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Volatility is shrinking over the years.
There wasn’t a blow off top last year, why bet on max capitulation below $50k now?
Happy to be 90% allocated already with an average price of $63k BTC.
If we’re going to see a new ATH which is 2x+ from here, why should I be hyper fixated on getting 10% more discount before buying and risk missing the train?
Exposing one of the biggest scammers in the space:
@Mattertrades
He dm's members of his private group and gets them to directly send him funds so he "trades for them"
Then keeps the money and either ghost or blocks them
I have found over 30 victims so far
Over $500k stolen
Thinker retweeted
Yup.
Pepe is an insanely straightforward and desirable play, yet people HATE it. Ditto that to a large degree for Fartcoin/useless/etc, but Pepe is unique because of its eth origins
The downside risk is a known quantity (observe it over the 1y bear market, or arguable 2y for alts). It’s difficult to understate how valuable that is.
The upside isn’t 100x, but it’s massive:
Eth whales want beta, and they want beta with liquidity. Pepe is multi-B. There is really little to no other beta. What else? Defi governance tokens?
When eth moved 20% in august, Pepe moved 80%. That ratio has more or less held.
Pepe is basically unliquidatable 4x levered eth that can probably overshoot that ratio massively during a blowoff
Thesis is simple:
Frogs jump
few thoughts on $PEPE
I believe its put in a long term, multi year bottom this year
560 days from the top to the recent June low
PEPE is a lindy meme. it's widely loved. great ETH beta. its liquid, does tons of volume
tens of thousands of memes launch every day and go to 0. sure a few runners spawn out of the graveyard of shit. but i think this cycle, big money will bid the liquid, lindy memes
can see this trading back to all time highs with enough patience. i have a bag
few thoughts on $PEPE
I believe its put in a long term, multi year bottom this year
560 days from the top to the recent June low
PEPE is a lindy meme. it's widely loved. great ETH beta. its liquid, does tons of volume
tens of thousands of memes launch every day and go to 0. sure a few runners spawn out of the graveyard of shit. but i think this cycle, big money will bid the liquid, lindy memes
can see this trading back to all time highs with enough patience. i have a bag
Thinker retweeted
Bitcoin is the greatest intellectual puzzle of all times.
It's completely open source.
Anyone can copy it.
Or try to change it.
But none of those tweaks has any real value.
Meanwhile, over the last 16 years, Bitcoin has gone up one million times.
Making it the top asset class of all asset classes.
And its price and adoption follow a precise power law.
With 96% correlation.
It is on path to absorbing all value in the Solar System.
Completely crushing the entire stock market.
The bond market.
Gold.
Real Estate.
And it does this with no earnings.
No "intrinsic value".
It can't be stopped or banned.
It can be ignored, but the adoption keeps increasing.
In Bull Markets and Bears.
It is something fundamental like language.
Or fire.
Or electricity.
An inevitable discovery that will take civilisation to the next level.
It’s not a matter of if, but when.
$BTC is not going back to $60K.
Bear market bottoms almost always front run major liquidity.
The most likely scenario is that we eventually take the liquidity above after plenty of hunts designed to make everyone shit themselves first.
Thinker retweeted
One of the most important trading quotes I ever read changed the way I looked at why traders lose, and I think most people miss what it’s actually saying.
The idea is basically this…
Losing traders want different results. Winning traders are willing to become different people.
Most people want the better strategy. The better indicator. The better market. The better mentor. Anything that lets them keep thinking, reacting, and behaving exactly the same while somehow getting a completely different result.
But if you overtrade because you can’t sit still, another setup won’t fix you. If you move your stop because you hate being wrong, another indicator won’t fix you. If you chase because watching a move happen without you drives you crazy, the problem isn’t on the chart.
The problem is sitting in the chair.
At some point you have to be willing to say, “The person making these decisions is producing these results. Something in me has to change.”
That might mean more patience. Less ego. Better emotional control. Learning to do absolutely nothing when there’s nothing to do. Following your process when every part of you wants to abandon it.
Changing yourself isn’t what happens after you become successful. Being willing to change is part of how you become successful.
That’s true far beyond trading.
A lot of people spend years asking for a different life while protecting the same habits, excuses, and behaviors that built the one they already have.
Sometimes the breakthrough isn’t finding something new. It’s finally becoming someone capable of producing a different result.
$BTC
Selling everything around 160K...
The first swing long and my average spot entry are 59.4/59.6K.
Second swing long: 76.2K.
The ones saying I'm wrong now will be the same ones saying I'm wrong then.
New lows aren't coming. The trend has shifted.
Those waiting for lower are sidelined in disbelief that they missed the bottom. Those in shorts are calling this another bear market rally, failing to realize that cycles are slowly changing and progressing faster.
It's not the time to be bearish.
Bottom is in.
See you at 160K.
why would i put any money in my second best idea
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Thinker retweeted
I asked Chat GPT, Claude, Grok and Gemini what the best money to own is.
Every single time: bitcoin
Thinker retweeted
what I find interesting is that the best plays this cycle have been the most obvious ones.
$Marscoin was obvious
$pons was obvious
$AI was the obvious long coin
and now $pons is a billion-dollar launchpad, while the most obvious 9fig main runner is sitting right in front of everyone $microduck.
it’s a believers market again, rotators are going to watch it rip 10x from here in real time while sitting on the sidelines wondering how you missed the most obvious trade in the room.
qwak qwak
RT @Crypto_Scient: solana:9BB6NFEcjBCtnNLFko2FqVQBq8HHM13kCyYcdQbgpump, I think this is good for a long playing the range.
Sweep + deviati…
Thinker retweeted
nobodies ready for the move $microduck is gonna pull
Thinker retweeted
another nice 0.618 tap on microduck here, perfect bounce zone
when solana:CTuw8xEE15hKi2yB9n8CoLDq8ZhBLVbh8ydcuN11pump leaves this range and breaks 25m i think it rerates to 100m real fast.
hitting 25m mcap in 3 days is a sign that this has plenty of attention.
my barometer for a coin being derisked is usually 20m or so and it hit that in under 3 days and already had the 0.618 pullback from the highs.
the co-founder is schizoposting microduck all day long and they sold 10400 robot pre orders in a week making microduck the biggest launch of a new consumer robot ever.
if you were following me on fomo you would have seen me blasting buys on this down at the 0.618 along with a longer thesis.
fomo.family/r/bluntz_capital
Thinker retweeted
the duck back at $20m is actually crazy work
i genuinely think sidelined mfs are being handed a generational entry on $microduck
nvidia acquired them
jensen posted about it
elon followed
and somehow people decided the tweet was the top lmao
brother the ducks haven’t even started landing in people’s homes yet
wait until shipments ramp, production scales and every timeline is filled with people showing off their little AI duck
you’re fading what could be the iphone moment for consumer robotics because the chart went down
billions will quack
one of my highest conviction holds right now is $microduck
i bought it near ATH around 15m because once i finally did my dd, the asymmetry looked obvious
this isn’t just another random AI meme
you’re betting on a physical AI/robotics product with Nvidia ties that people are already rushing to order
to me, it has that iPhone of robotics potential
once people start receiving them and timelines get flooded with videos, the meme basically markets itself
then you have the CEO repeatedly retweeting the coin page
$AI ran toward 300m
so why can’t something more visual, viral and normie-friendly reach the same parity?
people always understand the thesis after price validates it
at 10m nobody cared
at 30m they start getting it
at 100m they’ll say it was obvious
i still think 30m is hilariously mispriced
Thinker retweeted
Replying to @MemeKing500
The current SEC is completely asleep at the wheel. They’re also pretty aware of the need to move stocks and stablecoins onchain (creates demand for US Debt), so even if they were awake I think they’d still let it happen
Thinker retweeted
when solana:CTuw8xEE15hKi2yB9n8CoLDq8ZhBLVbh8ydcuN11pump leaves this range and breaks 25m i think it rerates to 100m real fast.
hitting 25m mcap in 3 days is a sign that this has plenty of attention.
my barometer for a coin being derisked is usually 20m or so and it hit that in under 3 days and already had the 0.618 pullback from the highs.
the co-founder is schizoposting microduck all day long and they sold 10400 robot pre orders in a week making microduck the biggest launch of a new consumer robot ever.
if you were following me on fomo you would have seen me blasting buys on this down at the 0.618 along with a longer thesis.
fomo.family/r/bluntz_capital
Thinker retweeted
I DON’T THINK PEOPLE REALIZE HOW MASSIVE THIS IS YET
@HuggingFace and @PollenRobotics just released Microduck.
It is a new legged robot for $399.
It passed $1 million in sales in under SEVEN hours 🤯
The hardware packs 15 actuators, a camera, and LiDAR into a 25 cm frame.
It weighs under 800 grams and runs for about an hour on a single charge.
Out of the box, it can
> walk
> roller-skate
> pick up objects
> recover from falls
.. and so much more!
You can drive the 7 shipped policies from the first boot using a gamepad.
But the real hook is the training stack.
The software is entirely open:
→ MuJoCo simulation and PPO training
→ 50 Hz onboard policy loop
→ Browser simulator included alongside hardware
→ Full control stack available on GitHub
The mechanical and electronic design files are still proprietary.
But don’t let the cute robotic duck fool you.
Under the closed chassis is a FULLY OPEN-SOURCE, hackable brain you can experiment with and build on.
Repo in 🧵↓































