@TokyoDecoder

The Tokyo Decoder analyzes BoJ policy and JGB&OIS yield curves. We look past the headline noise to find the 'will' of the Japanese policymakers. 石 versus 意志

tokyodecoder.substack.com
Joined March 2026
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66Media
植田日銀総裁､基調物価が2％を上回ることは容認できない－利上げ継続 bloomberg.com/jp/news/articl…

植田日銀総裁､基調物価が2％を上回ることは容認できない－利上げ継続

日本銀行の植田和男総裁は16日、基調物価が2%を上回ることは容認できない、との見解を示した。

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🇯🇵📊 TOKYO DECODER WEEKLY CLOSE (1/7): Global macro wrap for the week ending October 17, 2026. JGB yield curve shifts, BOJ policy transmission, cross-currency flows, and sovereign relative value. A quantitative synthesis of the Tokyo trading week. Thread 🧵👇 #JGB #USDJPY
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6/7 📈 EQUITIES & COMMODITIES: • Nikkei 225: 65,324 (-5.37% 1W) • Brent Crude: $109.86/bbl (+4.91% 1W) • Gold: $4,181.1/oz (-0.83% 1W) Import cost dynamics continue to influence Japanese terms of trade and corporate pass-through. #Nikkei #Commodities
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7/7 📅 THE WEEK AHEAD (TOKYO FOCUS): • MOF JGB auctions & liquidity supply • Key Japanese wage & CPI indicators • BOJ policy board speech schedule Quantitative wires & morning bells resume Monday. Have a great weekend. #JGB #BOJ
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Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 retweeted
FinancialJuice
@financialjuiceOct 16
BoJ's Governor Ueda: The G20 discussed impact of MidEast, AI on economy.
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Yuto Haga ⚽️
@Yuto_HeadlineOct 16
*植田日銀総裁：基調物価が2%からこれ以上、上がることは容認できない＝Bloomberg *UEDA: CAN'T TOLERATE UNDERLYING INFLATION FURTHER ABOVE 2% - BBG
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First Squawk
@FirstSquawkOct 16
BOJ'S GOVERNOR UEDA: UNDERLYING INFLATION QUITE CLOSE TO 2% MARKS THE POLICY SHIFT
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Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 retweeted
First Squawk
@FirstSquawkOct 16
BOJ'S GOVERNOR UEDA: THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THE NEUTRAL RATE IS AROUND ANY PARTICULAR LEVEL
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片山財務相、米財務省と連携し、秩序ある為替市場の維持に取り組む bloomberg.com/jp/news/articl…

片山財務相、米財務省と連携し、秩序ある為替市場の維持に取り組む

片山さつき財務相は16日、円安水準が続いていることを受け、「米財務省と連携し、秩序ある為替市場の維持に取り組みたい」との考えを示した。参院予算委員会で答弁した。

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🇯🇵💼 片山財務相：G20で市場動向を注視すべき Finance Minister Katayama urges G20 members to monitor financial markets with urgency, signaling heightened MoF vigilance on recent FX volatility and potential policy coordination. #USDJPY #MOF
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🇯🇵📊 日本のコアCPI、BOJ目標を上回る水準へ Japan core inflation likely breached the BOJ's target, reinforcing expectations for further policy normalization and upward pressure on JGB yields. #BOJ #JGB
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🇯🇵📊 8月鉱工業生産指数は低下、BOJの利上げ判断に影響へ August industrial production contracts, complicating the BOJ's path toward further policy normalization as output gaps remain under scrutiny. #JGB #BOJ
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🇯🇵🔔 東京市場オープン | TOKYO OPEN • USD/JPY: 155.45 (-254.6 pips 1D) • 10Y JGB: 3.015% (-0.4 bps 1D; 2s10s at +109bps) #JGB #USDJPY
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BOJ Board Member Koeda just delivered a hawkish speech in Kumamoto, confirming the overnight call rate is ~1.25% and estimating Japan's nominal neutral rate is "considerably above 1%" (range: 1.1% - 2.5%). She warned against being "overly cautious" on future hikes.
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The BOJ also formalized its QT glide path: JGB purchases will be tapered by ¥200bn/quarter until March 2027. From April 2027, purchases will be capped at a flat ¥2tn/month, ensuring redemptions structurally exceed purchases for years to come.
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With the yen losing its safe-haven buffer and AI/geopolitics driving structural inflation, the BOJ is shifting to an active tightening bias. Read the full breakdown of the new policy parameters on Tokyo Decoder Substack. [Link]
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