I have been following this issue for a long time, and my impression is that Russia is preparing a "complex" attack on Lithuania. This potential attack will be carried out through the integrated and simultaneous action of several elements. Cyber ​​attacks, ground operations, missile strikes, drone strikes, and sabotage of energy lines will all be carried out at the same time. The aim is to cripple Lithuania and gauge NATO's response. They will proceed to the next stage depending on the reaction. Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament on 17 September that Polish, Ukrainian and NATO intelligence pointed to a “most likely scenario” of hybrid drone or missile strikes on Ukraine-supporting NATO states, including Poland, that Moscow would present as accidents in order to test Article 5 resolve. The remarks followed recent drone incidents near the Polish-Ukrainian border. France After a meeting with intelligence chiefs and party leaders on 18 September, President Emmanuel Macron said the Russian hybrid threat against Europe and France had intensified. He ordered a government plan to protect critical infrastructure and defence-industry sites from drones and cyber attacks, citing recent incidents including the Leipzig case. Germany On 1 September authorities formally attributed the early-August attempted explosive-drone incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport (near a Ukrainian cargo aircraft used for arms shipments) to Russian military intelligence. A separate professionally prepared cache of two handguns and ammunition, discovered in woodland near Berlin in late 2025, remains under investigation for possible foreign-intelligence links and planned attacks; officials have not ruled out Russian involvement. Estonia On 17 September Prime Minister Kristen Michal said a Russian general mobilisation would sufficiently change Estonia’s threat assessment for the government to close the land border immediately. The security cabinet had already reviewed such contingencies; officials stressed this was routine preparedness, not a prediction of imminent mobilisation. Lithuania Civil-protection officials confirmed that updated evacuation plans for Vilnius include a southward corridor toward Poland; authorities in Poland’s Podlaskie region are preparing the area as a possible transit route for Baltic evacuees. These plans pre-date the latest warnings and form part of broader regional civil-defence work. On 15 September an Italian NATO fighter shot down a drone that entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus; officials said it carried an explosive and was probably Russian-made. Belarus (context) Four-day Western Operational Command exercises ran 15–18 September at ranges near the Polish and Lithuanian borders, including sites close to the Suwałki Gap. Minsk described them as defensive (border security, counter-sabotage, drone defence) and below Vienna Document notification thresholds. NATO Military Committee chair Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone stated on 19 September that the alliance has roughly 4 000 pages of eastern-flank plans covering scenarios from “minimal crisis” to full attack and that “the structure, soldiers and weapons are ready,” while repeating that no imminent conventional assault is currently assessed.