TimelessBeing

Markets move on positional flows Whatever narrative you think is already priced in is usually just the market walking toward max pain and the path of least resistance When we gapped up a few weeks back, it wasn’t Bessent’s signal to the bond market or the debasement thesis suddenly taking center stage. It was overcrowded shorts, ripe for the picking Look at the tape now: bonds breaking, oil ripping, credit spreads slowly starting to widen, volatility still suppressed. Something will hit and trigger a messy flush of selling. You’ll call it a Black Swan. The market has already been telling you it wants to mean revert lower Circular reasoning is a curse

This crab back and fourth is engineered to throw you out of sync and make you question your decision making by design the market is here to make the majority of participants feel and look like idiots if you stuck your neck out and actually took a short in this range, you know it hasn't been easy for starters you are fighting a local uptrend where there is reflexive bid and we don't have momentum to the downside (YET!) If you survived and have your positions in place, you have done well The best is yet to come TIs Game Time Baby #BTC

I am open to us sweeping the yearly open As we say in markets need to be open to everything and any scenario I am just not putting it as my base case scenario I went through and cherry picked some consolidations on the 4 hour where multiple attempts at supply eventually led to a loss in momentum and a -10% drop All these examples occured post ETF launch as price action and flow very much changed as a consequence As you can see tops are a process and take a lot more patience than most are willing to admit Also text book headfakes above key swing points don't always happen and for such I am willing to take a stop out if I am indeed correct on my prognosis of distribution here $BTC