Tim May

I still don’t think many people have clocked how massive this story actually is. Thames Water is carrying £19.8bn of debt, up 2 billion in a single year, and it will run out of money before Christmas. £19.8bn against 16 million people who cannot switch, can’t leave, and cannot stop drinking water. That’s about £1,240 per head. 5 grand for a family of four. In some way, shape, or form, they’re on the hook for it. That’s the part that I don’t think has landed yet. This isn’t a story about sewage in the Thames, or bonuses, or another regulator caught asleep. The actual event is 30 years of a monopoly being used as collateral by people who knew its customers could never walk away. The bill has now come due… and it’s a big one. The pipes and the infrastructure were never the real asset. The 16 million captive water drinkers were. What’s going to really sting is the fact there’s only two ways this gets settled. Your bill goes up, substantially, or your taxes do. Most likely both, and it’ll be on a schedule designed in a way so you don’t notice the hit, in an attempt to suppress the rage you should rightly be feeling. And before anyone tells me the creditors are taking a 30% haircut, look at what they’ve asked for in return. Fines waived until 2030. Pollution targets “significantly modified.” Bills raised above what the regulator allows. That isn’t exactly them eating the loss now, is it. That’s them buying a regulatory holiday, on debt most of them bought at distressed prices. Nobody voted for this, nobody borrowed it, and nobody saw the benefit of it. The debt was loaded onto a captive customer base over 30 years and paid out to shareholders who have long since gone. 16 million people are about to find out that they co-signed something they were completely unaware of. Now, this is what should worry us all. Thames isn’t a rogue outlier, it’s just the first one to fully hit the wall. English water carries north of £60bn of debt. Southern is already junk rated, needed a £1.2bn rescue from its shareholders, and its customers are looking at a 48% bill rise this decade before you count what the CMA added on top. Every one of these companies borrowed heavily when money was free and now have to refinance it all in a world where it isn’t, while being told to spend billions on infrastructure they left rotting for 30 years. Thames is just the first and most visible of what will likely end up being a line of dominoes. Maybe Burnham nationalises Thames Water. But ask yourself… how many more will need to be nationalised? And who do you think pays for that?