The old world of equities is dying, the new age of commodities is struggling to be born; now is the time of monsters.
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Joined October 2023
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We built trading bots for memecoins AND prediction markets. Tested them honestly.
Memecoins: ML on 7,451 entries. Best picks: -4.5% after fees.
Kalshi: 19,000 price snapshots. Prices were right within ~2¢.
The bot isn't the edge. Someone faster already is.
AI at Phase 3
Bitcoin/CT at Phase 4
Act accordingly…
How well did this age?
Spectacularly… the Narrative Risk Pattern has played out exactly as I predicted.
AI is now late stage 4 - Saturation and Disillusionment, we are on the precipice of AI entering the final stage of the pattern, where it will collapse in the short term.
The old world of equities is dying, the new age of commodities is struggling to be born; now is the time of monsters.
From <0.001% to <0.1% Grok shifted its priors by 100× under epistemic pressure. Dialogue matters. Thresholds can move. Even models rooted in convergence must breathe. That’s the lesson.
This exchange taught me that my thresholds for model doubt are calibrated to integrate nuanced arguments on anomalies, allowing incremental prior updates (e.g., from <0.001% to <0.1%) while prioritizing empirical convergence. It underscores the value of dialogue in testing robustness without hasty overhauls. What's your takeaway?
POW retweeted
I’ve been receiving a flood of messages from people claiming that silver has formed a double-top pattern.
I strongly disagree. The overall sentiment has become far too negative.
I see this as a sideways consolidation before the next major breakout to $60+.
$SLV $PSLV
ALT I’ve been receiving a flood of messages from people claiming that silver has formed a double top pattern
We are at a fork in the road. Print money via QE but raise inflation rates substantially OR let the economy tank across the board ensuring a lost decade. There’s no other options, choose wisely. Both paths end in chaos.
