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Traders Have Reached a Consensus on the Fed Rate
The current probability on Polymarket that the rate will remain unchanged is 93%
Why the probability has turned out this way:
> The political factor of the U.S. elections
> Certain movements in the bond market, including falling yields
> The de facto freeze in the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which is providing some relief to the oil market
I believe that betting on “no change” is definitely justified right now, at least because a potential rate hike is highly likely to occur at the December meeting
The meeting itself is tomorrow, and we’ll see what decision the Fed makes
What are your expectations regarding the rate decision?
The Central Bank of Russia left its key rate unchanged
Overall, the decision is strictly in line with market expectations and my personal analysis
> One interesting point from the press conference was that the Central Bank chair said the discussion focused solely on leaving the rate unchanged, even though some board members were in favor of raising it
This provides some insight for the next meeting, which will take place shortly before the New Year, specifically on December 18
Did you buy “no change” or “increase” options? If so, what was your rationale?
The Central Bank of Russia left its key rate unchanged
Overall, the decision is strictly in line with market expectations and my personal analysis
> One interesting point from the press conference was that the Central Bank chair said the discussion focused solely on leaving the rate unchanged, even though some board members were in favor of raising it
This provides some insight for the next meeting, which will take place shortly before the New Year, specifically on December 18
Did you buy “no change” or “increase” options? If so, what was your rationale?
The Central Bank of Russia will leave the interest rate unchanged
That’s the view of most traders on polymarket, the “no change” price is already at 91¢
Why do many believe there won’t be a rate cut?
> Although inflation is stable, it remains at a high level (>6%)
> The fall tax hike and tax indexation
> Overall, the macroeconomic situation isn’t ready for this yet
Can already buy “no change” though i’ll wait another day or two
The meeting itself will take place on October 23
What are your thoughts on the bank’s expected decision?
TenFive retweeted
I've talked to the Polymarket team many times, both as a KOL and as a builder/trader in the ecosystem and honestly, it's funny to see all this FUD that haters are trying so hard to push
If you're an active user you probably remember @shayne_coplan or @MatthewModabber sliding into traders and KOLs DMs, asking for feedback, connecting with ppls and just genuinely wanting to chat
This was literally not that long ago and Shayne was already a billionaire at the time
I genuinely can't think of another billionaire who would PERSONALLY REACH OUT FIRST to regular users just to talk to them
That says a lot about him.
I've been watching the platform evolve and seeing all the updates they've shipped over the past year
Honestly, we're growing at an INSANE pace
You can love or hate @Polymarket but I genuinely believe they're leading the prediction market industry and driving mass adoption.
Yes, I agree that the team sometimes makes mistakes and some of them can look pretty cringe
But they fix them and more importantly IT'S NOT THAT BIG OF A DEAL
C'mon guys, we're talking about one of the fastest-growing startups out there, a company that has grown massively in just one year
Of course people are gonna make mistakes along the way. That's completely normal
Just give them more time. They're already doing an incredible amount of work
At the end of the day all this FUD is just another stress test
And I believe Polymarket will come out of it even stronger
This is total nonsense.
We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece.
Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together.
After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception.
But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else.
It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal.
Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him.
Enough of this stupid FUD.
The end.
The Central Bank of Russia will leave the interest rate unchanged
That’s the view of most traders on polymarket, the “no change” price is already at 91¢
Why do many believe there won’t be a rate cut?
> Although inflation is stable, it remains at a high level (>6%)
> The fall tax hike and tax indexation
> Overall, the macroeconomic situation isn’t ready for this yet
Can already buy “no change” though i’ll wait another day or two
The meeting itself will take place on October 23
What are your thoughts on the bank’s expected decision?
Russian Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged
The probability of “no change” on Polymarket was just under 70%, but it played out although it was unclear right up until the end what decision the board of directors would make
Now it will be interesting to see the clash between political will from above and the central bank’s leadership, in other words the same situation as in the US
What’s next for the Bank of Russia’s interest rate market?
> We’ve seen poor inflation data alongside positive figures for the budget deficit and current oil prices, the situation remains uncertain for now
Probabilities for the next meeting are currently roughly equal between “no change” and a cut, so for now, we can only assess the upcoming trade
What are your thoughts on the future trajectory of the key rate?
TenFive retweeted
What a game we’re watching tonight
1-0 at halftime and just a 59% chance for the favorite
Polymarket clearly knows something 👀
SpaceX's IPO will remain the largest in 2026
The price of SpaceX options is already at 65¢ on Polymarket, even though it had fallen to 37¢ earlier this month
Why have traders changed their minds so drastically?
> Anthropic’s main competitor has yet to make an official IPO announcement
> According to Reuters, investors at a meeting with Anthropic’s management lowered the company’s valuation from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion
> There’s very little time left
For us, all of this means that SpaceX is gaining an advantage not only as the deadline approaches but also due to its competitor’s falling valuation
I’m just keeping an eye on the trade for now, but the final market picture is already taking shape
Do you think Anthropic will go public this year?
Traders Are Losing Faith in Antropic’s 2026 IPO
In just over a month, the price of “Yes” has fallen from 95¢ to 78¢, which is quite a significant drop
Why did this happen?
> The prospectus still hasn’t been released, even though it was supposed to come out in early September and a draft version later leaked online
> Capex is rising sharply, they stated they want to spend more than half a trillion dollars on cloud infrastructure
> Significant existential risk posed by advanced artificial intelligence
The only thing that slightly mitigates the situation is that the company is projecting its first operating profit in Q2 2026
Personally i wouldn’t make any decisions yet about buying “Yes” or “No” options, because Anthropic hasn’t officially released the prospectus or announced new IPO dates
According to preliminary data, the IPO is expected to take place after the US midterm elections, but i don’t like the fact that a “risk-off” sentiment among market participants could also kick in, which would definitely hinder the placement
How do you assess the company’s metrics as outlined in the prospectus?
Epic Games is rapidly losing ground on its chances of an IPO in 2026
On Polymarket the odds of an EG IPO have dropped to 2¢ in the two months since my last tweet
My previous thoughts remain the same, they definitely won’t hold an IPO this year (if they ever do one at all)
I also noticed that trading volume on the event has risen from 800,000 to 7.5 million
Has anyone placed a trade on Epic Games?
Epic Games will not launch an IPO in 2026
On Polymarket, Epic Games is listed among the companies expected to go public by 2027
Reasons why they won’t have an IPO this year:
> Majority shareholder Tim Sweeney does not want to dilute his stake
> Although the game store itself is unprofitable, their biggest game, Fortnite, is constantly growing and generating more and more profit
> Tencent, the second largest shareholder, has the resources to bail out the company in the event of certain problems, which are not currently anticipated
> Major corporations such as Sony and Disney have already purchased shares in Epic Games and may continue to do so
Overall, the likelihood that they will not go public in 2026 is very high and the trade is well justified
What do you think, will investors agree to dilute their stakes for an IPO in the future or not?
Industrial inflation did not have a significant impact on interest rate probabilities
PPI data was released and like the CPI it exceeded expectations, and by a fairly wide margin
- PPI m/m: 1.3% (prev: 0.5%)
- PPI y/y: 6.3% (prev: 5.4%)
- Core PPI m/m: 0.7% (prev: 0.2%)
- Core PPI y/y: 5.0% (prev: 4.6%)
The data shows that both the regular and core PPI are rising, overall its clear why this is happening:
> The main reason, once again, lies in oil and fuel prices in general, since the PPI is an index that tracks inflation at an early stage, that is during the production of goods
For us, this is yet another factor pointing toward a rate hike, as we see that inflation continues to rise sharply
I think that by next week, we’ll have a rough idea of the interim decision on the rate and whether to buy “no change” or “increase” options
What are your thoughts following the release of the CPI and PPI data?
Inflation in the US Is Rising Along With the Likelihood of a Rate Hike
CPI data was released an hour ago:
- CPI m/m: 0.6% (prev: 0.4%)
- CPI y/y: 3.7% (prev: 3.4%)
- Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%)
- Core CPI y/y: 2.6% (prev: 2.4%)
The data came in higher than expected, and the probability of the rate on Polymarket remaining unchanged fell from 82¢ to 56¢
> The scenario i wrote about back in early September has played out, we have major problems in the oil market and the situation isn’t improving, especially due to the ongoing clashes between the Houthis and Saudi Arabian forces
Inflation is feeling the impact and we’re seeing this result right away
The last thing i wrote about was the “risk-off” sentiment across many markets and the DXY is now at its highest level in the past year and a half (which is very concerning)
There’s a lot of news coming tomorrow as well, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the PPI in particular
Did anyone take a position anticipating a rate hike? If so, what do you plan to do now?
Inflation in the US Is Rising Along With the Likelihood of a Rate Hike
CPI data was released an hour ago:
- CPI m/m: 0.6% (prev: 0.4%)
- CPI y/y: 3.7% (prev: 3.4%)
- Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%)
- Core CPI y/y: 2.6% (prev: 2.4%)
The data came in higher than expected, and the probability of the rate on Polymarket remaining unchanged fell from 82¢ to 56¢
> The scenario i wrote about back in early September has played out, we have major problems in the oil market and the situation isn’t improving, especially due to the ongoing clashes between the Houthis and Saudi Arabian forces
Inflation is feeling the impact and we’re seeing this result right away
The last thing i wrote about was the “risk-off” sentiment across many markets and the DXY is now at its highest level in the past year and a half (which is very concerning)
There’s a lot of news coming tomorrow as well, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the PPI in particular
Did anyone take a position anticipating a rate hike? If so, what do you plan to do now?
The probability of an FRS rate hike on Polymarket continues to fall
On Friday, the NFP data was released and it was much worse than expected (29k, when expectations were 89k)
What this means for us:
> A difficult decision lies ahead before the election and the latest NFP data does indeed suggest that rates will remain unchanged
> On the other hand, we’re facing major problems in the oil market, both with prices in general and with shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandab Strait, especially since news is now emerging that Saudi Arabia wants to launch a military operation against the Houthis
> Its also impossible to ignore that the DXY continues to rise alongside long and medium term bonds
To sum up briefly, the market is mixed and is gradually shifting into a “risk-off” phase
The FOMC minutes will be released today, it will also be interesting to see how the market reacts
What decision do you currently expect regarding the Fed’s interest rate?
Follow-up on the OpenAI IPO Trade
On Polymarket, the probability that OpenAI’s IPO will not take place in 2026 continues to rise, the “Yes” price is now 95¢
What is the main reason for not going public this year?
> Their main competitor Anthropic has not yet held an IPO and has not even publicly released a prospectus
And as Sam Altman told Fortune, this year is not the right time to go public
Why do you think Altman postponed the IPO?
Trying to Profit from OpenAI’s IPO
Traders on Polymarket don’t believe OpenAI will go public
Why Is the Probability So High?
> The IPO has been postponed until 2027, according to sources cited by the WSJ
> Anthropic is postponing its listing until after the US midterm elections
> As many experts have said before, OpenAI wants to see how its main competitor’s IPO goes
Because of this might want to start accumulating “yes” contracts betting that OpenAI won’t go public in 2026
When do you think they’ll go public and what will their valuation be?
Traders Are Losing Faith in Antropic’s 2026 IPO
In just over a month, the price of “Yes” has fallen from 95¢ to 78¢, which is quite a significant drop
Why did this happen?
> The prospectus still hasn’t been released, even though it was supposed to come out in early September and a draft version later leaked online
> Capex is rising sharply, they stated they want to spend more than half a trillion dollars on cloud infrastructure
> Significant existential risk posed by advanced artificial intelligence
The only thing that slightly mitigates the situation is that the company is projecting its first operating profit in Q2 2026
Personally i wouldn’t make any decisions yet about buying “Yes” or “No” options, because Anthropic hasn’t officially released the prospectus or announced new IPO dates
According to preliminary data, the IPO is expected to take place after the US midterm elections, but i don’t like the fact that a “risk-off” sentiment among market participants could also kick in, which would definitely hinder the placement
How do you assess the company’s metrics as outlined in the prospectus?
Anthropic's IPO chances in 2026 are dwindling
Price of the Anthropic goes public event on Polymarket has fallen from 96 cents to 87 cents
The company did not release its prospectus this week, and the publication date has been pushed back to late september, according to Reuters
Media reports also indicate that the timing of the IPO itself has changed, the expected date is now expected to be around the time of the US midterm elections
What does this mean for us?
> It’s more of a negative scenario, i would start reducing my positions a bit as the date approaches, because the risk is really increasing
Why do you think they postponed the release of the prospectus and the IPO itself?
The probability of an FRS rate hike on Polymarket continues to fall
On Friday, the NFP data was released and it was much worse than expected (29k, when expectations were 89k)
What this means for us:
> A difficult decision lies ahead before the election and the latest NFP data does indeed suggest that rates will remain unchanged
> On the other hand, we’re facing major problems in the oil market, both with prices in general and with shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandab Strait, especially since news is now emerging that Saudi Arabia wants to launch a military operation against the Houthis
> Its also impossible to ignore that the DXY continues to rise alongside long and medium term bonds
To sum up briefly, the market is mixed and is gradually shifting into a “risk-off” phase
The FOMC minutes will be released today, it will also be interesting to see how the market reacts
What decision do you currently expect regarding the Fed’s interest rate?
Traders on Polymarket have changed their view on interest rates
New PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data was released yesterday
- PCE m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.1%)
- PCE y/y: 3.4% (prev: 3.4%)
- Core PCE m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.1%)
- Core PCE y/y: 3% (prev: 3%)
The data came in lower than expected and the price of the option for a rate hike fell to 32¢
Why I think this is very strange and that a rate hike is undervalued:
> The main reason is that the BEA changed its data calculation methodology and the figures suddenly became much lower than forecast
Because of this I’m still puzzled (generally due to the market situation and the continued rise of the DXY), and tomorrow we’ll see the nonfarm payrolls data, which will also be a key indicator for us
What are your expectations for tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls data?
TenFive retweeted
I may have a little something to say about this at Token 2049. See you in Singapore.
🔮
Revenue figures for Polymarket and HL have been released
The chart shows that there’s a significant difference in the numbers between the two projects
Although Hyperliquid is generally performing well as a business, Poly appears to be on a more solid footing
What are your thoughts on the ongoing competition between HL and Poly?
Traders on Polymarket have changed their view on interest rates
New PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data was released yesterday
- PCE m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.1%)
- PCE y/y: 3.4% (prev: 3.4%)
- Core PCE m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.1%)
- Core PCE y/y: 3% (prev: 3%)
The data came in lower than expected and the price of the option for a rate hike fell to 32¢
Why I think this is very strange and that a rate hike is undervalued:
> The main reason is that the BEA changed its data calculation methodology and the figures suddenly became much lower than forecast
Because of this I’m still puzzled (generally due to the market situation and the continued rise of the DXY), and tomorrow we’ll see the nonfarm payrolls data, which will also be a key indicator for us
What are your expectations for tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls data?
The “no change” price on Polymarket fell to 30¢ following the Fed meeting
Just over a week has passed since the US Federal Reserve’s last meeting and there are already some ideas about the next rate decision
Why has the probability of a rate hike risen so sharply over the past 1.5 days?
> Yesterday, member of the Federal Reserve Board Michael Barr stated that monetary policy should be tightened further
> The decision itself was approved by all 12 members
> Kevin Warsh pointed out that the Fed’s decisions carry more weight than political will
With just over a month until the next meeting, let’s keep an eye on the news and data
I still believe that buying “increase” options right now is a smart move for the reasons mentioned above
Next week, the key focus will be on the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data
What do you think about Michael Barr’s comments?
The trade on Epic Games not launching their IPO in 2026 is working out
At the end of August, I posted that EG wouldn’t go public in 2026, at that time the “yes” price was 5¢
A little over a month has passed and the probability has dropped to 2%
> Overall can hold on until expiration, but can also start closing out positions now
An interesting development occurred a week and a half ago, when the price jumped from 4¢ to 12¢, as I understand it this was due to trades on the pre-IPO market and related manipulation
Why do you think EG doesn’t want to go public this year after all?
Epic Games will not launch an IPO in 2026
On Polymarket, Epic Games is listed among the companies expected to go public by 2027
Reasons why they won’t have an IPO this year:
> Majority shareholder Tim Sweeney does not want to dilute his stake
> Although the game store itself is unprofitable, their biggest game, Fortnite, is constantly growing and generating more and more profit
> Tencent, the second largest shareholder, has the resources to bail out the company in the event of certain problems, which are not currently anticipated
> Major corporations such as Sony and Disney have already purchased shares in Epic Games and may continue to do so
Overall, the likelihood that they will not go public in 2026 is very high and the trade is well justified
What do you think, will investors agree to dilute their stakes for an IPO in the future or not?
New details are emerging about Kalshi’s actions
Its already been determined how the company inflates the number of users on its platform
They’ve even figured out the formula, which surprised me a little
I’m still waiting for answers and details from Kalshi, because inflating volume and user metrics isn’t exactly a good thing
The “no change” price on Polymarket fell to 30¢ following the Fed meeting
Just over a week has passed since the US Federal Reserve’s last meeting and there are already some ideas about the next rate decision
Why has the probability of a rate hike risen so sharply over the past 1.5 days?
> Yesterday, member of the Federal Reserve Board Michael Barr stated that monetary policy should be tightened further
> The decision itself was approved by all 12 members
> Kevin Warsh pointed out that the Fed’s decisions carry more weight than political will
With just over a month until the next meeting, let’s keep an eye on the news and data
I still believe that buying “increase” options right now is a smart move for the reasons mentioned above
Next week, the key focus will be on the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data
What do you think about Michael Barr’s comments?
The Fed raised the rate by 0.25 bps
Rate was raised from 3.75% to 4%, the market on Polymarket turned out to be completely right
I’ll share my further thoughts on the results in a separate post later
For now its immediately clear how the market reacted: gold fell 1.3% and the DXY rose 0.3%
What are your preliminary expectations for the next Fed meeting?
Really Cool Tool for Analyzing CT Creators on X
Many people know about and have seen ctbubbles.com, a site for viewing data on many crypto influencers
An update was recently released in the form of browser extension that shows in real time, an account’s growth over the past 24 hours/week/month, as well as other metrics such as views and engagement rate
There are many other features as well, feel free to check out the extension and give it a try
chromewebstore.google.com/de…
