$RKLB - Clear Street Report: Key Points: Reset outlook. We pushed our Neutron launch schedule back three quarters, from a 4Q26E first flight to 3Q27E, and left Electron and Space Systems unchanged. By 2030E, Neutron reaches 15 launches instead of 20 which cuts Neutron revenue to $871M from $1,162M and total revenue by 9%. Our 2030E adj. EBITDA falls to $900M from $1,076M, about $176M or 16% lower. A near-term setback in a growing market. The Neutron delay trims near- term revenue and extends cash burn, but the long-term opportunity is getting bigger, not smaller. Demand for medium-to-heavy lift is outrunning supply, and SpaceX (SPCX, Buy) is reportedly not taking Falcon 9 bookings beyond 2028, leaving customers few alternatives. Electron and Space Systems continue to perform, and getting Neutron right favors long-term reliability over a rushed debut. The payoff is still worth the wait. RKLB/IRDM deal impact. In our assessment, the Iridium (IRDM, Neutral) deal should not weigh on today’s trading. With RKLB below the $67.50 collar floor, the exchange ratio is fixed at 0.4 RKLB shares per IRDM share, and the stock component is capped at ~42M shares, so we do not see the structure adding mechanical pressure on RKLB holders. We attribute today’s weakness mostly to the Neutron slip. IRDM completes the full stack: We remain positive on the deal’s synergies. Pairing RKLB’s launch and satellite manufacturing with IRDM’s L-band spectrum, ~2.5M subscribers, and ~$500M of EBITDA would create a vertically integrated space operator if it closes (expected mid-2027, pending regulatory approvals)