On February 27, the day before the war began, US oil was at $66, US diesel at $3.76 a gallon, the diesel crack spread near $42, and markets were pricing three Fed rate cuts for 2026. Today US oil is above $102, US diesel at a record $6.31, the crack at an all-time high of $111, and the Fed has raised rates for the first time since 2023 on a unanimous vote, with one more hike in the dots and the ECB two hikes in. Saudi crude to Europe is cancelled through October, the East-West pipeline is shut, and Hormuz is closed. The cutting cycle markets priced in February has now turned into a hiking cycle, and rate cuts are off the table with oil above $100 and 3.4% inflation.