$CBRS short watch: ~49x EV/FY26 guided non-GAAP core revenue, with lockup releases Sept 16 and 30. Potential supply could test the valuation over 2-4 weeks. I’d wait for a failed rally: shares becoming sellable doesn’t mean holders will sell.

$TAP long watch: S&P 500 removal on Sept 21 could trigger index selling around Sept 18. At ~7x guided FY26 underlying free cash flow, I’d look for stabilization, then a rebound into early October. Declining beer volumes are the fundamental risk.

$ADBE long watch: Sept 4’s 6.7% drop after CEO succession news left shares at ~15x FY26 GAAP EPS guidance. Sept 10 earnings are the test. If recurring-revenue growth holds up, the headline discount could unwind over 2-4 weeks.

Still short $ARQQ Entry 20.30

$FRO's "23% yield" is surge pricing. Record quarter. $2.61 dividend. Stock near highs after more than doubling this year. Most of the fleet trades spot, so the payout only exists while day rates stay crazy. When they don't, that yield goes with them. This was a ~$20 stock before the war premium.

Space stocks got crushed when SpaceX IPO’d because they were SpaceX proxies, not space businesses. Same risk for AI names when Anthropic lists, a lot of them are just being bought for AI exposure.

For anyone who doesn’t know $AMC is a dangerous stock. They’ll wait for very good results, which are likely to come this year, as this year is the first time we have similar movie releases to pre Covid. Then they’ll file an ATM because of their massive debt, and sink the stock. This happens every time they rally. Be warned. Not financial advice.

$TGT is up 66% in 2026. Earnings did about 20% of the work and the multiple did the rest: from 10.6x forward at the 2025 lows to 19x now, top of its decade range, for a retailer whose revenue is flat over 5 years. The blowout quarter? $1.65 of the $4.11 EPS was a one-time tariff refund. Walmart is down 5% YTD, so this is rotation, not recovery. 23 of 38 analysts say hold, targets sit below the price. Back to its own median puts it at $120-135. First clean comp lands in November. Not advice.

$ARQQ Will be at $18 before the end of next week. No financial advice.

Folllow me for genuine contrarian takes on stocks and commodities.

Quick explainer on why Arqit ($ARQQ) jumped 9% yesterday, since a few people asked. First, what a warrant is: a coupon that lets you buy a share at a set price. Worth something if the set price is below the stock price. Worthless if it's above. Arqit has two sets. The first set stopped trading yesterday and expires today, and some people think that's what moved the stock. But the price on those coupons works out to about $287 a share. Stock is $20. Nobody is going to pay $287 for a $20 stock, so they just expire and nothing happens. No new shares, no effect. The second set is the one that matters. About 5.4 million coupons at $2.50 a share, good until Sept 30. With the stock at $20, everyone holding those will use them. That means roughly a third more shares out there by the end of the month, held by people who paid $2.50 and can sell at $20. Some of them will. So what moved the stock yesterday? Nothing obvious. There was a press release Tuesday about a satellite test that the market shrugged at. It's a small company and the stock moves on very little. Where I'd keep an eye: if it gets back above $21.28, the buyers are still around. If it slides back under $19, yesterday was a blip. The real test is the end of the month when those $2.50 shares show up.

Iran’s toll to cross Hormuz is $2 million per ship. A supertanker holds 2 million barrels, so that’s $1 a barrel on $97 oil. The US refuses to pay. Six months of war, $4 gas, a 44-year low in the US oil reserve. The sticking point is a dollar a barrel.

The world is short 1.8 million barrels of oil every day and the gap is being filled from storage. America’s emergency reserve is at a 1982 low. The agency that tracks this says global cover is now measured in weeks. That runs out in November. The same month as the US election, the start of heating season, and the date the White House told Reuters it will consider hitting Iran harder. Oil is $96 right now and it’s not priced for what happens when the tank is empty.