Sustainability researcher (air pollution, climate change, energy, transport, built environment, public health, behaviour change) Views not necessarily my own!
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ALT US COVID-19 heat map dated 19 October 2026, produced by the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC), using CDC wastewater data last updated 10 October. - Outbreaks: At least 44 US states and territories experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks. - Western US: Widespread very high activity, particularly California, Oregon, Washington and neighbouring states. - Southeast: Extensive high to very high activity across Florida, Georgia, Alabama and the Carolinas. - Northeast: Numerous high-activity areas, particularly along the Atlantic coast. - Midwest: Mixed activity, ranging from very low to very high. - Estimated infectious prevalence: Very low: below 0.9%; Low: 1.2%; Moderate: 2.0%; High: 2.9%; Very high: above 3.5%. - Trend: PMC reports an apparent secondary peak following upward CDC data revisions. - Map colours: Pale blue, green, orange, red and purple indicate increasing activity levels.
ALT Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) National COVID-19 Estimates for the United States, dated 19 October 2026, showing modelled infections, Long COVID cases and excess deaths. - Actively infectious: 1 in 57 Americans (1.7%). - New daily infections: 858,000. - Infections in the past week: 6.16 million. - Total infections in 2026: 151 million. - Cumulative infections per person: 5.61. - Estimated Long COVID cases from daily infections: 43,000–172,000. - Estimated Long COVID cases from weekly infections: 308,000–1.23 million. - Estimated excess deaths resulting from daily infections: 210–370. - Estimated excess deaths resulting from weekly infections: 1,500–2,600. All figures are PMC model estimates, not confirmed case counts. Source: PMC COVID-19 Model, pmc19.com, 19 October 2026.
ALT Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) COVID-19 State Prevalence Estimates, 19 October 2026, showing estimated infectious prevalence and transmission risk across 25 US states and territories. - Highest prevalence: Mississippi 6.3% (1 in 16), Florida 5.2% (1 in 19), Hawaii 4.8% (1 in 21) and California 4.7% (1 in 21). - Other high estimates: Georgia 3.9%, Connecticut 3.6%, Maryland 3.5%, Guam 4.3%, Kentucky 3.3% and Delaware 3.2%. - Lowest prevalence: Arizona and Minnesota 0.5%, Michigan 0.8%, Indiana 0.8%, Illinois and Iowa 0.9%. - Room transmission risk: In Mississippi, estimated probability of at least one infectious person is 48% in a room of 10, 81% in 25, 96% in 50 and over 99% in 100. - CDC classifications: Standard and revised levels shown side by side. - Note: CDC categories were revised downwards in August 2026. Some states have limited data. All figures are model estimates, not confirmed infections.
ALT Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) COVID-19 State Prevalence Estimates, 19 October 2026, showing estimated infectious prevalence and transmission risk across 27 US states and territories. - Highest prevalence: Oregon 6.7% (1 in 15), Washington 6.0% (1 in 17), US Virgin Islands 5.3% (1 in 19) and Puerto Rico 4.8% (1 in 21). - Other high estimates: Tennessee 4.4%, Montana and South Carolina 3.6%, North Carolina 3.1% and New Jersey 2.8%. - Lowest prevalence: New York, Ohio and Wyoming 0.5%, Oklahoma 0.5% and West Virginia 0.6%. - Room transmission risk: In Oregon, estimated probability of at least one infectious person is 50% in a room of 10, 82% in 25, 97% in 50 and over 99% in 100. - CDC classifications: Standard and revised levels shown side by side. - Note: CDC categories were revised downwards in August 2026. Some states have limited reporting. All figures are model estimates, not confirmed infections.
ALT NY TIMES Long Covid as Russian Roulette Doctors tend to be more concerned about the chance that someone will develop long Covid from repeated infections than they are that a person will get very sick in the acute phase of the illness. Covid can cause long-term damage to nearly every part of the body and repeated cases can compound those harms. A number of studies have shown that each time someone contracts Covid introduces an opportunity to develop long-term symptoms. Researchers often compare it to Russian roulette: Any infection could be the one that leads to long Covid. “Every time there’s a wave, there’s another wave that’s going to follow with patients developing new onset long Covid,” said Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University.
