P 500's earnings yield and the 10Y Note yield is down to -1.5 percentage points, its lowest since 2009.
Since 2022, this yield difference has fallen -440 basis points, its largest 5-year decline since the 1970s.
As a result, the S&P 500's equity risk premium is on track to post its 3rd consecutive negative annual reading, the longest streak since 2002.
This suggests that, on a yield basis, theoretically less risky 10Y Treasuries are now more attractive than the S&P 500.
In other words, investors are receiving a higher yield from Treasuries than from the S&P 500, despite the additional risk of owning stocks.
Historically, a negative equity risk premium has been associated with strong risk appetite and stretched equity valuations.
We expect an eventful Q4 ahead.
Trinity retweeted
$BTC: One Year ago, the bear market started
Here is a log of all my predictions since then
As mentioned in Summer, the bear is over
Trinity retweeted
#Bitcoin – What’s Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
Friends, the correction I warned about has arrived, and once again the direction was right. I bought Bitcoin at $60,000 and called for $88K. Before that move unfolded, I explained the sequence clearly: Break $82,500 and the bear is confirmed over, and the move toward $88,000 will be quick. Some days later Bitcoin I reached the $88K target area! But instead of becoming more aggressive on the upside after the move I had anticipated, I started preparing for the opposite direction. I entered a short around $86,200 and outlined additional orders between $86,500 and $89,500. I made my Trade very clear: It is the expectation of a correction within a bull market, not the beginning of another bear market.
And Bitcoin delivered that correction, falling to $80,300. I closed my entire BTC short at $80,600, took the profits and bought more Bitcoin spot at that same price. The short served its purpose, the profits are realized, and my Bitcoin holdings have increased. I am no longer waiting for $79K. My focus has moved to the next leg up. Remember why I opened the short in the first place. In the previous report, I highlighted the daily RSI bearish divergence as my most important warning, alongside MACD/PPO and MFI divergences, while ADX showed weakening trend strength. Those were my reasons to prepare for a pullback after the move into the $88K region.
Now to the important part: my next Bitcoin price target is $94,000! I believe this correction is setting up the next leg of the bull market, and my positioning reflects that view. The $88K area was my previous target, and we saw as well the correction I expected, Now, I call for 94k! To reach $94K, Bitcoin must recover the region where I accumulated the short and push beyond it. Means, Bitcoin needs to show spot demand at 86k instead of distribution, and this time I think we will get the accumulation at 86-89k instead of distribution and thats where resistance becomes support.
Its important to be on top of the Food Chain, I closed the Short at $80,600 in PREMIUM but shared my update 2 hours later on X and the price of BTC was already at 82k. Many updates in regards to all my positions are only EXCLUSIVE in Premium only. (DrProfitCrypto.com)
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.
Trinity retweeted
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