Just catching up in Shanghai and taking a closer look at Jodar. Incredible returning at the start. but looking at his 52-week data, of the six serve locations, there's one that generates a Jodar short return far more often — about 10% more than the others: deuce body. He only gets 20% deep here. All other 5 locations he gets at least 30% deep. Makes sense given his aggressive position and rangy physique. Data and analysis courtesy of Courtside Advantage

Agreed on this, although one difference this fortnight (and today) that was impressive in the first set was how big Zverev’s second serve was just for pure ball speed and bounce. This is by-hand point-by-point note taking, so maybe not 100% accurate, but my URS breakdown:

The Rome Masters starts today and will conclude next Sunday -- 11 days from now. No seeds play today or tomorrow. Day's 1 and 2 are essentially a challenger schedule. Go to Day's 3 and 4 and you get to watch the seeds play a non-seed. Reminder that Day 4 of the 2012 Rome Masters was this:

Starting research for an in-depth post on the serve. My process is always: Watch pros who struggle —> watch pros who do it well —> hit balls —> record film —> read the literature —> record with own tweaks —> note feels/outcomes —> look for gaps in lit —> watch more pros…

What do you make of David Hart’s argument? (if you’re familiar with it) my understanding: that as the meaning of a text increases, the ability to predict its syntactic sequence decreases

yep. Here's futures data from 2019 I used in an article from a while back

Just as important is available tournament offerings too. hughclarke.substack.com/p/mo…

2nd serve return contact points for Paul (left) and Lehecka vs Fils in Miami from Courtside Advantage. I was a little surprised Paul didn't look to take his 2nd return early against the longer swings of Fils stuck on a baseline. Fils won 69% of 2nd serve points vs Paul.

I touched on this in Indian Wells but Sinner's step change in serve accuracy ~Paris last year is such a scary prospect. He's *consistently* locating 1st serves 46cm from the line at 124mph. That's 5mph faster AND 5cm more accurate than Djoker.

TI Includes errors with their landing spots. In 2026 Musetti has made 6% more 1st returns, but Fritz hits returns 7mph harder and takes them earlier. So many nuances to consider. Here's one I. thought of: Short answer, Musetti breaks more because he's a much better baseliner

youtu.be/3b_X9iY2U2g?si=USJD… This was great

@TennisTV why isn’t Tien/Sinner available to watch on the mobile app??

It’s not as obvious as Sampras or Delpo but still a significant chunk of index knuckle/heel pad on bevel 3 youtu.be/kSV7UxyLuQo?si=MTCW…

Shelton happy to give up the Ad-side T-serve to Humbert's unique wide position. I think that's a good call. Your 'T' target is much smaller from out wide: the ball is 'out' from that trajectory until it is very deep in the service box

Under pressure (which is any point leading to a break point, break point itself, and any point in a tie-break), Sinner's deuce T preference jumps to nearly 60%! This is up from his 42% in 2024/early 2025: