Minerals, metals, energy and climate @EurasiaGroup Formerly @washingtonpost @WSJ @TribLIVE “He seems well-meaning and is not terribly annoying." Views my own

Washington, DC
Joined May 2013
Tim Puko retweeted
Permitting reform? “I'm just not going to devote whatever few brain cells I have left to something that's not going to happen,” Kennedy says after GOP lunch
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I had never heard this name before and I don't even know what to say.
Rick Rescorla. Every American should know his name. He single-handedly saved almost 10,000 lives that day, while sacrificing his own trying to save even one more.
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Tim Puko retweeted
The war began in February under the premise that the US could accomplish regime change in Iran with a 3-day offensive. Its latest chapter looks likely to end in August with a deal that acknowledges Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz.
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Tim Puko retweeted
3/1: "four to five weeks" 3/9: "very soon" 3/16: "won't be long" 3/23: "very good and productive conversations" 3/26: talks to end the war are “going very well" 3/29: "I think we'll make a deal with them, pretty sure" 4/1: “very shortly” 4/6: "They’ve made a proposal, and it’s a significant proposal." 4/8: ""A big day for World Peace!" 5/18: "we’ve had very big discussions with Iran" 5/23: "will be announced shortly." 6/1: "rapid pace" 6/11: "next few days"
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Replying to @Brad_Setser
Without precedent. Japan in its peak year exported 6 million, half as many as China will export this year.
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Tim Puko retweeted
Just because it's a bad idea doesn't mean they won't try to do it.
about the only thing left would be export restrictions- something that would be absolutely chilling to future refining output and U.S. oil production growth. the long-term damage from that would be significant.
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Tim Puko retweeted
outrageous. media companies need to find a way to get info out faster than in print. perhaps a way to publish instantaneously, and in a manner that could be updated as news develops. and what if, someday, you could somehow get the articles without having to go to a newsstand?
This seemed so outrageous (even for the NYT) that I wanted to verify it I went and got a physical copy and took this photo The shooting was at 8:34pm ET on Saturday night Is this not enough time to get the story in print? If not, then how is this “news”?
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Tim Puko retweeted
it looks bad for the us president to threaten genocide
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Good to push back on this. If a food crisis is to develop it would be associated with the 2027 crops not the 2026 crops. And then it would have to be a combination of skyrocketing fertilizer prices not matched by increases in crop prices.
Key food commodity prices since US-Iran war started: 🍚 Rice: ⬇️ -6.3% 🌾 Wheat: ⬇️ -0.5% 🥫 Soybean: ⬆️ +0.6% 🌽 Corn: ⬆️ +2.7% As with everything else in this war, all depends on escalation. But talk about a "food crisis" or a "food shock" is premature.
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It's crazy that @gbrew24, someone who's basically spent his entire life studying to be an expert for this exact moment, doesn't have like 10x the followers as he does.
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Tim Puko retweeted
Not all the Gulf states are equally affected by the Hormuz closure. Saudi is exporting 5-7m bpd out of Yanbu, at prices 80% above where they were a few months ago. UAE and Oman can get barrels out around Hormuz. Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq are screwed, tho.
This quoted post is unavailable.
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Tim Puko retweeted
“… Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long…” (Financial warfare in the age of social media; next he’s going to start his own Substack blog or even a podcast)
Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.
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Tim Puko retweeted
NEW: President Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran. Trump hasn’t made a decision on whether to give the order, the officials said, adding that he is considering the danger to U.S. troops.
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RT @ianbremmer: 6:49am: sudden spike in oil futures trading. no news. no announcement. nothing public. 7:05am: trump announces a pause on i…
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Tim Puko retweeted
Really need to stress this point. Iran is not yet going all-out against the strait. It could choose to do so, unless the US removes its ability to escalate, which would likely need weeks more bombing at a minimum.
On point No. 3, there are already discussions in Tehran that this could lead to a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, particularly through mining of the waterway. Once again, a reminder that the strait is not yet technically "closed," but selectively disrupted by #Iran.
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The U.S. is not bombing the Iranian oil infrastructure, but Saudi Arabia and the UAE likely will if theirs is attacked.
Reports coming in that Iranian fire has hit an Emirati offshore oil platform in the Gulf. Would be a direct attack on the Gulf's energy infrastructure.
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Tim Puko retweeted
This is probably a big reason he didn’t bring Lighthizer, a careful lawyer, back for the second term. Trump didn’t want constraints.
In Chokepoints, I wrote about how Bob Lighthizer was hyper-vigilant about potential legal challenges to Trump’s tariffs during the first term. That’s why he used Sec 301, not IEEPA The second Trump admin has been far less careful
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Much of the mourning for the late great @washingtonpost has rightly focused on how democracy dies in darkness at the national level, which is hugely important. But the evisceration of Metro coverage is every bit as devastating because there is no comparable news outlet keeping local governments and institutions honest. Eight of my 20 years at the Post were spent on Metro, which was the heart and soul of the Post under the legendary @dongrahamdc1. The undertakers now running the paper have all but wiped out the metro staff, leaving just 12 reporters, according to reports, to cover a region of 6.5 million people. We had twice that many journalists in Fairfax alone back in the day. And it mattered. Reporters are the eyes and ears of the community, keeping tabs on people in power. We were there for every supervisors meeting, every school board meeting. We pored through planning commission documents and campaign filings. When county officials wasted taxpayer money, raised taxes on overstretched homeowners, gave sweetheart zoning deals to developers who filled their election coffers, we were there. When teachers who sexually abused students were quietly transferred to other schools to do it all over again, we were there. We were there for the more uplifting stories too, the cops who broke a cold case, the educators who turned around a struggling school, the residents who rallied to help neighbors in trouble, the student athletes who won the big game, the entrepreneurs who started something new. Our friend @SariHorwitz who has won more Pulitzers than I can count, wrote so movingly online about the Post (facebook.com/share/p/1AZLTTD…). To recognize how indispensable local coverage is, you need only look at her holy-shit investigations of a broken child welfare system, rampant police shootings and the corporate-fed opioid crisis, stories that opened eyes and led to change. Democracy is not just what happens at the White House and the Capitol but in our own backyards. The Post has just turned the lights down at home too.
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