@TimMJoslin

Economics, politics, geopolitics, climate change, chess. Independent thinker blogging at https://xitter.cf/t.co/NzKfnbJ45M . Likes, follows, even RTs, don't imply endorsement.

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timjoslin.org/
Joined March 2020
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The Met Office suggest in their report that summer 2026 was a 1 in 9 year event for the UK. 1/4
Met Office
@metofficeSep 1
Summer 2026 is provisionally the UK’s warmest summer on record with the season’s mean temperature made around 130 times more likely due to human-induced climate change. Here, we delve into the numbers 🧵
Mean temperature for 2026 in the UK. The map shows widely above average temperature, particularly in the south.

ALT Mean temperature for 2026 in the UK. The map shows widely above average temperature, particularly in the south.

Rainfall amounts in summer 2026 in the UK compared to average. The maps shows widely dry conditions, though the west of Scotland is slightly wetter than average

ALT Rainfall amounts in summer 2026 in the UK compared to average. The maps shows widely dry conditions, though the west of Scotland is slightly wetter than average

Sunshine duration in summer 2026 compared to average. The map shows widely sunny conditions in the season, with the south of the country particularly sunny.

ALT Sunshine duration in summer 2026 compared to average. The map shows widely sunny conditions in the season, with the south of the country particularly sunny.

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This is clearer when a graph is plotted of deviations from trend. 3/4
Compiled from Met Office data

ALT Compiled from Met Office data

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See timjoslin.org/index.php/2026… for a little more detail. 4/4
Comment by AI Gemini

ALT Comment by AI Gemini

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Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 retweeted
Met Office
@metofficeSep 1
Summer 2026 is provisionally the UK’s warmest summer on record with the season’s mean temperature made around 130 times more likely due to human-induced climate change. Here, we delve into the numbers 🧵
Mean temperature for 2026 in the UK. The map shows widely above average temperature, particularly in the south.

ALT Mean temperature for 2026 in the UK. The map shows widely above average temperature, particularly in the south.

Rainfall amounts in summer 2026 in the UK compared to average. The maps shows widely dry conditions, though the west of Scotland is slightly wetter than average

ALT Rainfall amounts in summer 2026 in the UK compared to average. The maps shows widely dry conditions, though the west of Scotland is slightly wetter than average

Sunshine duration in summer 2026 compared to average. The map shows widely sunny conditions in the season, with the south of the country particularly sunny.

ALT Sunshine duration in summer 2026 compared to average. The map shows widely sunny conditions in the season, with the south of the country particularly sunny.

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Summer (June - August) 2026 is the hottest by a huge amount - about 0.8C - over 2025(!) in the Central England Temperature (CET) record which goes back to 1659. Nevertheless, I expect we'll see an even hotter UK summer by (say) 2040. #globalwarming timjoslin.org/index.php/2026…
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Interesting. The Justgiving page (referenced in the article) still exists as well: justgiving.com/fundraising/j… (Quote tweet because @peterjukes doesn't allow me to reply 🙄)

30 Marathons in 35 Days

Help Jason Arday raise money to support The Shooting Star Children's Hospice

justgiving.com
Peter Jukes@peterjukesAug 17
Replying to @derJamesJackson
You seriously think this report and photos from 16 years ago was confected Karen Peffer, Shooting Star’s challenge events fundraiser, said: “…it is a real privilege to have someone so unique and inspirational fundraising for our charity” richmondandtwickenhamtimes.c…

College lecturer completes marathon challenge

Jason Arday completes 30 marathons in 35 days for Shelter and the Shooting Star Children’s Hospice.

richmondandtwickenhamtimes.co.uk
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Looks like 38C is clearly possible today xitter.cf/TimMJoslin/status/2087…
Met Office
@metofficeAug 13
Temperatures have now provisionally exceeded 37°C 🌡️ Before 2026, the UK had recorded 37°C or higher on only six occasions. This year alone, we've already reached that mark three times.
A table of top temperatures so far. The highest currently at 37.6°C at Charlwood.

ALT A table of top temperatures so far. The highest currently at 37.6°C at Charlwood.

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I hope people realise that if we break 38C today it'll be in the top few hottest days ever recorded in GB, not just the hottest this summer (assuming we exceed the 38.0C on 26th June). See this rapidly dating chart from the Met Office 👇
From the Met Office, July 2022 (link broken - original document offline?)

ALT From the Met Office, July 2022 (link broken - original document offline?)

Tim Joslin 🇺🇦@TimMJoslinAug 12
This is getting ridiculous. Until 1990 the UK max was a mere 36.7C in 1911. 1990s 37.1C max was only exceeded in 2003 with 38.5C. See the Met Office's chart included in timjoslin.org/index.php/2022… shortly after we broke 40C. You'd think the climate was changing or something!
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Yes, @MetOffice, in the Central England Temperature (CET) record, estimating August mean at 18.5C (my current best guess) it also looks like 2026 will be easily the hottest summer (also averaging 18.5C) on record (since 1659). #globalwarming metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/w…
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This is getting ridiculous. Until 1990 the UK max was a mere 36.7C in 1911. 1990s 37.1C max was only exceeded in 2003 with 38.5C. See the Met Office's chart included in timjoslin.org/index.php/2022… shortly after we broke 40C. You'd think the climate was changing or something!
UK Weather Updates
@UKWX_Aug 11
High resolution AROME is now in range of Thursday. It suggests temperatures peaking at 38°C in west Gloucestershire and Home Counties. What is again remarkable, is the spread of mid 30s, which on the AROME model extends all the way to Durham.
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After a considerable amount of (albeit amateur) poring over the data, especially the 1659-date Central England Temperature (CET) record, I suggest summer 2026 is still not as hot as it could get in the UK under the current climate regime. 1/4
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And, unless late August and September 2026 are exceptionally hot, 2026 overall won't be among the very most anomalously hot summers in the CET, such as 1826, 1846, 1911 and 1976, which were not (or were at least less) influenced by global warming: timjoslin.org/index.php/2026… 3/4
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Very tentative conclusion: so far summer 2026 is a once in 10 to (at most) 20 year event in the current climate regime, rather than a once in 50 to 100 year event. Of course, these odds will shorten as global warming continues! 4/4
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I thought it was just me who thought that goal was going to be chalked off, like Zico's for Egypt against Argentina. You can bet Argentina would have gone crazy if England had scored a goal like that. Pathetic capitulation by England. theguardian.com/football/liv…

England 1-2 Argentina: World Cup 2026 semi-final – as it happened

Late goals from Enzo Fernández and Lautaro Martínez shattered England, who ran out of steam after taking the lead

theguardian.com
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Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 retweeted
Hold The Line@LabHoldthelineJun 21
A statment from us.
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When I wrote in May that "...temperatures [in the UK] as high as 38C are possible before the end of June..." I wasn't really expecting that to happen this year! Met Office forecast👇 #heatwave #canicule timjoslin.org/index.php/2026…
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Spring 2026 was the hottest in entire Central England Temperature (CET) record from 1659. 2nd hottest? 2025. 3rd hottest? 2024! Graph with 5, 11 and 21 year running means, also all records: timjoslin.org/index.php/2026…
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At 35.1C, 26th May 2026 has been hotter than it has been in the UK on any date until 31(!) days later (26th June 1976 was hotter); at one point 1st July 2015 was hotter than until 33(!!) days later. Heatwaves are hotter now! timjoslin.org/index.php/2017… xitter.cf/TimMJoslin/status/2059…
Tim Joslin 🇺🇦@TimMJoslinMay 26
Had to write about the ridiculous heat and update my list of UK highest temperature date records (hottest so early in the year): timjoslin.org/index.php/2026… Moral: prepare for worse!
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