Living the dream
Joined January 2021
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I've gotten a bunch of questions recently on whether or not I'd be posting CBB plays this year. Figured it easiest to answer publicly.
My current plan is to not post plays publicly any longer.
The reasoning for that follows below...
1/x
@robpizzola recently mentioned pros were struggling to win at cbb this year. Let's take a look at market efficiency for Totals. Here's the avg absolute mean error for both the opener (top) and close (bottom) by year.
If my numbers are right*, the market opener this year is *significantly* more accurate than the close from all recent years. 👀
* These numbers exclude some games where I don't generate predictions
* Someone double-check my numbers, please.
I find this remarkable for a few different reasons:
1. One of the major cbb groups exited the market this year. This would theoretically make the market less efficient.
2. The avg closing total goes up every year. In general, the higher the total, the higher the AAME is, so that's a headwind.
3. Market manipulation is supposedly at an all time high if you listen to people who talk about cbb markets.
Is anyone maintaining a list of scammy offshore books that is relatively up-to-date? Can someone point me at that?
"Would you take Michigan beating OSU if it meant losing every cbb bet you made that day" is all of a sudden not a hypothetical
Telemachus retweeted
Gosh I love my annual Thanksgiving weekend traditions! 😁
GO FU**ING BLUEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!
Telemachus retweeted
Before you guys send hate towards Ryan Day remember you aren’t just attacking a coach but, a father, a husband, and a christian. One bad game shouldn’t takeaway what he’s brought to this program and we should be looking forward to seeing him continue to lead our Buckeyes.
Getting lots of money down on cbb extra games used to be a fun challenge but not sure it's worth the time investment and accounts this year. What would you do in our position?
24%Work harder. Find outs.
31%Small fills quietly.
27%Release 'em, torch market
19%Play early, torch market
431 votes • Final results