@TheEasyNotes

The Easy

Joined August 2021
Peter Thiel knows AI might kill us all. He still says accelerate. In a 65-minute conversation with Axel Springer's CEO, Thiel lays out why. The argument is more rigorous than it sounds: 1. The stagnation thesis Decades of technological slowdown have already been killing us — slowly, economically, politically. AI is the first genuine break in that pattern. 2. Slowing AI loses even at 10% extinction risk If Western democracies pump the brakes and China doesn't, you haven't reduced risk — you've just handed the outcome to a different actor. The math on deceleration only works if it's global. It won't be. 3. China weaponizes Western AI fear Every time the West debates pausing, Beijing reads it as an opening. Western safety concerns are being converted into a strategic advantage for an adversary with no equivalent debate. 4. Europe is already behind — and falling Thiel compares Europe's position to Minitel — the French internet that technically worked but was lapped by history. The regulatory instinct that feels like caution is actually surrender. 5. The political instability feedback loop Stagnation produces Weimar-style politics. Thiel gives a democratic socialist 50% odds of winning the White House in 2028 — not because he wants that, but because stagnant economies radicalize electorates. The core bet: the risk of moving fast is real but bounded. The risk of stagnation is already happening, and its political consequences may be unrecoverable. That's not recklessness. It's a different risk calculus than most people are running.
1
1
2
409
Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasury yield? Maybe not, but for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion that if the 10-year yield were to fall 100 bps, an investor would make 11.9%, while only losing 1.9% if the yield were to rise to 6%.
57
139
38
1,082
393,359
Funny how @KingAbdullahII failed to mention how Jordan illegally occupied the West Bank from 1948-1967, formally annexed it in 1950, and ethnically cleansed the territory of Jews in the Old City of Jerusalem. In all that time, they never created a Palestinian state. Then, in 1988, King Hussein, his father, stripped West Bank Palestinian residents of Jordanian citizenship overnight, another illegal move. Now King Abdullah comes to the UN lectures about “de facto annexation” and international law? King Abdullah doesn’t want you to know that that reason they didn’t declare a Palestinian state (and the reason Egypt didn’t either when they controlled Gaza), is because there was never a national identity known as “Palestinian” in the Arab world. This concept only developed with the PLO and Yasser Arafat in the 1960s.
315
3,195
185
9,407
141,997
As for the Fed, it raised rates last week as expected, and the market wants several more hikes. The SOFR curve is considerably more hawkish than the Fed’s own dot plot, which as usual is all over the place. The biggest development as far as I am concerned is that the 10-year real yield has now risen to above the economy’s real potential growth rate.
16
31
3
244
30,932
State GDP Coincident Index 46 states grew, 2 unch, only 2 contracted. As a result 1-6 month diffusion indexes all above 90, consistent with sustained expansion. Recession Probability Model edged down from already low level to 1.8%. U.S. ECONOMY MINIMAL RECESSION RISK!! (Ned Davis Research)
4
24
2,011
Easy retweeted
The race for AGI Script: Sherpa by Pocket FM Video: Seedance 2.5
🤖 Made with AI
833
3,392
1,014
21,825
3,664,419
Foreign Investors have now bought $942 Billion of U.S. Stocks over the last 12 months, the most in history 🚨 🚨
42
146
26
775
95,250
Less than 5% of S&P 500 stocks yield more than the 10-year Treasury yield, the fewest since May 2007.
3
14
8
64
67,438
The S&P 500 has rarely traded outside of its nearly 100-year trend channel. While the weight-of-the-evidence still supports equities, the overshoot adds to a growing list of indicators suggesting a late-cycle environment.
47
100
8
623
81,401
Citadel rugged Leopold. Fund was up 439% through June. One brutal month and got margin called margin called. Citadel bought the entire public equity book on July 30. And unwound 80% of that book in Aug for fat profits. This weekend - Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk all calling for a slowdown in AI development. Three people who have never agreed on anything suddenly on the same page. They're about to Margin call a lot of people this time. Almost feels like it is planned.
71
59
10
1,487
178,224
DB Reid: Buy-backs have turned into issuance for the hyperscalers
8
17
2
87
8,868
The bull market is gaining momentum: The 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 has now risen for 329 consecutive trading sessions, the 4th-strongest streak over the last 10 years. This follows a previous 460-session run that briefly ended in April 2025 following "Liberation Day," bringing the combined streak to ~800 sessions, which would be the 3rd-longest since 1990. For perspective, the longest such stretch lasted 1,448 days during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Historically, when the 200-day moving average was rising, the S&P 500 returned +8.5% per year on average since 1999. By comparison, when the 200-day moving average was falling, the S&P 500 returned just +0.1% per year on average. History suggests the bullish trend is far from over.
112
232
40
2,196
292,246
Most repetitive aspects of society and systems is human behavior. We categorize and schedule for such repetition. Fed stopped raising rates in 1959, 1999, 2007, 2019,.. 2027..? and the following year recession... History doesn't always repeat, ex-almost ALWAYS! Still 1 more year worth of good times (2027), but likely to see bond market start to signal, regardless of fiscal debt, next year. #economy #election2028 #olympic2028 @GunjanJS @carlquintanilla @jasonpizzino @awealthofcs @michaeljburry
1
14
1
53
3,347
Bloomberg's US Financial Conditions index has loosened to its most accommodative since the 1990s. This measure accounts for money market, corporate and muni spreads, stock values and implied stock and bond volatility.
42
167
31
711
148,579
Not for the long term.. At today's valuation, the historical evidence suggests that expecting another decade of 10–15% real annualized returns is becoming increasingly difficult to justify. The market can absolutely continue higher in the months—but the further valuations stretch above historical norms, the more dependent future returns become on extraordinary earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. Bullish tape. Increasingly scary secular picture. Those aren't contradictory statements..
12
41
2
182
13,114
I found this map from 1950. Notice how Gaza belonged to Egypt and the West Bank belonged to Jordan, and there was no Palestine. Jordan occupied the West Bank and Egypt occupied Gaza from 1948 to 1967, and during those years not once did ‘Palestinians’ try to establish an independent Palestinian state. In fact, they only started calling for a Palestinian state after they joined forces with their Egyptian and Jordanian occupiers and lost the war they started against Israel in 1967, when Israel took over Gaza and the West Bank. The whole Palestinian narrative is a lie.
796
6,282
233
21,115
455,274
US stocks have never been this disconnected from each other: The median 63-day correlation between individual S&P 500 stocks and the index itself is down to +0.10, the lowest on record. This measures how closely individual stocks move with the broader index, with a reading this low meaning the index is being driven by a small group of stocks while most move independently. This figure has dropped -71% over the last 5 months. By comparison, during the March 2025 selloff, the median 63-day correlation surged to as much as +0.76. To put this into perspective, the previous all-time low was +0.16 following the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst. The market is more concentrated than ever.
81
151
17
1,136
207,448
The idea that muslims are poor brown victims of colonisation is probably the greatest act of gaslighting ever committed. Reality is quite literally the opposite.
186
4,328
71
21,095
174,766
You can now set Claude Code's output style to Concise. Claude leads with the result, keeps responses short, and still gives full detail when you ask. Turn it on in /config → Output style, or set "outputStyle": "Concise" in settings.json.
946
1,001
767
19,380
3,356,007