Energy Economist @DallasFed. All views shared here are my own.
Dallas, TX
Joined September 2017
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W e are hiring for an Energy Economist to join the research department at the Dallas Fed. The search is for junior or senior candidates. Come join our vibrant and growing research community! JOE listing below. #EconJobMarket aeaweb.org/joe/listing.php?J…
Excited to share that a new version of our paper on the effect of data centers is posted. Three new findings worth noting: 1) Accounting for regional trade flows reveals that regions with little DC growth can have outsized price effects due to foregone trade and spillovers...🧵
Our research from back in the spring when GA first suspended the gas tax suggests pass-through to pump prices is limited to around 65%.
dallasfed.org/~/media/docume…
BREAKING: Georgia Gov. Kemp has just suspended the state's excise tax on fuel for 30 days, taking effect at 12:01am tomorrow. This will reduce gas prices ~33c/gal and diesel ~37c/gal. As this tax is at the wholesale level, it will take several days to be passed along.
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Reid Taylor retweeted
If you ban diesel exports, this is what happens:
1) Without the overseas market, diesel inventories start to accumulate domestically. This temporarily puts downward pressure on wholesale prices in the US, likely more so in the Gulf Coast than anywhere else. HOWEVER
Given the recent resurgence in gas prices, it's a good time to bring back our work based on price spikes and tax holidays from earlier in the war.
dallasfed.org/research/paper…
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Reid Taylor retweeted
Bournemouth to Newcastle is the Premier League's longest road trip, and it's happening on Saturday 🗺️
A 700-mile round journey, the two stadiums are roughly as far apart as Boston and Atlantic City. Here is how the interval looks on a map of the USA 😯
Reid Taylor retweeted
Great speaking with the great @KVanthof of Diamondback Energy for the latest episode of the @DallasFed's Southwest Economy Podcast!
dallasfed.org/research/swe/2…
Another all-time battery charging record at 7.8 GW this morning in ERCOT helped by 30GW of solar and prices <$20 during morning charge window. @grid_status
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Our paper on the effect of data centers shows this, empirically. The impact to retail rates matters not just on the change in market prices from the increased demand, but the current balance between fixed costs and variable costs in the retail rate. conference.nber.org/conf_pap…
Right. Here's a new paper from ESIG/Brattle with a great graphic to cut against simplistic narratives of data centers always increasing/reducing rates for existing customers.
TL;DR - it depends. For e.g. your rates can go UP if your utility has not fully hedged. Just ask some ratepayers in PJM!
As the paper put it:
"The rate impact of large loads is not a foregone conclusion in either direction. It is an empirical question that depends on the specific conditions of the utility system, prevailing market dynamics, market design, regulatory framework, and rate design."
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Reid Taylor retweeted
Inflation data isn't capturing the affordability crisis in home insurance, @MarkGongloff says (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Reid Taylor retweeted
Dallas Fed Energy Survey: Oil and gas activity rises amid elevated uncertainty, and the survey gauges to what extent drilling plans have changed since the start of the year and reassess break-even prices. #OOTT dallasfed.org/research/surve…
Reid Taylor retweeted
The rise in insurance is not just a pricing issue; it is a growing source of financial stress, inequality and geographic sorting. The increase may quietly reshape who can afford to leave, who is forced to stay, and who ultimately owns homes in communities with high climate risk.
For many households over time, insurance has become a more substantial component of the monthly mortgage payment. Read the latest on Dallas Fed Economics: dallasfed.org/research/econo…
Happy to see our work cited. Such an important topic!
Texas saddles up for data center clash dlvr.it/TRkbpB
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Happy to share newest working paper on data centers and wholesale electricity markets: dallasfed.org/research/paper… We find that data centers have already raised wholesale electricity prices and increased grid emissions, and are set to drive large increases over the next 3 years.
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We use a least-cost dispatch model to simulate outcomes (in the past and future) under multiple scenarios to capture the uncertainty in data center utilization and build-out. The effects vary widely by region due the structure of existing power plants and excess capacity.
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