Ever since the #BOMs website radar upgrade (I think thats when it started), false echoes are turning up every evening over eastern #NSW. To the untrained eye this could become confusing.

Spencers Creek snow thaw for 2026 is complete and for the first time on record its in September

So far #NSW has been spared the worst of El Niño, despite a dry September. Drought only up 8% since its onset in June. Fingers crossed enough rain arrives in October and November before El Niño's impact on rainfall diminishes across Australia. #ElNiño

You have to go back 25 years to find a snow depth at Deep Creek as dismal as this year's through the first half of the ski season. And while 2020 and 2006 also saw a brief 0cm in late July, they both measured deeper snow earlier in the season.

#Sydney's year without a winter. While we have seen the odd chilly night and cool day, temperatures have been well above average. June-July combined easily the warmest on record. Note: anomaly calculated against the 1859 to 2025 mean (that's why most years are red)

Record #ElNiño predicted by latest update of ACCESS-S model. The ensemble mean of Relative Niño3.4 is forecast to exceed +3C, comfortably above the current record of +2.65C from November 1902 (ERSST v5)

Here's an illuminating way to view #ElNiño's impact on Australia's winter-spring rain. Not one single El Niño since 1950 has been wetter than average on a national scale. Locally though there is a much greater variability.

Graph I showed on ABC News last night to put last week's record cold March temperatures in perspective. From January 2025 to February 2026, 446 hot records were set in NSW, compared to 80 cold records.

#CycloneNarelle's near 2 week journey is almost over. It will become the first Australian cyclone in 21 years to make landfalls in QLD, the NT and WA. Please excuse the slight error in category over the Top End and Kimberley.

Mesovortex is visible within the eye of #CycloneNarelle. Only the strongest storms exhibit this feature. Image from the JMA target satellite. #Queensland #Narelle

#CycloneNarelle could be the first in 21 years to make 3 separate landfalls. #Narelle #Cyclone abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/c…

The humidity the past few weeks has been oppressive in #Sydney. And I have the proof ... but using dew point which is a far more direct and accurate measure of atmospheric moisture than RH%.

ENSO becoming more volatile? I have calculated the running 10 year mean of absolute relative NINO3.4 values (ERSST.v5). Seems to be trend here which concurs with some of the research. #ElNino #ENSO #LaNino

If El Niño develops this year as predicted by modelling (which are least accurate in Jan-Feb) lets see if we can finally avoid the misinformation about a dry summer. abc.net.au/news/2026-02-12/p…

#Sydney has now recorded its equal highest December maximum. Tied with 42.2C from 1957

Graph I showed on ABC news last night. The 3 worst fire seasons since 1985 for NSW in terms of hectares burnt all have a negative Antarctic Oscillation from Sep to Dec (proxy from SAM). Some negative SAM years though, like 2000, aren't bad fire seasons - so there is hope.

There is a global misconception the Gulf Stream is the main reason western Europe has mild winters. I would argue the key is the presence of any major body of water to the west, regardless of currents. Eg Vancouver is only slightly cooler than London at a similar latitude.

October was dry but #Sydney is still winning the rain race this year - about 4 times Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart.

The Indian Ocean Dipole index has dropped to another record. The latest weekly measurement of -1.94 is the lowest in the BOM's database extending back to 2008. Earlier monthly calculations suggest its the lowest since at least 1996.

An October daily record of 39C is predicted for #Sydney tomorrow - along with an extreme fire danger, strong winds and a possible severe thunderstorm. The monthly record will also be broken - a mean well above 27C which easily exceeds the current record of 26.2C from 1988.